CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro op and ensembles makes sense from movement point of view. NE and then N and NW. Nevermind where this happens, but something like that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 theres no way UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 25 OCT 2012 Time : 014500 UTC Lat : 19:09:16 N Lon : 76:09:43 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.2 / 939.7mb/119.8kt Dvorak is worthless when recon is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro op and ensembles makes sense from movement point of view. NE and then N and NW. Nevermind where this happens, but something like that makes sense. Agreed. I see a Euro like movement but adjusted further north a bit due to Sandy's increased strength making it initially resistant to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Check out the documentations tab...I didn't see that until today. It explains the diagrams. There's a documentations tab? lol. Oops. Thanks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11pm advisory not out yet does not happen often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11pm - up to 90 mph 954mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 LOCATION...19.4N 76.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 here is a pretty good video of broadcast mets talking about the possibilities of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11pm advisory not out yet does not happen often From NHC 11:00pm advisory: ...EYE OF SANDY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 interesting THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still seems like they aren't giving any weight to the op ecmwf, still a very gfs like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 interesting THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. For science or operational reasons? Or maybe a mix of both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still seems like they aren't giving any weight to the op ecmwf, still a very gfs like track. It's west of the gfs track though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It was a joke about the NAM rapidly intensifying storms. To be honest, have not looked at the NAM this evening. Hahaha I must've missed the joke part... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's west of the gfs track though They still moved the cone eastward a bit as they said in the disco, partly because the 18z GFS went that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 They still moved the cone eastward a bit as they said in the disco, partly because the 18z GFS went that way... Yeah I was basically saying that the western portion of the day 4-5 has been shifted east and isn't even in the area of uncertainty where the euro makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I was basically saying that the western portion of the day 4-5 has been shifted east and isn't even in the area of uncertainty where the euro makes landfall. Or the GFDL.. or the NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wouldn't forecast it, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if it tried to make another run between Cuba and the Bahamas. If she holds together over Cuba as well as she did over Jamaica...I don't see why she wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jesus that NAM extrapolation is dire - period. NAM flack aside, pray that doesn't set at hour 84 like that because that really is heading for something truly unique there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jesus that NAM extrapolation is dire - period. NAM flack aside, pray that doesn't set at hour 84 like that because that really is heading for something truly unique there - I am so lost... wasnt it just going to be a bit further north version of the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy still has alot of warm water to navigate. should keep tropical characteristics longer than expected IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jesus that NAM extrapolation is dire - period. NAM flack aside, pray that doesn't set at hour 84 like that because that really is heading for something truly unique there - The initial portion is garbage though, emerges at 996 with some sort of vort max SW of it and they sort of rotate around each other for a bit. I buy the dive to the NW near Florida towards that weakness until the troughs influence finally sets in, but it actually dives SW for a bit and it is garbage after that. I know what you are saying though, run a dgex 0z and post it on the front page and watch the servers crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 interesting THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. I think there is some seriously doubt that forces are strong enough to phase the hurricane with the baroclinic trough. Being as strong as she is now, I think Sandy resists the baroclinic zone more than model guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think there is some seriously doubt that forces are strong enough to phase the hurricane with the baroclinic trough. Being as strong as she is now, I think Sandy resists the baroclinic zone more than model guidance suggests. I'm not sure it's that so much as the guidance insisting on maintaining a strongly warm core system even during baroclinic interaction. Although, yes, as you mentioned it's quite possible the storm does try to resist at least absorption initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jesus that NAM extrapolation is dire - period. NAM flack aside, pray that doesn't set at hour 84 like that because that really is heading for something truly unique there - Jet is setting up http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F25%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=200_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I am so lost... wasnt it just going to be a bit further north version of the EURO? The orientation of the phasing trough, and the position of Sandy along with the amount of energy diving in would result in an absolute bomb that would actually have enough cold air to dump feet of snow NW of it and tank the storm. The model is about 6 hours from just blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think there is some seriously doubt that forces are strong enough to phase the hurricane with the baroclinic trough. Being as strong as she is now, I think Sandy resists the baroclinic zone more than model guidance suggests. I agree, although if shear is enough to really strip the center of convection and then the phase occurs we still have a chance. We are expecting 30+ kts of shear from day 3 on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The orientation of the phasing trough, and the position of Sandy along with the amount of energy diving in would result in an absolute bomb that would actually have enough cold air to dump feet of snow NW of it and tank the storm. The model is about 6 hours from just blowing up. Ah ok. I thought he was talking more about the track itself as it looked like a NOGAPSish solution... but that would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think there is some seriously doubt that forces are strong enough to phase the hurricane with the baroclinic trough. Being as strong as she is now, I think Sandy resists the baroclinic zone more than model guidance suggests. I was wondering if the GFS was onto to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The orientation of the phasing trough, and the position of Sandy along with the amount of energy diving in would result in an absolute bomb that would actually have enough cold air to dump feet of snow NW of it and tank the storm. The model is about 6 hours from just blowing up. I feel like I'm in a good position to see at least some snow out of her, 15 miles south of BUF 880ft asl. Regardless i cant wait to watch this unfold from a meteorological perspective, its gonna be absolutely stunning no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.