Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NJ landfall south of BLM on NHC. 2 oclock? or new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 2 oclock? or new New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's old I think. Yeah, grabbed the wrong one on my desktop. Too many images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The worst track for highest impact overall in the Northeast would probably be something into C/N NJ...you'd probably get an inner core still at least partially intact to flood NYC from the S and then the outer windfield which should be very strong will hammer Narragansett and LI sound. Worst case for just SNE would probably be an accelerating storm over W LI before it does its pinwheel act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NAM 800-600mb frontogenesis as #Sandy approaches landfall ... becoming more hybrid. Amplify heavy rain E VA to S NJ Nice graphic and pretty much what you expect there there is interaction between a trough and a hurricane. The heaviest rainfall usually shifts to the area of strong frontogenetic lift. Cool stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NJ landfall south of BLM on NHC. They tossed the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 They tossed the GFS? I just don't see such a violent hookback to the left like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I just don't see such a violent hookback to the left like the GFS. CMC Ensembles show Cape hit - is a violent hookback taking place there as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CMC Ensembles show Cape hit - is a violent hookback taking place there as well? Not until the very end when it gets over us. See the NHC track? That looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Radio show........lol = a guarantee that the storm will bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I just don't see such a violent hookback to the left like the GFS. Not to mention that after that hook the 12z GFS shows the storm just sitting in place for about 24hrs. Attached is 12z 129hr fcst, It's over LI and then at 150hrs it's still over CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 They tossed the GFS? That would be a GFS-Euro middle ground, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 = a guarantee that the storm will bust lol, We all know what usually happens........KOD........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the 12z and 00z euro have 45-50 kt sustained north winds on Ontario and Erie as the low retrogrades...nuts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Local met on TV is saying max wind of 40MPH if it make LF in CNJ. Would that be true for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The worst track for highest impact overall in the Northeast would probably be something into C/N NJ...you'd probably get an inner core still at least partially intact to flood NYC from the S and then the outer windfield which should be very strong will hammer Narragansett and LI sound. Worst case for just SNE would probably be an accelerating storm over W LI before it does its pinwheel act. Tough go ahead for many though south of NE in that case. That would leave the remainder of New England--or at least the southern areas--to deal with some rain? Kevin will be so relieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That would be a GFS-Euro middle ground, really. Somewhere between the GFS and euro seems to be the most likely landfall but I certainly wouldn't yet rule out farther to the north. The storm is still not in the time range when the models are at their best. The strong block puts more constraints on cone of uncertainty but we're still a couple of days away from being able to get down to specifics for who will be impacted most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Local met on TV is saying max wind of 40MPH if it make LF in CNJ. Would that be true for SNE? I think it would depend somewhat on the forward speed and the angle of attack too...if it is moving like due W when it hits NJ, we won't see very impressive winds across most of SNE...but if it is accelerating NNW, then I think the winds would be more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tornado threat ala Beulah? I doubt it...usually later in season the 'cane or tropical makes landfall the lower the CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Somewhere between the GFS and euro seems to be the most likely landfall but I certainly wouldn't yet rule out farther to the north. The storm is still not in the time range when the models are at their best. The strong block puts more constraints on cone of uncertainty but we're still a couple of days away from being able to get down to specifics for who will be impacted most. The only reason I think the east/north solutions are coming off the table is the Euro was the frontrunner of sorts with the overall idea that seems to be panning out, and it's the furthest south of the bunch at this stage. The storm hound in me would love to believe otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it would depend somewhat on the forward speed and the angle of attack too...if it is moving like due W when it hits NJ, we won't see very impressive winds across most of SNE...but if it is accelerating NNW, then I think the winds would be more impressive. Yeah the further south it strikes though, the less the wind threat although coastal flooding would still be massive. At least at this point a lot of the model QPF values aren't even close to Irene in central/northern New England. Not sure how it compares further south. The bulk of the heaviest rain appears to be heading for the mid-Atlantic on the western side of the storm. I think CT_Blizz will lose it if this tracks into southern NJ, leaving New England with a "meh" 1-2" of rainfall and gusts of advisory level, maybe barely reaching high wind warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I doubt it...usually later in season the 'cane or tropical makes landfall the lower the CAPE. I was looking exclusively at the push to the WSW that was being hinted at. Reminded me of the south turn by Beulah which caused a lot of twisters, if my memory serves me correctly: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1967/BEULAH/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The only reason I think the east/north solutions are coming off the table is the Euro was the frontrunner of sorts with the overall idea that seems to be panning out, and it's the furthest south of the bunch at this stage. The storm hound in me would love to believe otherwise. I think the euro to nyc cone is by far the most likely. I personally do not want the euro solution as I'd be screwed where I live. The derecho in June knocked my power out for 7 days. I'm too old to root for another outage. Tomorrrow I am going to fill my gas tanks for the generator and probably will also get propane so I have some to cook stuff on the grill. My guess for a solution is near the euro ens mean but wouldn't be surprised if the operational was right since it has been the big leader and has kept shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What type of winds and surge are we talking about in areas of highest impact?. Are far as winds obviously the normal wind/pressure relationship in TC's is not going to apply but it will have a tighter wind field that a 960 ET low i the plains. Surge will be location and angle of approach specific for sure. Anything moving NW into NJ is going to cause problems for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wouldnt this suggest the reason why NHC moved south with their 5 pm track a lil bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah the further south it strikes though, the less the wind threat although coastal flooding would still be massive. At least at this point a lot of the model QPF values aren't even close to Irene in central/northern New England. Not sure how it compares further south. The bulk of the heaviest rain appears to be heading for the mid-Atlantic on the western side of the storm. I think CT_Blizz will lose it if this tracks into southern NJ, leaving New England with a "meh" 1-2" of rainfall and gusts of advisory level, maybe barely reaching high wind warning criteria. Yeah I do not see Irene-type rainfall amounts for western NE at this point. Doesn't mean there won't be some heavy rain totals...esp if we get some orographic enhancement...but 8-10 inch amounts like in Irene are not looking very likely around here. The best chance for that will be near the front which would be well west of us in NY State and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Local met on TV is saying max wind of 40MPH if it make LF in CNJ. Would that be true for SNE? Sounds fair. I'd probably start with 30-40G55 inland areas and 40-50G65 coast if the storm were to hit NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I do not see Irene-type rainfall amounts for western NE at this point. Doesn't mean there won't be some heavy rain totals...esp if we get some orographic enhancement...but 8-10 inch amounts like in Irene are not looking very likely around here. The best chance for that will be near the front which would be well west of us in NY State and PA. Yeah I agree. Someone will get clobbered with rain west of the track but I doubt it will be in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh, yeah. You aren't kidding. This could be like a prolonged Irene, except with much stronger winds to boot. If Sandy comes in south of us, the enhancement on the east slopes will be tremendous with that type of easterly low-level jet and tropical moisture getting wrapped in. Picture a quasi-stationary firehose from the E and SE with unrelenting torrential rains and gusty winds. Worst case scenarios would be 10"+ of rain for MPM and MRG's area. Will Route 2 get washed out again? The potential is also there for downsloping to increase wind speeds on the west facing slopes of these mountain ranges as well. Also shadowing across the Hudson and Ct River valleys less rain these spots. Euro also was farther SW and stronger with the block by NewFoundland. CNJ Here are the GFDL ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.