ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Call me crazy...but that doughnut shape makes me think Sandy is going annular. The implications that would have are basically (but not limited to) a stronger hurricane itself, one less prone to collapsing on itself and one that maintains its strength longer correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 "Annular" - check Alright, I just need "derecho" to get bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan....rs-more-likely/ Making CT proud, Ryan. Easy for the non weenie to follow..... Looking forward to seeing you doing live coverage of the cataclysmic damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 People are so used to sheared 45 kt storms that when they see a legitimate CDO they think it's annular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Great write up Ryan! Thanks! I thought I'd be bored out of my mind waiting for 00z GFS but now we get to watch RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 "Annular" - check Alright, I just need "derecho" to get bingo! We already had a post about the NAM's 84 hour position tonight. That's more like the free square though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 no they dont New IR and WV scans indicate possible dry air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 cuban radar http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I hope people in Cuba (who are very hurricane savvy) weren't expecting a 65 knot dud lol. I was surprised to see the recon fly right over Cuban air space.... I thought they normally went around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nice watching the RI, going to be too bad to see it Noel SNE in 5 days time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The implications that would have are basically (but not limited to) a stronger hurricane itself, one less prone to collapsing on itself and one that maintains its strength longer correct? Right. Annular type hurricanes have a mind of their own. Isabel comes to mind. Sandy may not be annular. I am not the right person to be making that call. But Sandy clearly does not have any long spiral bands with her doughnut like shape...she has a enormous cloud canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 cuban radar http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif Freakin' aye....I've been trying to get that site to load for me earlier....yours loaded fine....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SSTs support a cat 4 at least, or a 5? not weenie hyping, just for threshold purposes. Doesn't take long if we extrap on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I hope people in Cuba (who are very hurricane savvy) weren't expecting a 65 knot dud lol. I was surprised to see the recon fly right over Cuban air space.... I thought they normally went around. I was just thinking that looking at the IR/radar presentation, if you live on the southeast shoreline of Cuba, now might be the time to start getting a little concerned, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I hope people in Cuba (who are very hurricane savvy) weren't expecting a 65 knot dud lol. I was surprised to see the recon fly right over Cuban air space.... I thought they normally went around. They usually do but sometimes get permission to do so in advance; may also be that because of Guantanamo we have some airspace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can anyone explain this (great disco anyway) WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE...A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLNS FORECAST HURRICANE SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BECOMING POST-TROPICAL /REMAINING WARM-CORED/ AS IT LOOPS WEST TOWARDS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL JET /SOMEWHERE IN PROXIMITY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION/ PARENT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT LAKES RGN. BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/. IN ADDITION...THROUGH PERSONAL COMMUNICATION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PREMATURELY PHASE SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HRS /ESPECIALLY A TROPICAL SYSTEM PHASING INTO A TROUGH/. SO LONG AS HURRICANE SANDY MAINTAINS...THE LONGER IT MAY RESIST CROSS H5 HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 THICKNESSES...RESULTING IN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF A TRACK TO THE RIGHT /ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS QUICKER AVOIDING THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION/. BUT AS SEEN IN MODEL SOLNS...SANDY SLOWS WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD IT TRANSITION POST- TROPICAL...SANDY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO PHASE ACROSS H5 HEIGHTS WITH A SUBSEQUENT LEFT HOOK. ADDITIONAL COMMUNICATION HAS BROUGHT UP POINTS CONCERNING OVER- ZEALOUS CYCLONE DEEPENING BY MODEL SOLNS...AS WELL AS HANDLING STORM MERGERS POORLY. SHOULD A MERGER OCCUR...THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE SHOULD USURP THE WEAKER WAVE AND PREVAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 cuban radar http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif Thanks for sharing. You can tell it's the Cuban because it has a big cigar. Appears the center will pass just west of the peaks on the eastern side. If nothing else, I suspect that will help from both a strength standpoint and perhaps the topography will blunt any effort to jut east. And every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 cuban radar http://www.met.inf.c.../plnMAXw01a.gif seems like these Caribbean radars get overloaded during storms sometimes. made a copy of current loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for sharing. You can tell it's the Cuban because it has a big cigar. Appears the center will pass just west of the peaks on the eastern side. If nothing else, I suspect that will help from both a strength standpoint and perhaps the topography will blunt any effort to jut east. And every little bit helps. every storm i can remember that cross eastern cuba S to N goes a bit more NW as it trys to leave cuba (unless it's moving fast). like the coast trys to suck it in as it leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 that box disco i just linked would seem to argue against a Mid atlantic hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Comparing the CDO of Sandy to her entire cloud canopy is amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Comparing the CDO of Sandy to her entire cloud canopy is amazing... Outflow is beautiful aided by the STJ, gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really cool to see the RI but can't help but imagine this might help it go out to sea in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan shared your blog on FB but could not share it directly from your blog page. Great write up. You should do one for the less informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 seems like these Caribbean radars get overloaded during storms sometimes. made a copy of current loop Hey bobbutts, can you save that .gif and upload it on here as a file instead of as a hotlink, you may be slowing down the Cuban site itself with all the query's its getting on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hey bobbutts, can you save that .gif and paste it on here as a file instread of as a hotlink, you may be slowing down the Cuban site itself with all the query's its getting on here. It's saved and posted from his site...not hotlinked from the Cuban site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really cool to see the RI but can't help but imagine this might help it go out to sea in the future Curious as to why? Do you think it will be harder to capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan shared your blog on FB but could not share it directly from your blog page. Great write up. You should do one for the less informed. I will once the threat gets clearer. Right now we're in the weenie awe / weather dork phase. Once I can actually make reasonable specifics then I'll do both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 can someone explain why a stronger storm would go out to sea. Shouldnt this also enhance downstream ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's saved and posted from his site...not hotlinked from the Cuban site. Gotcha, I assumed (wrongly) that since it was not uploaded it was from the cuban site. Didn't want the FBI coming after us for all the cuban website hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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