Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I really wouldn't expect anything less too be honest with regards to track right now. I know the track is important down the road, however, without sufficient troughing or blocking we can forget a phase in time for this to happen...before I worry about track and such I want to at least see consistency with the evolution of the trough and how the blocking is handled. The blocking is there for sure wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The blocking is there for sure wiz. Yeah I think it's safe to say at this point the blocking will certainly be there...I'm also becoming more confident in the troughing amplifying enough. In the end it's just going to come down to the timing of the trough and how quickly Sandy accelerates northward...I'm starting to find it a bit difficult to believe Sandy is going to be making much eastward progression. One thing too is, with regards to the trough, American models always seem to be too quick with it's eastward progression and I think this is one error by the GFS right now. The NAM actually seems to handle the progression much better than the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So far... 00z NAM looks like 18z NAM on SLP placement through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So far... 00z NAM looks like 18z NAM on SLP placement through 33 36 00z looks a little better with the western ridge, a bit more digging with the eastern trough, and about same placement with the lp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I think it's safe to say at this point the blocking will certainly be there...I'm also becoming more confident in the troughing amplifying enough. In the end it's just going to come down to the timing of the trough and how quickly Sandy accelerates northward...I'm starting to find it a bit difficult to believe Sandy is going to be making much eastward progression. One thing too is, with regards to the trough, American models always seem to be too quick with it's eastward progression and I think this is one error by the GFS right now. The NAM actually seems to handle the progression much better than the GFS does. In addition to the many bias that the GFS has one that it has had for ages is that likes to weaken both blocks and the semi-permanent lows and highs too quickly; in addition it also has a tendency to spin down intense cyclones to quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 956.3 mb now wow Extrapolated per Jim Cantore. Official is still 961mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well folks I hear the sandman calling..no wait its the my lovely wife. TBC tomorrow...night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Please inform the Captain NAM that no SE FL visits are allowed (00z NAM SLP placement at 39 really close to SE FL) Well SLP is def SW at 42 on 00z compared to 48 on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 In addition to the many bias that the GFS has one that it has had for ages is that likes to weaken both blocks and the semi-permanent lows and highs too quickly; in addition it also has a tendency to spin down intense cyclones to quickly. Yeah we certainly have to take into account the biases of the models first and then go from there...which is also why I've been skeptical of the phasing early scenario b/c the Euro loves to do that, however, seeing the NAM be quite similar with the main features as the Euro that has opened my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gonna be close, but running out of time for major I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gonna be close, but running out of time for major I think. Yeah I don't think the winds will ramp up in time. We should be able to get the pressure low enough but winds will take some time to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can we lay off the NAM analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can we lay off the NAM analysis? There's a thread in the main forum for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can someone explain why a stronger storm would go out to sea. Shouldnt this also enhance downstream ridging? There's a lot of scrambling by minds to figure out what we are actually seeing in the models. This is evidenced by the word choices in these recent discussions. As an example, that business about holding its own as it cross the geopotential gradient into the event horizon of the trough is speculative, but it's based on idea that there will be a ton of shear impacting Sandy if/when she does get captured. Likewise, could/should an intenser Sandy dump latent heat into the downstream ridge, which would feed back on steering it inward, while clad, is also speculation - it does seem just as plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There's a thread in the main forum for that. I'm not even looking at it lol (the NAM that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm not even looking at it lol (the NAM that is). Maybe inside 24hr of a landfall it's useful, in the mid-lats anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 recon is 954.6 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Dear God if that trough gets near Sandy on the NAM.....it will have a 890 low east of HSE...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Dear God if that trough gets near Sandy on the NAM.....it will have a 890 low east of HSE...lol. Good job just getting all the weenies even more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That blocking ridge is pushing the NAM's domain limits anyways. FWIW, here's what the NAM's love child (ARW) is doing with the system. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/f87.gif lol at the MSLP issues there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Dear God if that trough gets near Sandy on the NAM.....it will have a 890 low east of HSE...lol. What are you using to see the NAM so early? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/10/24/some-impact-from-sandy-appears-more-likely/ Great post. I also like how you got into the phase diagram. I'm still trying to visualize asymmetrical vs symmetrical thermal gradients and how they relate to tropical and extra tropical storms but it sounds like asymmetrical means baroclinic which means thermal gradients and fronts. I'm also trying to visualize an asymmetric warm core system expanding its wind field while keeping its core. Fun things to do while I wait for the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I don't think the winds will ramp up in time. We should be able to get the pressure low enough but winds will take some time to catch up. I wouldn't forecast it, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if it tried to make another run between Cuba and the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just for the record... Sandy's official theme song is now "Magic Carpet Ride" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Great post. I also like how you got into the phase diagram. I'm still trying to visualize asymmetrical vs symmetrical thermal gradients and how they relate to tropical and extra tropical storms but it sounds like asymmetrical means baroclinic which means thermal gradients and fronts. I'm also trying to visualize an asymmetric warm core system expanding its wind field while keeping its core. Fun things to do while I wait for the 00z GFS Check out the documentations tab...I didn't see that until today. It explains the diagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 102 kt FL winds...several 80ish KT SMFRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wouldn't forecast it, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if it tried to make another run between Cuba and the Bahamas. Agreed. I wouldn't either. FL winds up to 100 knots in SE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are you using to see the NAM so early? Just wondering It was a joke about the NAM rapidly intensifying storms. To be honest, have not looked at the NAM this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can someone explain why a stronger storm would go out to sea. Shouldnt this also enhance downstream ridging? Perhaps a much stronger system is more initially resistant to phasing. But when you combine that factor with enhanced downstream ridging, I would think it would mean a later and further NORTH phase, but not a further EAST phase, since the stronger ridging downstream would prevent the storm from gaining longitude, but its resistance to phasing might help it gain more latitude. I really don't see this making a wild turn east and then a wild turn west again. I see it more resembling a just east of north track to a just west of north track...kinda like what Ryan was saying before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 theres no way UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 25 OCT 2012 Time : 014500 UTC Lat : 19:09:16 N Lon : 76:09:43 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.2 / 939.7mb/119.8kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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