Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wouldnt this suggest the reason why NHC moved south with their 5 pm track a lil bit? = Possibly. Those are just the experimental EnKF ensembles, so they probably only had a small factor. Tropical Storm specific models will become useless soon once the baroclinic energy becomes involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The term, "Frankenstorm" has been bandied about the office today - is the source for this really Cisco ? EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION`S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY`S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND UNSETTLED. FINAL... UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It seems some haven't been reading. Massive expanding wind field warm core seclusion pressure gradient means cane winds hundreds of miles from LF seems many are just grasping at straws now that it seems that the mid-atlantic will clearly bear the brunt of this storm. This will not even be a hurricane when it reaches this latitude so how is it possibly going to expand to have a wind field with hurricane strength winds for hundreds of miles. Come on be realistic here. This thing has been trending south for 48 hours now and that is why many cautioned us not to use phrases like Perfect Storm II...we will experience moderate noreaster conditions along the coast in New England...with winds 30-40 maybe gusting to 50...nothing we don't see a few times a winter let alone "once in a lifetime" Away from the coast in New England will be even more benign with winds 15-30 gusting to maybe 40...and 1-2 inches of rain...just a run-of-the-mill fall storm for up here...Too bad ...it was close to being there for us but just not in the cards this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah the further south it strikes though, the less the wind threat although coastal flooding would still be massive. At least at this point a lot of the model QPF values aren't even close to Irene in central/northern New England. Not sure how it compares further south. The bulk of the heaviest rain appears to be heading for the mid-Atlantic on the western side of the storm. I think CT_Blizz will lose it if this tracks into southern NJ, leaving New England with a "meh" 1-2" of rainfall and gusts of advisory level, maybe barely reaching high wind warning criteria. They are not even remotely close here either with this storm as opposed to Irene. Possible 5" or so totals for Catskills and maybe east slopes of Berkshires, especially if storm LF's near NYC. SSE-SE flow will be big these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hopefully you are 5 posted I don't know man - I was hopeful too, but even now I am concerned that what once looked like a disastrous hit up here will now be nothing too serious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Could be pretty scary for folks along Long Island sound...with storm surge/coastal flooding. Same folks who were slammed hard with Irene could get it all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I do not see Irene-type rainfall amounts for western NE at this point. Doesn't mean there won't be some heavy rain totals...esp if we get some orographic enhancement...but 8-10 inch amounts like in Irene are not looking very likely around here. The best chance for that will be near the front which would be well west of us in NY State and PA. That's good... already getting a lot of folks asking questions who seem very concerned about the rainfall in this area and up at the ski resort, because Irene is fresh in everyone's mind. I feel pretty comfortable in that there may be some spot amounts that get high, but right now is looking like widespread basin averages should stay to 4" or less... not 6-12" like Irene. Now out in PA/NJ/MD/VA they could get some heavy, heavy rainfall west of the track where it comes ashore and where that strong frontogenesis band sets up to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 seems many are just grasping at straws now that it seems that the mid-atlantic will clearly bear the brunt of this storm. This will not even be a hurricane when it reaches this latitude so how is it possibly going to expand to have a wind field with hurricane strength winds for hundreds of miles. Come on be realistic here. This thing has been trending south for 48 hours now and that is why many cautioned us not to use phrases like Perfect Storm II...we will experience moderate noreaster conditions along the coast in New England...with winds 30-40 maybe gusting to 50...nothing we don't see a few times a winter let alone "once in a lifetime" Away from the coast in New England will be even more benign with winds 15-30 gusting to maybe 40...and 1-2 inches of rain...just a run-of-the-mill fall storm for up here...Too bad ...it was close to being there for us but just not in the cards this time. Hopefully you are 5 posted Both of you are trolling lol. I don't think anyone's grasping at straws and I don't think anyone expects hurricane force winds hundreds of miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's good... already getting a lot of folks asking questions who seem very concerned about the rainfall in this area and up at the ski resort, because Irene is fresh in everyone's mind. I feel pretty comfortable in that there may be some spot amounts that get high, but right now is looking like widespread basin averages should stay to 4" or less... not 6-12" like Irene. Now out in PA/NJ/MD/VA they could get some heavy, heavy rainfall west of the track where it comes ashore and where that strong frontogenesis band sets up to the west. Yeah, at least right now, I don't see record hydro issues in New England based on the current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The rain on the frontogenic side of this storm...basically SW wide of the storm, will get pounded with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Both of you are trolling lol. I don't think anyone's grasping at straws and I don't think anyone expects hurricane force winds hundreds of miles inland. lol... smack down. I'm pretty sure I know one poster who fully expects hours and hours of hurricane force winds decimating the forest on a small hill top to your northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Both of you are trolling lol. I don't think anyone's grasping at straws and I don't think anyone expects hurricane force winds hundreds of miles inland. Yeah I don't think that's likely here either unless we saw a change in the track. TS storm force gusts are certainly a distinct possibility and if the duration is similar to that of Irene that would still do some damage. I could see coastal CT gusting upwards of 50-60 knots possibly at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Destructive winds are far more of a concern for us than massive flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol... smack down. I'm pretty sure I know one poster who fully expects hours and hours of hurricane force winds decimating the forest on a small hill top to your northeast. Really? Who is that?............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I fully expect 65-80 mph gusts inland well into CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Destructive winds are far more of a concern for us than massive flooding Coastal flooding is my biggest worry actually. Nor'easters with gale force winds are a dime a dozen. It will be hard to get a truly special wind storm to inland areas but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Coastal flooding is my biggest worry actually. Nor'easters with gale force winds are a dime a dozen. It will be hard to get a truly special wind storm to inland areas but it's possible. Run of the mill here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I do not see Irene-type rainfall amounts for western NE at this point. Doesn't mean there won't be some heavy rain totals...esp if we get some orographic enhancement...but 8-10 inch amounts like in Irene are not looking very likely around here. The best chance for that will be near the front which would be well west of us in NY State and PA. I posted that frontogenesis map from the NAM earlier. Where banding is enhanced on the west and southwest side of the low is where I expect 6-10" amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I fully expect 65-80 mph gusts inland well into CNE What's "well into CNE"? BAF/FIT/CON ASOS gusting up to 80mph? I want to bump this later, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Coastal flooding is my biggest worry actually. Nor'easters with gale force winds are a dime a dozen. It will be hard to get a truly special wind storm to inland areas but it's possible. agree on coastal flooding. I see no reason why most or even all of Sne doesn't see gusts to at least cane strength that I outlined in my post that was deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nevermind - I am holding out hope we get pounded... Is it possible the models have over-adjusted too far south and could correct back north as we get closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I fully expect 65-80 mph gusts inland well into CNE Really? That would be something, especially if it stays well south of CNE as projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Somewhere between the GFS and euro seems to be the most likely landfall but I certainly wouldn't yet rule out farther to the north. The storm is still not in the time range when the models are at their best. The strong block puts more constraints on cone of uncertainty but we're still a couple of days away from being able to get down to specifics for who will be impacted most. Excellent post Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 agree on coastal flooding. I see no reason why most or even all of Sne doesn't see gusts to at least cane strength that I outlined in my post that was deleted Good luck on that Kev...the hurricane force winds will be very confined to the inner core region of the seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's way too early to even be pinning down exact wind gusts or what to even expect in terms of wind. Those details are so highly depend on storm track/landfall/interaction with the trough/pressure gradients/etc. The flooding situation, especially the coastal flooding should be getting more of the talk right now as this could affect hundreds/thousands of people that live along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From a wx perspective I can understand why people get excited by high winds an even storm surge. But heavy flooding rains are just blahh. After last year's devastation around here I wouldn't wish for that aspect of it. Yeah I do not see Irene-type rainfall amounts for western NE at this point. Doesn't mean there won't be some heavy rain totals...esp if we get some orographic enhancement...but 8-10 inch amounts like in Irene are not looking very likely around here. The best chance for that will be near the front which would be well west of us in NY State and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like 18z GFS through 72 hrs wants to hold the line with its earlier runs... not going to give in to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 On the plus side, the storm isn't exactly stalling which is good, but on the bad side for hydro issues, you are going to have a 50-100nm wide band of ++RA that will soak areas as reorients itself as Sandy moves NNW then NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 From a wx perspective I can understand why people get excited by high winds an even storm surge. But heavy flooding rains are just blahh. After last year's devastation around here I wouldn't wish for that aspect of it. Second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Am I the only one who thinks that rainfall is a potential huge issue with this, and probably being even underestimated a bit? (Granted, I realize this is new england-centric and agree that you guys are not most under the gun from rain per se) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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