ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve, or anyone, what is 925mb usually at elevation wise? It normally like 2500 feet...but this time its about 1500, lol. Heights are so low with the sfc pressure getting down so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah like Will said..look at soundings, models are usually horrible with gust potential inland on those 10m wind progs. I don't think some people are giving wind enough credit here. Even a landfall near DE would have 50+ gust on the coast. Then, the potential becomes long duration as the storm heads more west and fills...keeping the gradient and LLJ overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 2600-2800ft or so. yeah...sorta forgot another Google. Mount tolland is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gun to my head... SNJ landfall. Someone better catch Kevin's tears and save them when he doesn't get his "hurricane force gusts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOS has 80 knots sustained at 925mb on the GFS...that is what you have to be looking at when thinking about gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieRI Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great radio show, good thing too as Scooter has a radio face, ha. Ian with the full moon shout out to me, LOL. Well as the weenies turn. I really liked Adam and Scott's reasoning for a ACY to Montauk hit, made perfect sense to me. After all is said and done Sandy versus ULL will decide actual landfall. Just looked at 925 maps , those folks busting Kevs balls might want to tone that back. I would not be surprised if the center, eye if you will, is broad and 30-50 miles across with the strongest winds north of that, meaning a center landfall in BML, like that Scooter? area puts NYC and LI Coastal Ct in the strongest wind swath. Such a big storm and what a gradient. Like Vortex stated in his post the 92 storm gradient produced gusts far away from the center in the 90s. This gyre has a deeper gradient and a broader circulation along with a tropical infusion. This storm is atypical, historical in path and not studied or analogous to any other in East Coast history. Maybe it's not as much a beast as we fear but it sure looks ominous for many. some here are writing this off because they see a circle crossing the NJ coast. I hope most are more sophisticated than that and follow and read what the community has to say about the future implications. Gonna be a busy weekend for Dave getting houses ready in Watch Hill - Ugh - I usually have to help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This storm will have some major potential to mix down very strong winds well away from the center. The GFS with it making landfall in NJ still had 90 knot winds at 900mb over interior SNE...even up by ORH. So it will definitely have the ability to produce huge gusts far from the center....it even had 63 knots sustained only like 1500 feet off the deck ont he sounding. That is pretty ridiculous stuff. However, we still just have no idea how this will evolve in a detailed sense yet where some of these details cna make all the difference in the world. In a way this reminds me of Dec 94 only much larger. 72 MPH gusts at my house 15 miles inland on a legit setup. I guess it's now a sit and wait for the nuances. Great discussions and lots of opinions. I am going to be watching those buoy ship reports closely, Irene's surge in LI started showing up at NLC first as the tide switched. The anticipated normal tide is somewhat lower than Irene but negligible, currents are very high. Antecedotal reports from some friends with boats on the Pawcatuck River said the tide was higher than they expected this AM, obviously unrelated but interesting none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It's almost like 2010 with blocking too strong. The euro is an option...even if it squeaks north to like ACY or something. Despite all the little nuances that happen before it turns left, the blocking keeps getting stronger as modeled. So something to consider. I've seen models too phase happy before, so I think that is also something to consider. It will also depend on how far NW it curves in the next 24 hours. The further west it gets, the less longitude it gets when it moves NE again...therefore a further SW solution when it finally curves back NW. The one thing that is standing out for me, is how strong the blocking is. I understand there is a weakness causing it to move NE, but that seems to be slowly going away with each model run...unless it decides to appear again. So in my mind, models are phase happy...but part of the reason why is because of the blocking. IMO I think the next two days are important as to how far offshore Sandy is before it moves NE. Ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 It would probably take wet soils and esp. the PRE scenario to bring extensive wind damage with 30-60kt winds. Noel proved that, there was some wind damage but it wasn't too bad (those were 60-90mph gusts, too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gonna be a busy weekend for Dave getting houses ready in Watch Hill - Ugh - I usually have to help! Get TB to help, yea I would love to be at the Lighthouse for this one. Screaming East winds will pile water up into the sound. Like Scooter said, the fetch is coming from friggin Sable Island NS. The wave height tables remind me very much of the perfect storm. All a matter of where this decides to head. I am hoping Wallops Island and will care less if I warned people to get ready. Power is good snow is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's just a general idea...Obviously room for error to shank it to the right Scott Norwood style. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ding ding ding Welcome to winter 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOS has 80 knots sustained at 925mb on the GFS...that is what you have to be looking at when thinking about gust potential. Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm really very interest'd in the angle of approach with this monster. ARE we really buying the Due west movement? is the position and orientation of the ULL key to the West fling. I mean could this thing be flung a bit more NW/or even NNW/ to NW ? or is W/WNW high confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's just a general idea...Obviously room for error to shank it to the left Baltimore Ravens style. That is just plain wrong , i hope you guys get partly cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 BOS has 80 knots sustained at 925mb on the GFS...that is what you have to be looking at when thinking about gust potential. Some of these folks still do not understand , oh well, you and Scotter explained it very well. That LLJ is insane and Scooter great point about the winds staying up as it fills west, long duration pounding. I do want to add one thing. I think the models are undergoing QPF in the Berks, we all remember Pete and Mitch's 2010 mega QPF on a retro grading storm, that straight east -6 SD 850 wind is going to crank upslope for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Matt Noyes on the wind potential http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/10/sandy-to-feature-huge-wind-field.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm really very interest'd in the angle of approach with this monster. ARE we really buying the Due west movement? is the position and orientation of the ULL key to the West fling. I mean could this thing be flung a bit more NW/or even NNW/ to NW ? or is W/WNW high confidence Nothing is high confidence 4 -5 days out , other than a storm is coming Mr. Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 sandy looks like she is gettin sheared to hell by the ULL near the keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of these folks still do not understand , oh well, you and Scotter explained it very well. That LLJ is insane and Scooter great point about the winds staying up as it fills west, long duration pounding. I do want to add one thing. I think the models are undergoing QPF in the Berks, we all remember Pete and Mitch's 2010 mega QPF on a retro grading storm, that straight east -6 SD 850 wind is going to crank upslope for them. Stay safe Mr. Ginx. Your posts tonight are very enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of these folks still do not understand , oh well, you and Scotter explained it very well. That LLJ is insane and Scooter great point about the winds staying up as it fills west, long duration pounding. I do want to add one thing. I think the models are undergoing QPF in the Berks, we all remember Pete and Mitch's 2010 mega QPF on a retro grading storm, that straight east -6 SD 850 wind is going to crank upslope for them. If I stand on my roof I am almost at 925 mb... Seriously, I have some concerns about mixing down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Welcome to winter 2013 You can only hope that blocking stays extreme, Stay safe when are you going into emergency mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This storm will have some major potential to mix down very strong winds well away from the center. The GFS with it making landfall in NJ still had 90 knot winds at 900mb over interior SNE...even up by ORH. So it will definitely have the ability to produce huge gusts far from the center....it even had 63 knots sustained only like 1500 feet off the deck ont he sounding. That is pretty ridiculous stuff. However, we still just have no idea how this will evolve in a detailed sense yet where some of these details cna make all the difference in the world. Beware of Browning's "Sting jet" in a warm seclusion coming from the tip of the comma head located to the S/SW of the low's center. Could see winds 80knots or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's actually realistic if it hits in central or northern NJ someplace. Recall Houston in 1983 after Alicia. So many windows blown right out of the high rises. Henry Margusity @Accu_Henry For NYC, if the storm goes on the GFS track, windows will be blown out of the top floors of buildings. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HM8 Michigan dude, this Buds for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some of these folks still do not understand , oh well, you and Scotter explained it very well. That LLJ is insane and Scooter great point about the winds staying up as it fills west, long duration pounding. I do want to add one thing. I think the models are undergoing QPF in the Berks, we all remember Pete and Mitch's 2010 mega QPF on a retro grading storm, that straight east -6 SD 850 wind is going to crank upslope for them. Nov 50 had an 80-85kt H85 LLJ over NY/New England while the mid/sfc lows moved through the Mid Atlantic. The 18z GFS has 75-80kt even down to H95 on the Cape at 108hr.I think it'll be difficult to mix down anything impressive where I am, but the coast and interior high terrain in SNE should be pretty gusty at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Stay safe Mr. Ginx. Your posts tonight are very enlightening. Yoo too Scooby Do. Thanks. Had my electrician here today for the Gennie, said all the suppliers were out today of connecting wires and supplies, massive East Coast rush going on behind the scenes. OT I know Will but had to throw it out there as most are reading this thread. Make your preps soon peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Duplicate post from the NYC sub-forum..... Latest GFS EnKF Ellipses just released and mean LF point is shifted north from previous run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve, or anyone, what is 925mb usually at elevation wise? Nevermond 2.5K Its quite a bit lower than that when the surface is at 940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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