OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 the GFS is so epic it has hurricane force gusts on Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Scott make sure if you're going to the conference you leave the coffee stained tie at home cause ill bet they'll be plenty of TV trucks there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 eh... that will make Irene look like nothing. And that was something Yes it was my friend, I am sure you remember the pics I took of that surge....and also the catastrophic flooding our friends to the north endured. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weren't some of the GFS members showing it come into Boston from the ENE? I think those were the 12z members and 18z shifted them all south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm telling you watch the 0z European shift landfall to the Outer Banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Scott make sure if you're going to the conference you leave the coffee stained tie at home cause ill bet they'll be plenty of TV trucks there Jet Blue is one of our clients, so I'm going for work reasons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm telling you watch the 0z European shift landfall to the Outer Banks LOL---I was just wondering what modeling diasters I might come down to in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes it was my friend, I am sure you remember the pics I took of that surge....and also the catastrophic flooding our friends to the north endured. It is what it is. Yeah, I was thinking of those pics and your reaction. I hope nothing like that occurs or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm telling you watch the 0z European shift landfall to the Outer Banks Did the 18z GFDL just almost do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Did the 18z GFDL just almost do that? congrats in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 DT is already backpatting from the euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 congrats in advance Ah yes, the obligatory post... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yes it was my friend, I am sure you remember the pics I took of that surge....and also the catastrophic flooding our friends to the north endured. It is what it is. how far from the beach are you, Joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 how far from the beach are you, Joe? I am .9 miles from the actual beach, but the tidal marsh is 200 yards or so from my house. Army Corps of Engineers actually has a series of locks here in just south of me in the wetlands, have only seen them walking, but this land is basically reclaimed tidal marsh as well as fresh water rivers underground, my neighbors sub pump across the street goes 24/7 365. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 TWCs Postel did a nice job showing GFS vs EC a few minutes ago Cantore seems spooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm going to remind people that this thread is not the banter thread for this threat....we have one designated for that: It makes our jobs a lot easier if we don't have to delete one word posts or off-topic posts...Id' prefer to talk about the meteorological aspects of this storm than spend time moderating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 how far from the beach are you, Joe? This is my buffer in back of my house, the tidal marsh has a wonderful way of eating surge up hopefully it holds in a worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 TWCs Postel did a nice job showing GFS vs EC a few minutes ago Cantore seems spooked Can you elaborate on what they said for those of us that didn't see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great radio show, good thing too as Scooter has a radio face, ha. Ian with the full moon shout out to me, LOL. Well as the weenies turn. I really liked Adam and Scott's reasoning for a ACY to Montauk hit, made perfect sense to me. After all is said and done Sandy versus ULL will decide actual landfall. Just looked at 925 maps , those folks busting Kevs balls might want to tone that back. I would not be surprised if the center, eye if you will, is broad and 30-50 miles across with the strongest winds north of that, meaning a center landfall in BML, like that Scooter? area puts NYC and LI Coastal Ct in the strongest wind swath. Such a big storm and what a gradient. Like Vortex stated in his post the 92 storm gradient produced gusts far away from the center in the 90s. This gyre has a deeper gradient and a broader circulation along with a tropical infusion. This storm is atypical, historical in path and not studied or analogous to any other in East Coast history. Maybe it's not as much a beast as we fear but it sure looks ominous for many. some here are writing this off because they see a circle crossing the NJ coast. I hope most are more sophisticated than that and follow and read what the community has to say about the future implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great radio show, good thing too as Scooter has a radio face, ha. Ian with the full moon shout out to me, LOL. Well as the weenies turn. I really liked Adam and Scott's reasoning for a ACY to Montauk hit, made perfect sense to me. After all is said and done Sandy versus ULL will decide actual landfall. Just looked at 925 maps , those folks busting Kevs balls might want to tone that back. I would not be surprised if the center, eye if you will, is broad and 30-50 miles across with the strongest winds north of that, meaning a center landfall in BML, like that Scooter? area puts NYC and LI Coastal Ct in the strongest wind swath. Such a big storm and what a gradient. Like Vortex stated in his post the 92 storm gradient produced gusts far away from the center in the 90s. This gyre has a deeper gradient and a broader circulation along with a tropical infusion. This storm is atypical, historical in path and not studied or analogous to any other in East Coast history. Maybe it's not as much a beast as we fear but it sure looks ominous for many. some here are writing this off because they see a circle crossing the NJ coast. I hope most are more sophisticated than that and follow and read what the community has to say about the future implications. Great post Steve, and on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is the quadrant with the strongest winds dependent on the forward direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Can you elaborate on what they said for those of us that didn't see it? They had the two models (SLP I think) overlaid starting with Sandy's current position then running through next week. Showed the divergence of the two (means I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 They had the two models (SLP I think) overlaid starting with Sandy's current position then running through next week. Showed the divergence of the two (means I think). Ah the current chart on their website show it going through NYC. It looks the same as the one Kev posted from Ryan's boss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve, or anyone, what is 925mb usually at elevation wise? Nevermond 2.5K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great radio show, good thing too as Scooter has a radio face, ha. Ian with the full moon shout out to me, LOL. Well as the weenies turn. I really liked Adam and Scott's reasoning for a ACY to Montauk hit, made perfect sense to me. After all is said and done Sandy versus ULL will decide actual landfall. Just looked at 925 maps , those folks busting Kevs balls might want to tone that back. I would not be surprised if the center, eye if you will, is broad and 30-50 miles across with the strongest winds north of that, meaning a center landfall in BML, like that Scooter? area puts NYC and LI Coastal Ct in the strongest wind swath. Such a big storm and what a gradient. Like Vortex stated in his post the 92 storm gradient produced gusts far away from the center in the 90s. This gyre has a deeper gradient and a broader circulation along with a tropical infusion. This storm is atypical, historical in path and not studied or analogous to any other in East Coast history. Maybe it's not as much a beast as we fear but it sure looks ominous for many. some here are writing this off because they see a circle crossing the NJ coast. I hope most are more sophisticated than that and follow and read what the community has to say about the future implications. That's just a general idea...Obviously room for error to shank it to the left Baltimore Ravens style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Great radio show, good thing too as Scooter has a radio face, ha. Ian with the full moon shout out to me, LOL. Well as the weenies turn. I really liked Adam and Scott's reasoning for a ACY to Montauk hit, made perfect sense to me. After all is said and done Sandy versus ULL will decide actual landfall. Just looked at 925 maps , those folks busting Kevs balls might want to tone that back. I would not be surprised if the center, eye if you will, is broad and 30-50 miles across with the strongest winds north of that, meaning a center landfall in BML, like that Scooter? area puts NYC and LI Coastal Ct in the strongest wind swath. Such a big storm and what a gradient. Like Vortex stated in his post the 92 storm gradient produced gusts far away from the center in the 90s. This gyre has a deeper gradient and a broader circulation along with a tropical infusion. This storm is atypical, historical in path and not studied or analogous to any other in East Coast history. Maybe it's not as much a beast as we fear but it sure looks ominous for many. some here are writing this off because they see a circle crossing the NJ coast. I hope most are more sophisticated than that and follow and read what the community has to say about the future implications. This storm will have some major potential to mix down very strong winds well away from the center. The GFS with it making landfall in NJ still had 90 knot winds at 900mb over interior SNE...even up by ORH. So it will definitely have the ability to produce huge gusts far from the center....it even had 63 knots sustained only like 1500 feet off the deck ont he sounding. That is pretty ridiculous stuff. However, we still just have no idea how this will evolve in a detailed sense yet where some of these details cna make all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Gun to my head. Delaware Bay landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve, or anyone, what is 925mb usually at elevation wise? 2600-2800ft or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That's just a general idea...Obviously room for error to shank it to the left Baltimore Ravens style. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Steve, or anyone, what is 925mb usually at elevation wise? ~800 meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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