moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I thought most was showing NJ. Where did this come from? I think the question is "when" did this come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope he's wrong..esp with all the ensemble support so far north..If he's right..then it is what it is.Nothing more to say really Most of the most recent model guidance is NYC/NJ... besides the UKIE and EURO. Thats not so far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think the question is "when" did this come from? last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kevin just drove into the CT river. just a gut feeling and some common sense. However there are obviously some unusually anomalous factors at play here so we'll see. It wouldn't shock me if it came in as far north as LI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Most of the most recent model guidance is NYC/NJ... besides the UKIE and EURO. Thats not so far north Hundreds of miles north of Maryland..hundreds.. Anyway..maybe you all can laugh at my expense tomorrow. Everyone likes to see me lose..and I usually do..so enjoy I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope he's wrong..esp with all the ensemble support so far north..If he's right..then it is what it is.Nothing more to say really consider my comments just another ensemble member, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 at this point, would be equally breathtaking to see the models windshield-wipe OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hundreds of miles north of Maryland..hundreds.. Anyway..maybe you all can laugh at my expense tomorrow. Everyone likes to see me lose..and I usually do..so enjoy I guess Don't pout. It's unattractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I hope he's wrong..esp with all the ensemble support so far north..If he's right..then it is what it is.Nothing more to say really It's almost like 2010 with blocking too strong. The euro is an option...even if it squeaks north to like ACY or something. Despite all the little nuances that happen before it turns left, the blocking keeps getting stronger as modeled. So something to consider. I've seen models too phase happy before, so I think that is also something to consider. It will also depend on how far NW it curves in the next 24 hours. The further west it gets, the less longitude it gets when it moves NE again...therefore a further SW solution when it finally curves back NW. The one thing that is standing out for me, is how strong the blocking is. I understand there is a weakness causing it to move NE, but that seems to be slowly going away with each model run...unless it decides to appear again. So in my mind, models are phase happy...but part of the reason why is because of the blocking. IMO I think the next two days are important as to how far offshore Sandy is before it moves NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I was kinda figuring on a NJ/Delmarva hit, but Coastal's comments on the radio show got me thinkin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If anyone dares to post HM's (the bad one) latest tweet, they will be subject to cruel and unusual punishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If we're throwing out track predictions, I think the NHC 5pm is right on target. Northern half of NJ coast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Whether its the delmarva or Jersey, its a concern for western long island sound, a tremendous amount of water being piled in with successive high tides and astro on top. Major coastal flooding scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How it hits (angle of attack) will be a big factor...if we have this thing going NNW into NNJ, that is a huge deal for a chunk of SNE...if it is already moving due W, then it will be a run of the mill strong Nor' Easter for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 If we're throwing out track predictions, I think the NHC 5pm is right on target. Northern half of NJ coast IMO NJ/DE coast in general seems like an okay guesstimate for now, right down the middle of overall guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hundreds of miles north of Maryland..hundreds.. Anyway..maybe you all can laugh at my expense tomorrow. Everyone likes to see me lose..and I usually do..so enjoy I guess When you lose, Kevin, most of your co-New Englanders do, too. Unless of course it has to do with pinging. Then it's just you and Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I think I'll take a 942 into the coast. Nothing like a 90 mb pressure differential between the H in Canada and the storm. Good day to fly a kite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 How it hits (angle of attack) will be a big factor...if we have this thing going NNW into NNJ, that is a huge deal for a chunk of SNE...if it is already moving due W, then it will be a run of the mill strong Nor' Easter for most of us. Any chance this comes a bit further north and then makes the extreme westward track, almost paralleling the SNE coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Any chance this comes a bit further north and then makes the extreme westward track, almost paralleling the SNE coast? Sure...but probably not a very good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I was kinda figuring on a NJ/Delmarva hit, but Coastal's comments on the radio show got me thinkin'... ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Whether its the delmarva or Jersey, its a concern for western long island sound, a tremendous amount of water being piled in with successive high tides and astro on top. Major coastal flooding scenario. eh... that will make Irene look like nothing. And that was something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Any chance this comes a bit further north and then makes the extreme westward track, almost paralleling the SNE coast? Weren't some of the GFS members showing it come into Boston from the ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ?? ou basically repeated it in the post right above mine, that the models might be phase happy.... Well done btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Henry Margusity @Accu_Henry For NYC, if the storm goes on the GFS track, windows will be blown out of the top floors of buildings. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mike, you going to the conference still? I figure NWS may have extra staffing and some may not be there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mike, you going to the conference still? I figure NWS may have extra staffing and some may not be there? Dr. Forbes has been moved up in the schedule.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ou basically repeated it in the post right above mine, that the models might be phase happy.... Well done btw Oh ok. Thanks man. Hopefully we have one with snow next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Dr. Forbes has been moved up in the schedule.... Mike is the east of 75 and north of 40N, Dr. Forbes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mike, you going to the conference still? I figure NWS may have extra staffing and some may not be there? as of right now i am still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Mike is the east of 75 and north of 40N, Dr. Forbes. And has better hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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