Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 On the plus side, the storm isn't exactly stalling which is good, but on the bad side for hydro issues, you are going to have a 50-100nm wide band of ++RA that will soak areas as reorients itself as Sandy moves NNW then NW. yes, rain is my biggest concern at this point, wind not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Am I the only one who thinks that rainfall is a potential huge issue with this, and probably being even underestimated a bit? (Granted, I realize this is new england-centric and agree that you guys are not most under the gun from rain per se) flooded basements are not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 expect a repeat or a bit further south on the 18z...id guess central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hearing the 18z GFS is going Li-Ct route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS at hr84 just looks classic. It doesn't get better than that. Sandy is even stronger, getting loads of support from the optimal jet structure. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 expect a repeat or a bit further south on the 18z Why would you think a bit further south? The block seems to be a bit further east when compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This will show the absolute inundation of NYC scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just read Henry M is sticking to out to sea track. That man can't even win when he hypes conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the Catskills watershed reservoirs are lower probably than before Irene so that's a plus should heavy rain come to fruition. Second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yes, rain is my biggest concern at this point, wind not so much. But that is more for areas well SW of you. No hydro issues for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This will show the absolute inundation of NYC scenario It's turning left @ 90..heading torwards NYC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS will probably go into NYC or ctrl NJ. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This may be one of the strongest runs yet. Just perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why would you think a bit further south? The block seems to be a bit further east when compared to the 12z run looking at 500 vort 90-102 hours...they are fujiwara-ing and the 18z is closer to the upper level low on this run than 12z...hence the swing west should be further south...a step towards the euro in being closer to phasing early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With the blocking it simply can't miss. It's just a question of how it gets there. It really can't hit north of Long Island probably. looking at 500 vort 90-102 hours...they are fujiwara-ing and the 18z is closer to the upper level low on this run than 12z...hence the swing west should be further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's about even with AC latitude. Heading due west....impressive rain band west side.....wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like C NJ it is looking at 108 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 gfs is almost exactly the track i was thinking earlier that would not be good for NYC at all or southern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 All you can really say is wow on the 18z GFS. That would be a monstrous disaster for NYC from a coastal flooding perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With the blocking it simply can't miss. It's just a question of how it gets there. It really can't hit north of Long Island probably. Well you have to consider that we are still 100+ hrs for one, so cant rule out anything...further more, were still not sure exactly how the entity that is sandy, whatever she is by this point, will interact with the attempted phasing of the polar trough...you would think they wouldnt be as willing to phase initially as the euro depicts it, but here we have the 18z gfs now coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Somewhere in central Jersey @114 hrs. But it concedes to the 12z euros Idea of the block coming down faster and a more amped troff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 haha...oyh man this run is scary - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Honestly, I can't imagine a more perfect set up between the approaching trough and the jet streak structure and the structure of Sandy on this run of the 18z. You could see it coming from hr60. Just amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Gfs would be insane imby. Heavy fronto rain scooters talking about. But yet a pounding on that track from the windfield also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man just flooding rainfall to the west of the track... this sort of shows why New England may escape flooding rains. Its all west of the low. West Virginia mountains get lit up with a blizzardcane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the Catskills watershed reservoirs are lower probably than before Irene so that's a plus should heavy rain come to fruition. The flows are actually about 20% higher now Logan and levels are up about 10-15% higher than normal for this time of year. It does look like though that they may be drawing down the water level at the Schoharie Dam. Also checked out 3 hrly FFG for the area as of today most counties are in the 1-2 inch/3 hour period for flash flooding. Their rather low values are probably tied into the very heavy 2-4 inch area wide rainfall that we got last Friday. Also keep in mind this time of year the trees and vegetation "absorb" less/very little vs what they can do in August thus more of the rain this time of year goes into runoff vs. absorption. NERFC has advised of possible river flooding across SE NY up thru the Catskils (for early next week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 108hr has 90kt 925mb winds over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well you have to consider that we are still 100+ hrs for one, so cant rule out anything...further more, were still not sure exactly how the entity that is sandy, whatever she is by this point, will interact with the attempted phasing of the polar trough...you would think they wouldnt be as willing to phase initially as the euro depicts it, but here we have the 18z gfs now coming on board. While still anything IS possible still now I think confidence has to be high in the OTS track 100% no longer viable and a potential LF most likely from Western LI to the Delmarva as being high.. NJ coast looks to be the prime zone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Game on. W. Ma Home Depots are already sold out of generators. People were driving up to Greenfield to grab the last ones. D batteries going fast and I bought the last 15 x 20 heavy duty tarp! At least some folks taking it seriously even though I doubt this part of the state sees anything epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Total QPF on the 18z GFS.... this would be a great solution for New England with no real flooding thread from rainfall. Coastal flooding is still huge, but if all of New England is a general 0.75-2.0" of rain, that's not even worth issuing flood watches. Meanwhile, mid-Atlantic better get the Ark ready...and West Virginia's NW upslope areas better get the snow shovels ready, or excavators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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