ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I konw it really isn't close to the same situation, but would a good example of this be the remnants of Hurricane Ike blasting the OV with 60-90 MPH wind gusts. I specifically remember that day, and nothing more than 30 MPH gusts being forecasted, and then the entire OV having hurricane force gusts. It was a different setup....there similarity was that there was a very strong LLJ with the remnants of Ike...but the storm itself wasn't rapidly deepening or very strong. The winds were able to mix down very well in the Ike remnants because of high surface heating which destablized the low levels. The LLJ in this storm is going to be stronger than that setup, but the ability to mix it down will be tougher. So it will be a question of if the LLJ can overcome the relative stability at the surface. It might be a situation where if we can dryslot on the east side and even get a few breaks of sun, that would really allow the winds to go gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I am not Jerry lol, We are to young for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. Seems to be the southern outlier. Delaware Bay seems to be a good median to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It was a different setup....there similarity was that there was a very strong LLJ with the remnants of Ike...but the storm itself wasn't rapidly deepening or very strong. The winds were able to mix down very well in the Ike remnants because of high surface heating which destablized the low levels. The LLJ in this storm is going to be stronger than that setup, but the ability to mix it down will be tougher. So it will be a question of if the LLJ can overcome the relative stability at the surface. It might be a situation where if we can dryslot on the east side and even get a few breaks of sun, that would really allow the winds to go gangbusters. CLE did mention Ike in their AFD but I think more as a loose/general similarity to do with a transitioning tropical system. The setups are pretty different. There does seem to be a possibility of a significant strong wind event westward into the Lakes/OV but will be facing mixing questions like areas farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. Weaker 'cane faster yank west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weaker 'cane faster yank west? Yes Sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. jeezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. Well pack it up boys... The inferior tropical model is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 outflow from Sandy to the north and west has improved markedly in the last hour! She's definitely reorganizing and possibly starting a re-strengthening run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's hard to buy that sharp a westerly turn at that latitude. Just the forward momentum of such a large system, I think it bends nnw and then maybe nw, but more gradually. Now if it doesn't get as far east to begin with then that's another story. GFDL says miss. Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL says miss. Wagons south. All we need now is Messenger and the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Since we were infatuated by Sandy's loop near FLL on the NAM... it is super fast up here. Looks like it starts hooking back toward us monday morning. TS winds into SNE by 00z Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All we need now is Messenger and the RUC He's busy banging it, Tough to buy those hard left turns on some of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All we need now is Messenger and the RUC It'll have to be the RAP now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 TY. Then there was another similar storm in November 1968 too where the NEUS got waffled greatly. I think it was early November of that year. November 11-12, 1968. Perhaps the most intense wind/ blizzard conditions I've ever witnessed from my vantage point then, at a high elevation in the Monadnock region. It was the last of three storms within a week, the second of which dropped 10" of snow at my location. The 11-12 storm dropped about another foot, before dissipating to spitting drizzle and fog around noontime as the center passed close by. Quite the early welcome to the epic winter of 68/69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All we need now is Messenger and the RUC :-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 cyclonic loop just east of Central florida over hrs 18-36 ....i though this model was decent inside 36 hours, does it just blow in the tropics People were 5-posted just for mentioning the NAM in Isaac threads - I'm serious. If any aspect of the system is tropical at all, it is literally useless at all forecast hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Since we were infatuated by Sandy's loop near FLL on the NAM... it is super fast up here. Looks like it starts hooking back toward us monday morning. TS winds into SNE by 00z Monday? 976mb heading to LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'll take the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 People were 5-posted just for mentioning the NAM in Isaac threads - I'm serious. If any aspect of the system is tropical at all, it is literally useless at all forecast hours. Yeah it's one of my biggest pet peeves. The worst is watching TV mets mention it. As a member of that group it really makes me sad and embarrassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 People were 5-posted just for mentioning the NAM in Isaac threads - I'm serious. If any aspect of the system is tropical at all, it is literally useless at all forecast hours. They should just stop running it, Its useless in all aspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM can be useful at times in the winter and also for convection in the summer...however, it is almost completely useless when it comes to TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM can be useful at times in the winter and also for convection in the summer...however, it is almost completely useless when it comes to TCs. That's sad to hear I would have loved for that NAM solution to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Since we were infatuated by Sandy's loop near FLL on the NAM... it is super fast up here. Looks like it starts hooking back toward us monday morning. TS winds into SNE by 00z Monday? What the NAM shows aside, do you suspect that the models may underestimate the forward speed once this clears say HSE? Mostly interested about the timing as trying to fly to BDL on Sunday night, but also wonder if faster than expected acceleration might have a bearing on the track, with additional northerly momentum possibly taking some steam out of the sharp westerly hook.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The NAM can be useful at times in the winter and also for convection in the summer...however, it is almost completely useless when it comes to TCs. Yes...I LOVE the NAM. I hate when people trash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 LOL at the NAM. Like an elongated MSLP contour in a nor'easter. I do have concern for the srn trends...especially if the models shift overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well pack it up boys... The inferior tropical model is south. Along with the op euro... and half the ensemble members, and half the ugraded EnKf gfs members. Still a wide spread but gfdl isn't in the crazy uncle category yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 11pm 968 mb 90 mph (125 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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