Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah it's one of my biggest pet peeves. The worst is watching TV mets mention it. As a member of that group it really makes me sad and embarrassed. I had a colleague mention it to me at work today and I said looking at it I will never be able to reclaim those 10 seconds of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 outflow from Sandy to the north and west has improved markedly in the last hour! She's definitely reorganizing and possibly starting a re-strengthening run tonight. yeah, we'll see. Not sure about that. Recon was just in there at 110z and found a weakening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC shifted pretty far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Seems to be the southern outlier. Delaware Bay seems to be a good median to go with. Please I hope the 00z GFS GFS ensembles as well as the Euro push this monster into NYC or LI or SNE. I live at the Euros current ground zero....I am NOT looking forward to some sub 950 mb monster hybrid throwing 8 inches + of rain and 60+ mph wind around Delaware and the Philly metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC shift a good deal south: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5day?large#contents They like the GFDL / EURO combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Please I hope the 00z GFS GFS ensembles as well as the Euro push this monster into NYC or LI or SNE. I live at the Euros current ground zero....I am NOT looking forward to some sub 950 mb monster hybrid throwing 8 inches + of rain and 60+ mph wind around Delaware and the Philly metro.... So you'd rather have it destroy other people's homes and wish it on them...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC shifted pretty far south Looks a bit faster, too especially south of HAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NHC shifted pretty far south Looks like 00z consensus models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 well NHC seems confident to move it a relatively large amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 yeah, we'll see. Not sure about that. Recon was just in there at 110z and found a weakening storm. I think he is being fooled by the shear pattern making it look like outflow is improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 yeah, we'll see. Not sure about that. Recon was just in there at 110z and found a weakening storm. Based on satellite presentation in the last hour, I disagree with their insitu obs! I am interested to see what happens tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Besides extreme coastal flooding across coastal CT I could really see this not being that big of an issue here. Forecast soundings suggest it will be difficult to really mix those really strong winds down. We'll have some gusty winds and some flooding but nothing that is atypical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goeatweeds Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Obviously this question is coming from a casual weather person, but why are the storm tracks with this storm becoming so strongly agreeable this early? I've been through 10 years of storm watching since moving to New England and have seen ****loads of storms that were "sure things" go out to sea within 12-24 hours. This storm still has a ton of time until supposed landfall - what particular aspect of the systems in play is putting so much assurance on it flipping out and diving into the delmarva/nyc coast vs. new england coast? I understand the blocking keeping it coastal but what is in play that is going to literally pull it back and west? And why wouldn't it be any different than the trends that tend to lose hold on "sure thing" nor'easter, blizzard situations? Forgive the ignorance, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It has it' uses with mesoscale features like LES. Also low level cold air damming etc. The NAM can be useful at times in the winter and also for convection in the summer...however, it is almost completely useless when it comes to TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Besides extreme coastal flooding across coastal CT I could really see this not being that big of an issue here. Forecast soundings suggest it will be difficult to really mix those really strong winds down. We'll have some gusty winds and some flooding but nothing that is atypical. That is a bold statement this early in the game Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is a bold statement this early in the game Paul. At this point I think from coastal CT down through NJ and points south is where the real deal will be with extreme coastal flooding and very strong winds, however, further inland, especially across SNE I just don't see this being that big of a deal...unless the landfall ends up being closer to NYC or CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 regarding models and time frame i think we are at the point where the ensembles are getting less important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 recon just found 963mb so its starting to gain strength again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That is a bold statement this early in the game Paul. ya it might be , bc as will said, if we get more and more breaks in the clouds (in SNE) well NE (of say a S NJ/ DELMARVA) landfall. and 925 mb winds are model'd as high as they are, we will be gusting hurricane force in SNE, as the surface destabalizes at least that is how i understood it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On the IR loop, it looks like you can see very cold tops rotating around the center or a new eye feature trying to develop. recon just found 963mb so its starting to gain strength again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 On the IR loop, it looks like you can see very cold tops rotating around the center or a new eye feature trying to develop. Yeah, It shows up pretty well on a WV loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes the NAM is a closer pass and although 972 is deep, it's manageable - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah I think the bust posts are about as dumb as Kevin's storm of doom posts. At this point we just don't know the track. It's really up in the air with whether it's the Mid Atlantic or New England. It's also hard to figure out what strength the storm will be. Lots to figure out so we should probably reign in our declarative statements about no storm or huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah I think the bust posts are about as dumb as Kevin's storm of doom posts. At this point we just don't know the track. It's really up in the air with whether it's the Mid Atlantic or New England. It's also hard to figure out what strength the storm will be. Lots to figure out so we should probably reign in our declarative statements about no storm or huge storm. You are correct, And we are still a good 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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