dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's funny seeing many weenies jumping on the farthest sw bandwagon when most mets here are telling them all options are equally open, and in fact a LI or NYC is most likely..yet we even have posters from Michigan locking up a delmarva hit lol If this verifies S of Jersey please stay away from the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow... GEFS mean flings it NW to like just south of Montauk then it moves due west... south of Long Island... into central NJ. That is nuts. And probably a worst case surge scenario (short of a cat 3 or something). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No disrespect here to the met moderator who commented on my post..but its the Canadian model..look on the map at the left hand bottom corner of the map .. It says CMC..canadian... Hope for the best and prepare for the worst...ironically I told my wife last week ,well I guess we are lucky this year in New England by not getting a hurricane..then Sandy comes knocking..spoke to soon...My son Matt lives in Brooklyn New York..luckly he is in Connecticut working on a film there with Cuba Gooding Jr..as set dresser,so they will keep the crew safe in a hotel there..oh a big kudos to the NHC forecasters for their 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast! It only takes one hurricane to make life miserable. yeah, those are from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No disrespect here to the met moderator who commented on my post..but its the Canadian model..look on the map at the left hand bottom corner of the map .. It says CMC..canadian... Hope for the best and prepare for the worst...ironically I told my wife last week ,well I guess we are lucky this year in New England by not getting a hurricane..then Sandy comes knocking..spoke to soon...My son Matt lives in Brooklyn New York..luckly he is in Connecticut working on a film there with Cuba Gooding Jr..as set dresser,so they will keep the crew safe in a hotel there..oh a big kudos to the NHC forecasters for their 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast! It only takes one hurricane to make life miserable. it states it was initialized on 24oct.. today is the 25oct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 it states it was initialized on 24oct.. today is the 25oct.. Yeah i deletd his post. Be careful what you post in terms of images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think this needs to be bumped..Folks.,..please read and understand With some models now showing Sandy making landfall well to the south of New England, and possibily meaning less of an impact to New England, something keep in mind, esp for wind potential... The Dec 11-12 1992 event...one of the worst Nor'easters on record to impact NEUS/Mid Atlantic. The storm central pressure got to down 985 mb near the Delmarva and stalled. We had a 1035 mb high over Quebec and it was bad for wind BOS to DCA. Maps here: http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1211.php http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1212.php Now the ECMWF shows a similar depth high to the NE-NW. Its position is further N and it isn't as strongly nosed down close from the NE like in Dec 92, *but*, do some math here. What was the absolute pressure difference then?...50 mb. What is will be the absolute pressure difference coming up...being a bit conservative at 960 mb for Sandy, and the 1035 mb high the ECMWF shows...75 mb! The high to the N is not as pressing for the Sandy event, but a 25 mb greater difference I would think would make it at least as bad as Dec 92 for wind/storm surge in New England, given the track stays to the S of Long island. So a Delmarva landfall might not make much difference. Problem is impact is going to be high regardless so any minimizing statements (i.e. not the worst case scenario) might not be a good idea right now. You have to look at it from degrees of bad. Even if it is not the absolute worst case scenario for New England, the worst case scenario is so bad, that getting a little less than that is still really bad relatively speaking. So if only a million people are w/o power in in southern New England vs. 1.5 million...see what I mean? When that many people lose power, it is a disaster no matter what. The infamous Blizzard of 78 in New England had 70-73 mb difference between the high to the N and the storm center to the S of New England. Here is my summary of day 1 of the Dec 1992 event from my historical wx files. We got hit hard in SNE obviously as well. 12/11/1992 One of the fiercest "nor'easters" this century in was progress across the New York City area and the Mid Atlantic region. A 985 millibar low stalled over the Delmarva Peninsula. This combined with a 1035 millibar high pressure over Quebec set up an enormous easterly pressure gradient which resulted in winds exceeding hurricane force in many places and record high tides. Ambrose Light Station just southeast of New York City recorded sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 93 mph. Wildwood Crest, New Jersey reported gusts to 90 mph and New Holland, Pennsylvania measured 82 mph gusts. In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the high winds broke a church steeple which fell onto and closed the Ben Franklin Bridge to New Jersey. Some of the worst coastal flooding ever associated with a nor'easter occurred as tides were pushed 3 to 6 feet above normal, resulting in widespread damage and beach erosion. LaGuardia Airport was closed due to flooding. The East River flooded Manhattan's FDR Drive, stranding dozens of motorists. Flooding at a Con Edison station shut down New York City's entire subway system for more than 3 hours. Tremendous snowfalls occurred at inland locations as the storm was a very slow mover. Piney Dam, Maryland was buried under 42 inches of snow to set a new state snowfall record for a single storm. Ogletown, Pennsylvania measured 36 inches of snow and Mount Storm, West Virginia recorded 32 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 kevin you worry too much. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the wind fields on this are just sick. 65 knot winds all the way into the GOM on the euro at 925mb...hundreds of miles away from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 kevin you worry too much. lol I do admitedly,,but it bothers me when some weenie in Michigan who thinks they're getting snow and wind..tries to explain to us in NEw England what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GEFS are pretty much a disaster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the wind fields on this are just sick. 65 knot winds all the way into the GOM on the euro at 925mb...hundreds of miles away from the center Do you think even if something like the 12z OP Euro verified elevated areas in SNE (> 1000 ft) would still gust over 50 kts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you think even if something like the 12z OP Euro verified elevated areas (> 1000 ft) would still gust over 50 kts? i think it's possible, yeah. not necessarily widespread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GFS PWATs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro Ens and GEFS are almost dead nuts on with landfall..Euro ens just a smidge sw near or south of NYC..Pretty good agreement ...CMC Ens over SNE///That overall is remarkable agreement..tossing the op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro Ens and GEFS are almost dead nuts on with landfall..Euro ens just a smidge sw near NYC..Pretty good agreement ...CMC Ens over SNE///That overall is remarkable agreement..tossing the op runs The ero ensembles went over Phl...that's per Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Interesting radio show going on. CoastalWx just dialed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the tornado possibilities with this as it comes ashore? Should that be a concern to those in let's say Ct if it comes in W of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Interesting radio show going on. CoastalWx just dialed in. I just checked the Radio Prediction Model. Top five phrases in americanwx radio show 1. It's to early to tell 2. historic 3. devastating hit for someone 4. biggest threat is the surge 5. things can still change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My guess: Euro is sniffing out an even bigger block and landfall will be WELL SW of NYC...maybe as far SW as BWI or even ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Re: nor'easter analogs ... Bliz 1888, March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll stick withe blizzards and snowstorms up here. Let the mid Atlantic have this one. Not a fan of going another 7 days without power again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is there a real tornado potential out of this? I've hard occasional talks across different places about a tornado threat north of the low track but I don't know the validity of these statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for the radio show, folks. Very informative. Kevin--I hear that CLP is sending it's resources to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan's boss Brad Field @BradNBCCT "spaghetti plot" of computer models...1 outlier way west, 2 outliers off to sea (let's hope)...consensus, right at us!pic.twitter.com/wA5ylTJ0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Definitively would be concerned LL to ACY. No joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 litchfield libatons (ext sw ct) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Its the GGEM run. But yeah, he's correct in that we have to remember this is still 4 days out. We are going to see a lot of weenie-esque reactions to every 25 mile jog in this thing. gun to my head says ride the EC on this baby. I don't like it but I cannot deny it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Ryan's boss Brad Field @BradNBCCT "spaghetti plot" of computer models...1 outlier way west, 2 outliers off to sea (let's hope)...consensus, right at us!pic.twitter.com/wA5ylTJ0 I thought most was showing NJ. Where did this come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gun to my head says ride the EC on this baby. I don't like it but I cannot deny it at this point. Kevin just drove into the CT river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Kevin just drove into the CT river. I hope he's wrong..esp with all the ensemble support so far north..If he's right..then it is what it is.Nothing more to say really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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