gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Curious as to why? Do you think it will be harder to capture? I am an amateur but I would think yes although if does get captured after blowing up like this it could be historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can someone explain why a stronger storm would go out to sea. Shouldnt this also enhance downstream ridging? Going out to see isn't really correct. Downstream ridging is enhanced, but sometimes storms with very deep convection are directed by winds not just in the mid levels..but also upper levels. This sometimes causes storms to be affected by slight nuances in the flow at upper levels. However, latent heat pumps up downstream ridging. That outflow channel is a diabatic heat pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can someone explain why a stronger storm would go out to sea. Shouldnt this also enhance downstream ridging? can anyone explain what the box disco was saying about the longer this maintains as a warm core tropical system the more resistant to phasing it will be in crossing 5h heights and 1000-500mb thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 best looking storm by far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Going out to see isn't really correct. Downstream ridging is enhanced, but sometimes storms with very deep convection are directed by winds not just in the mid levels..but also upper levels. This sometimes causes storms to be affected by slight nuances in the flow at upper levels. However, latent heat pumps up downstream ridging. That outflow channel is a diabatic heat pump. I think in this case stronger outflow and a stronger/larger storm may prevent it from losing much longitude. The weakness in the ridge near Bermuda is minimal... the GFS tries to exploit it... but a stronger storm may pump up the ridging enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can anyone explain what the box disco was saying about the longer this maintains as a warm core tropical system the more resistant to phasing it will be in crossing 5h heights and 1000-500mb thicknesses. If you read the entire thing, it tells you why. The Caine vort becomes more dominant and resistant to the weaker vort entrained in the trough. Hence, a later phase, a longer phase so to speak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can anyone explain this (great disco anyway) WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE...A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLNS FORECAST HURRICANE SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BECOMING POST-TROPICAL /REMAINING WARM-CORED/ AS IT LOOPS WEST TOWARDS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL JET /SOMEWHERE IN PROXIMITY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION/ PARENT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT LAKES RGN. BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/. IN ADDITION...THROUGH PERSONAL COMMUNICATION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PREMATURELY PHASE SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HRS /ESPECIALLY A TROPICAL SYSTEM PHASING INTO A TROUGH/. SO LONG AS HURRICANE SANDY MAINTAINS...THE LONGER IT MAY RESIST CROSS H5 HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 THICKNESSES...RESULTING IN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF A TRACK TO THE RIGHT /ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS QUICKER AVOIDING THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/. BUT AS SEEN IN MODEL SOLNS...SANDY SLOWS WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD IT TRANSITION POST- TROPICAL...SANDY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO PHASE ACROSS H5 HEIGHTS WITH A SUBSEQUENT LEFT HOOK. ADDITIONAL COMMUNICATION HAS BROUGHT UP POINTS CONCERNING OVER- ZEALOUS CYCLONE DEEPENING BY MODEL SOLNS...AS WELL AS HANDLING STORM MERGERS POORLY. SHOULD A MERGER OCCUR...THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE SHOULD USURP THE WEAKER WAVE AND PREVAIL. After reading this post (I guess from an AFD - KBOX' ?) and looking at the ongoing intensification of Sandy and then looking at the forecast post tropical forecast pressures for the storm I got to thinking about my days as a marine meteorologist and ship router. My mentor said that a good rule to follow for the strength of a XTC after TC "instransification" is that as an XT low the central pressure is rarely lower than the lowest pressure when that cyclone was tropical. === now cpick: The answer for first part of the bolded AFD is basically that surface lows as they intensify especially those associated with a cold trough or cut off low aloft tend to move towards colder air (cut across thickness lines). Warm core systems tend not to do this. The latter part of the bolded post simply put survival of the fittest or in this case most intense low will "abosrb" the weaker low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If you read the entire thing, it tells you why. The Caine vort becomes more dominant and resistant to the weaker vort entrained in the trough. Hence, a later phase, a longer phase so to speak.. I sure he read the whole thing but was just asking for clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37410-pv-thinking-with-sandy-trough-interaction/page__gopid__1810694#entry1810694 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 cuban radar http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif FWIW, here's a map I made up with links to different radar sites on a hurricane tracking chart: http://www.stormmonitoring.com/radar.html I made it last year so I hope the links are all current! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 After reading this post (I guess from an AFD - KBOX' ?) and looking at the ongoing intensification of Sandy and then looking at the forecast post tropical forecast pressures for the storm I got to thinking about my days as a marine meteorologist and ship router. My mentor said that a good rule to follow for the strength of a XTC after TC "instransification" is that as an XT low the central pressure is rarely lower than the lowest pressure when that cyclone was tropical. === now cpick: The answer for first part of the bolded AFD is basically that surface lows as they intensify especially those associated with a cold trough or cut off low aloft tend to move towards colder air (cut across thickness lines). Warm core systems tend not to do this. The latter part of the bolded post simply put survival of the fittest or in this case most intense low will "abosrb" the weaker low. Which would mean a greater chance of a phase since the weaker low is absorb rather than a curve out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think in this case stronger outflow and a stronger/larger storm may prevent it from losing much longitude. The weakness in the ridge near Bermuda is minimal... the GFS tries to exploit it... but a stronger storm may pump up the ridging enough. If it continues, that's going to hurt any weakness to the northeast. That thing is off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think in this case stronger outflow and a stronger/larger storm may prevent it from losing much longitude. The weakness in the ridge near Bermuda is minimal... the GFS tries to exploit it... but a stronger storm may pump up the ridging enough. TC's tend to move along/towards warm tongue aloft (usually noted by 700-500 millibar thickness) are good for determining short 24 hour motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Which would mean a greater chance of a phase since the weaker low is absorb rather than a curve out to sea? Yes but this would assume Sandy IS the weaker low and a stronger coastal low forms associated with the C/O low. Now Sandy could remain strong and still get captured but not until "later" and or further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If it continues, that's going to hurt any weakness to the northeast. That thing is off to the races. So it would channel motion more directly north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With the phase... no phase million dollar question i.e keeping as a true tropical system. One would think the forward speed and track would be influenced possibly taking that left hook dependent on the axis and strength of the trof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yes but this would assume Sandy IS the weaker low and a stronger coastal low forms associated with the C/O low. Now Sandy could remain strong and still get captured but not until "later" and or further north. what i took away by reading it was basically that the 12z ecmwf OP was not really believable by box , bc a tropical sandy of that strength (being the dominant low also) would be more hesitant to phase and it is generally less likely of a mid atlantic left hook. unless sandy becomes a real mess by the carolina's and a LP from the Ohio valley SW is bombing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With the phase... no phase million dollar question i.e keeping as a true tropical system. One would think the forward speed and track would be influenced possibly taking that left hook dependent on the axis and strength of the trof? To some degree I would say yes but also the TC's size and strength come to bear. Its hard for a "massive" system to change its momentum rather abruptly. Think of a tractor trailer rig and a car on a road both going at the same speed. The car can stop sooner the truck can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it would channel motion more directly north? Well it could if the ridging is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 what i took away by reading it was basically that the 12z ecmwf OP was not really believable by box , bc a tropical sandy of that strength (being the dominant low also) would be more hesitant to phase and it is generally less likely of a mid atlantic left hook. unless sandy becomes a real mess by the carolina's and a LP from the Ohio valley SW is bombing? I can't really say what they were referring too; perhaps in a general way they were referring to some of the seemingly extreme pressure forecasts from the many model sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 which would bring a storm up the coast much faster Well it could if the ridging is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 which would bring a storm up the coast much faster No the storm's speed would also be dependent on both the intensity and proximity of the trough to the west. The poleward motion is a function of the west-east height/pressure gradient between the trough west and the ridge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No the storm's speed would also be dependent on both the intensity and proximity of the trough to the west. The poleward motion is a function of the west-east height/pressure gradient between the trough west and the ridge east. Thanks Andy... I was thinking of the same question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for the education between model runs, Andy et al. Alas, off to bed. Will see what fun things the models spew out in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 All I want to see tonight is for the NAM to continue having a Euro-like look to it and for the Euro to continue being consistent...that to me will say alot...I wouldn't even really care what the GFS does or shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 956.3 mb now wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 All I want to see tonight is for the NAM to continue having a Euro-like look to it and for the Euro to continue being consistent...that to me will say alot...I wouldn't even really care what the GFS does or shows. 21z SREFs at 87 hrs SLP position are spread out like a zoo http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/FCST/COM_US/ens.2012102421/surface_prs_87.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 21z SREFs at 87 hrs SLP position are spread out like a zoo http://www.emc.ncep....face_prs_87.gif I really wouldn't expect anything less too be honest with regards to track right now. I know the track is important down the road, however, without sufficient troughing or blocking we can forget a phase in time for this to happen...before I worry about track and such I want to at least see consistency with the evolution of the trough and how the blocking is handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks Andy... I was thinking of the same question YW. I also add the greater the difference the faster the motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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