Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nov 50 had an 80-85kt H85 LLJ over NY/New England while the mid/sfc lows moved through the Mid Atlantic. The 18z GFS has 75-80kt even down to H95 on the Cape at 108hr. I think it'll be difficult to mix down anything impressive where I am, but the coast and interior high terrain in SNE should be pretty gusty at times. I would agree with this. Also I think if a dry slot were to develop to the S thru SE of the low especially after landfall and it tracks W or better yet WNW u could see increased mixing/increased static stability to lower "heights" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You can only hope that blocking stays extreme, Stay safe when are you going into emergency mode? Sat prep all day at work, then hope for the best. Just kidding about the block. Tell ya this when Scooter posted that MJO amp what two weeks ago and I saw the AO tank man how I wished it was winter. You could almost see this coming. Even without Sandy being there this would be a cranking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Duplicate post from the NYC sub-forum..... Latest GFS EnKF Ellipses just released and mean LF point is shifted north from previous run: screams flooding in your neck of the woods? Agnes like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nothing is high confidence 4 -5 days out , other than a storm is coming Mr. Wayne. i was hoping from a response from a met but until then , ur post will do......not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of these folks still do not understand , oh well, you and Scotter explained it very well. That LLJ is insane and Scooter great point about the winds staying up as it fills west, long duration pounding. I do want to add one thing. I think the models are undergoing QPF in the Berks, we all remember Pete and Mitch's 2010 mega QPF on a retro grading storm, that straight east -6 SD 850 wind is going to crank upslope for them. Agreed. The rainfall bullseye is going to surprise some people, wherever it ends up. The wind damage and the rain damage could be miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We probably won't get a great handle on the exact wind potential until about 48 hours out. The models will often underdo the LLJ when you get a transitioning TC...this one is kind of on steroids of course with the warm seclusion and obscene jet energy. If the timing is correct on the phase and "tug" NW to WNW where it accelerates for about a 18 hour period...that is where you have to watch out for a 100 knot LLJ on the E side of this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like ORH gust to 65 knots but I also wouldn't be shocked to see them not break 40 knots...it will just depend on where the storm decides to turn left and the angle of attack at the point of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nov 50 had an 80-85kt H85 LLJ over NY/New England while the mid/sfc lows moved through the Mid Atlantic. The 18z GFS has 75-80kt even down to H95 on the Cape at 108hr. I think it'll be difficult to mix down anything impressive where I am, but the coast and interior high terrain in SNE should be pretty gusty at times. 110 in Concord holy heck, warm seclusion event too. The preceding atmospheric state was one of La Niña conditions, the cold phase of ENSO, which favors a storm track from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians.[3] The cyclone initially formed in southeast North Carolina near a cold front on the morning of November 24 as the main cyclone over the Great Lakes weakened. Rapid development ensued as the surface center began to migrate back into a closed 500 hPa (14.75 inHg)-level (around 6,000 m/20,000 ft above sea level) cyclone, and the cyclone bombed while moving north through Washington D.C. the next morning. The former occluded front to its northwest became a warm front which moved back to the west around the strengthening, and now dominant, southern low pressure center. By the evening of November 25, the cyclone retrograded, or moved northwestward, into Ohio due to a blocking ridge up across eastern Canada. It was at this time that the pressure gradient was its most intense across southern New England and eastern New York. The cyclone moved west over Lake Erie to the north of the upper cyclone before looping over Ohio as the low-level and mid-level cyclone centers coupled. Significant convection within its comma head led to the development of a warm seclusion, or a pocket of low level warm air, near its center which aided in further development due to the increased lapse rates a warmer low level environment affords under a cold low. After the system became stacked with height, the storm slowly spun down as it drifted north and northeast into eastern Canada over the succeeding few days.Sustained winds of 50-60 mph (80–100 km/h) with gusts to 83 miles per hour (134 km/h) were recorded at Albany, New York. A wind gust of 94 miles per hour (151 km/h) was recorded in New York City. Extensive damage was caused by the wind across New York, including massive tree fall and power outages.Coastal flooding breached dikes at LaGuardia Airport, flooding the runways. Flooding extended to New York City's Office of Emergency Management on the Lower East Side, in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Oddly, Henry Margusity was calling for Sandy to simply go out to sea in his blog this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol but he is right. right anywhow what i was getting at is how sketpical many offices were of the hard left turn (yesterday) , and even some mets, now with more model solutions showing it, i was asking a question as to wether people are as skeptical or buying it more. think outside the box, it doesn't have to be black and white. low confidence or high confidence, there is a spectrum and i'm trying to faciliate discussion on the matter with people who know their stuff. so basically i would like a pro mets answer, if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What if any are the chances of this spinning off tornadoes? Is that not an issue due to a wind field that is not really weakening much as it comes ashore so vertical shear is limited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What if any are the chances of this spinning off tornadoes? Is that not an issue due to a wind field that is not really weakening much as it comes ashore so vertical shear is limited? Quite low. Cooler SSTs will lower low level CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 110 in Concord holy heck, warm seculsion event too. The preceding atmospheric state was one of La Niña conditions, the cold phase of ENSO, which favors a storm track from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Appalachians.[3] The cyclone initially formed in southeast North Carolina near a cold front on the morning of November 24 as the main cyclone over the Great Lakes weakened. Rapid development ensued as the surface center began to migrate back into a closed 500 hPa (14.75 inHg)-level (around 6,000 m/20,000 ft above sea level) cyclone, and the cyclone bombed while moving north through Washington D.C. the next morning. The former occluded front to its northwest became a warm front which moved back to the west around the strengthening, and now dominant, southern low pressure center. By the evening of November 25, the cyclone retrograded, or moved northwestward, into Ohio due to a blocking ridge up across eastern Canada. It was at this time that the pressure gradient was its most intense across southern New England and eastern New York. The cyclone moved west over Lake Erie to the north of the upper cyclone before looping over Ohio as the low-level and mid-level cyclone centers coupled. Significant convection within its comma head led to the development of a warm seclusion, or a pocket of low level warm air, near its center which aided in further development due to the increased lapse rates a warmer low level environment affords under a cold low. After the system became stacked with height, the storm slowly spun down as it drifted north and northeast into eastern Canada over the succeeding few days.Sustained winds of 50-60 mph (80–100 km/h) with gusts to 83 miles per hour (134 km/h) were recorded at Albany, New York. A wind gust of 94 miles per hour (151 km/h) was recorded in New York City. Extensive damage was caused by the wind across New York, including massive tree fall and power outages.Coastal flooding breached dikes at LaGuardia Airport, flooding the runways. Flooding extended to New York City's Office of Emergency Management on the Lower East Side, in Manhattan. Steve is this the Vet's Day storm from the 1950s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 right anywhow what i was getting at is how sketpical many offices were of the hard left turn (yesterday) , and even some mets, now with more model solutions showing it, i was asking a question as to wether people are as skeptical or buying it more. think outside the box, it doesn't have to be black and white. low confidence or high confidence, there is a spectrum and i'm trying to faciliate discussion on the matter with people who know their stuff. so basically i would like a pro mets answer, if possible. I am not a pro met but slept with one once. I do not think any angle is set in stone but if you remember Feb 2010 that was a west mover, in fact maybe west SW. This looks similar, just a friggin Berlin Wall block. FYI that thread was great, talk about epic meltdowns LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve is this the Vet's Day storm from the 1950s? Great Appalachian snowstorm...11/25-26/1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The left hook scenario is comforting in terms of damage here because it really seems to limit the possibility of this tracking up the Ct Valley. With only modest elevation imby and hopefully having the drenching qpf well south of here I'm a lot less nervous about any major damage in NW Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve is this the Vet's Day storm from the 1950s? Dendrite mentioned it in a response to me about LLJ and potential. I remember reading about it years ago but revisited it tonight. Great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 made my first FB page on the storm to my friends/family, things are now serious and people should prepare no matter where you think it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great Appalachian snowstorm...11/25-26/1950 TY. Then there was another similar storm in November 1968 too where the NEUS got waffled greatly. I think it was early November of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Dendrite mentioned it in a response to me about LLJ and potential. I remember reading about it years ago but revisited it tonight. Great storm. Revisited it from an historical perspective or personal experience? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 right anywhow what i was getting at is how sketpical many offices were of the hard left turn (yesterday) , and even some mets, now with more model solutions showing it, i was asking a question as to wether people are as skeptical or buying it more. think outside the box, it doesn't have to be black and white. low confidence or high confidence, there is a spectrum and i'm trying to faciliate discussion on the matter with people who know their stuff. so basically i would like a pro mets answer, if possible. I'm still skeptical of that hard left turn, but I know you want to hear from a MET, a gradual turn is my thinking but that does not mean even a SW turn after it's made the turn W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 110 in Concord holy heck Really wish I was alive for that event.KCON 260400Z 09049KT 1SM RA CLR 08/07 A//// RMK SLP064 P0025 T00830072 KCON 260500Z 04050KT 11/2SM -RA CLR 09/08 A//// RMK SLP034 P0019 T00890078 KCON 260600Z 04054KT 2SM -RA FG 09/08 A//// RMK SLP020 P0009 T00890078 KCON 260700Z 09052KT 11/2SM RA FG CLR 11/09 A//// RMK SLP000 P0013 T01060094 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Last year when I asked about the possibility of tornadoes with Irene I was almost 5-posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol at the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 We probably won't get a great handle on the exact wind potential until about 48 hours out. The models will often underdo the LLJ when you get a transitioning TC...this one is kind of on steroids of course with the warm seclusion and obscene jet energy. If the timing is correct on the phase and "tug" NW to WNW where it accelerates for about a 18 hour period...that is where you have to watch out for a 100 knot LLJ on the E side of this. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like ORH gust to 65 knots but I also wouldn't be shocked to see them not break 40 knots...it will just depend on where the storm decides to turn left and the angle of attack at the point of landfall. I konw it really isn't close to the same situation, but would a good example of this be the remnants of Hurricane Ike blasting the OV with 60-90 MPH wind gusts. I specifically remember that day, and nothing more than 30 MPH gusts being forecasted, and then the entire OV having hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm still skeptical of that hard left turn, but I know you want to hear from a MET, a gradual turn is my thinking but that does not mean even a SW turn after it's made the turn W. that's my thinking unless i hear otherwise, i'm just gonna follow the euro/euro ens next few runs, GFS seems like it's just chasin the euro on a delay, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 lol at the nam cyclonic loop just east of Central florida over hrs 18-36 ....i though this model was decent inside 36 hours, does it just blow in the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 that's my thinking unless i hear otherwise, i'm just gonna follow the euro/euro ens next few runs, GFS seems like it's just chasin the euro on a delay, but who knows The GFS has adjusted, but the Euro can adjust north as well and they can meet in the middle...we have seen this with other storms. I don't think a LI landfall is out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I konw it really isn't close to the same situation, but would a good example of this be the remnants of Hurricane Ike blasting the OV with 60-90 MPH wind gusts. I specifically remember that day, and nothing more than 30 MPH gusts being forecasted, and then the entire OV having hurricane force gusts. But Ike passed to the north of the OV and thus you were south of the center. There was also more "sun" and greater mixing resulted thus the strong winds. Even here in Upstate NY the rems of the Storm tracked across the Adirondacks that following Monday morning and a brief 4-6 hour period of sustained 25-35 mph winds gusts to 50 mph resulted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 cyclonic loop just east of Central florida over hrs 18-36 ....i though this model was decent inside 36 hours, does it just blow in the tropics Yeah, That's why i made the comment, I think it just blows period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Revisited it from an historical perspective or personal experience? LOL I am not Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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