Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think I'll take a 942 into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Beautiful for us. Wiw I have rooms available at my place if you want to be closer to the storm...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Us philly folks are gonna get raked per 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would be without a doubt one of the worst storm surges NYC has ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 these model runs are doing everything imaginable to spare BOS while taking out NYC - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have rooms available at my place if you want to be closer to the storm...?? Why when winds will be strong everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why when winds will be strong everywhere I think should rent out some rooms at Mt Tolland..u know as a safe storm haven for folks farther away from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Now how much will the flow Jam as winds try to push Up the the mountains. A small temperature inversion could save the day windwise for folks a couple miles inland, however it won't do anything to stop the storm surge , the fetch is incrdible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why when winds will be strong everywhere You are wrong. No one else agrees with you. Hurricane force winds will be confined to very close to the center. You will probably not see sustained hurricane force winds. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One has to wonder if the GFS is simply trending to the Euro solution....the due west movement is telling vs a NW curve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would be without a doubt one of the worst storm surges NYC has ever seen How bad are we talking? 10-15 feet? Irene was what, 3-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One has to wonder if the GFS is simply trending to the Euro solution....the due west movement is telling vs a NW curve... Who knows but at 4-5 days the average error is still usually in the hundreds of miles - 100-200 I think...so we're still likely to see considerable change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looking at the winds on the 18z GFS...that would be an epic disaster for LI sound. Some good winds too on the Cape...but the surge potential is lower for Buzzards Bay and Narragansett with a due W movement. The angle of attack is very important for the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schmiez Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pet peeve, but... To be a hurricane, winds must be sustained for 1-min >= 74 mph. So really, you cant have hurricane-strength gusts. You can have 74 mph gusts though. It's like a push-up. If you just hold yourself up elbows extended, its not the same strength as actually doing a push-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Let the north trend begin! I am back for the cold season...and I see a lot of people are drooling over an 18z GFS run... Anything can happen at this point. I would not be surprised if this thing under performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pet peeve, but... To be a hurricane, winds must be sustained for 1-min >= 74 mph. So really, you cant have hurricane-strength gusts. You can have 74 mph gusts though. It's like a push-up. If you just hold yourself up elbows extended, its not the same strength as actually doing a push-up. Great post. Hopefully Kevin will print this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looking at the winds on the 18z GFS...that would be an epic disaster for LI sound. Some good winds too on the Cape...but the surge potential is lower for Buzzards Bay and Narragansett with a due W movement. The angle of attack is very important for the surge. Yes it would be. LIS is so vulnerable to surge this is a big concern. I think the 18z GFS would be a 10 foot surge around parts of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have to say that there will be two to three more days of model runs before we really nail this as to track...We are forgetting that the wind field is enormous across the Northeast...it only takes a deviation of the track to make a big difference on impacts..Not sure if its nice or what ever you may call it that the GFS is caving into the Euro,but We still have the CMC and other GFDL models that point to a worst scenerio as well , call it what you want..but We will all see major wind,rain and a few spin up weak tornadoes as well from Sandy. Anything can happen here..Just an observation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have to say that there will be two to three more days of model runs before we really nail this as to track...We are forgetting that the wind field is enormous across the Northeast...it only takes a deviation of the track to make a big difference on impacts..Not sure if its nice or what ever you may call it that the GFS is caving into the Euro,but We still have the CMC and other GFDL models that point to a worst scenerio as well , call it what you want..but We will all see major wind,rain and a few spin up weak tornadoes as well from Sandy. Anything can happen here..Just an observation... I think this is an old map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The lowest "high" tide coming up is the Monday night one thankfully. Around midnight in Stamford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think this is an old map.... Its the GGEM run. But yeah, he's correct in that we have to remember this is still 4 days out. We are going to see a lot of weenie-esque reactions to every 25 mile jog in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Its the GGEM run. But yeah, he's correct in that we have to remember this is still 4 days out. We are going to see a lot of weenie-esque reactions to every 25 mile jog in this thing. But the date says the 24th...unless I am not reading it correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Its the GGEM run. But yeah, he's correct in that we have to remember this is still 4 days out. We are going to see a lot of weenie-esque reactions to every 25 mile jog in this thing. Yup. My gut feeling is the Euro is too far south and west because it is phasing a bit too much. But it's possible. I think there's a limit on how far south we can go because the consensus through hour 60 of a sizable easterly jog... east of HSE... is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pet peeve, but... To be a hurricane, winds must be sustained for 1-min >= 74 mph. So really, you cant have hurricane-strength gusts. You can have 74 mph gusts though. It's like a push-up. If you just hold yourself up elbows extended, its not the same strength as actually doing a push-up. I disagree. Referring to Hurricane STRENGTH gusts is not the same as calling the condition a Hurricane. Such a reference would only imply that the gusts are of Hurricane Strength.. Calling them 'Hurricane Gusts' would be incorrect, and you would be correct.. Calling them Hurricane-STRENGTH would be ok as a comparative technique; an analogy. That qualifier makes all the difference... Hurricane Strength gusts doesnt mean they have to be produced by a hurricane; only that the gusts be of >= 74mph. "Tropical storm force winds" doesnt necessarily mean they were created by a tropical storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What does 90kts at 925mb transfer to at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I disagree. Referring to Hurricane STRENGTH gusts is not the same as calling the condition a Hurricane. Such a reference would only imply that the gusts are of Hurricane Strength.. Calling them 'Hurricane Gusts' would be incorrect, and you would be correct.. Calling them Hurricane-STRENGTH would be ok as a comparative technique; an analogy. That qualifier makes all the difference... Hurricane Strength gusts doesnt mean they have to be produced by a hurricane; only that the gusts be of >= 74mph. "Tropical storm force winds" doesnt necessarily mean they were created by a tropical storm! We understand what people are saying when they reference "hurricane force gusts", but technically it's incorrect. By definition, hurricane means sustained winds >= 74mph...therefore if only the gusts reach that threshold it's not really "hurricane strength". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's funny seeing many weenies jumping on the farthest sw bandwagon when most mets here are telling them all options are equally open, and in fact a LI or NYC is most likely..yet we even have posters from Michigan locking up a delmarva hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's funny seeing many weenies jumping on the farthest sw bandwagon when most mets here are telling them all options are equally open, and in fact a LI or NYC is most likely..yet we even have posters from Michigan locking up a delmarva hit lol Show me the posts of mets saying all options are equally likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If you are able to read..and I think you are..they're all here for you to see No they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS mean is just wild. 965mb ensemble MEAN south of the Cape.... swinging northwest toward NYC. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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