SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wonder what's the furthest south it can make landfall, Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Miss Mts winter work. I agree with Will, Sandy is going to be East of a Euro check point. I understand the block is super strong, but have a hard time seeing a system go WSW like that. Early guess is near BLM to GON give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 be careful what you hope for, just sayin.. I currently rent an apartment...on the second floor - no worries on my end. The place we are purchasing in SNH should be OK through this... That said, I want the worst possible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Your thoughts on S RI? Depends on final track of course, Euro would be meh, typical with surge overwash, GFS would be worst case. I suspect the CNJ NYC is final, approach angle would cause huge surge from Narry Bay to LI SOUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I currently rent an apartment...on the second floor - no worries on my end. The place we are purchasing in SNH should be OK through this... That said, I want the worst possible scenario. Reasonable, that would be my position if I had no personal stake, been there before LOL. Enjoy should be a great rodeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I understand the block is super strong, but have a hard time seeing a system go WSW like that. Early guess is near BLM to GON give or take. I had to look up BLM, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro ensembles? CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I had to look up BLM, LOL Belmar, NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Belmar, NJ? Monmouth, which then I had to look up...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMASShole1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We are still 100+ hours out or so from any potential landfall. Alot can and usually does with these systems. I'm not buying the drastic pull into lower Jersey. A gradual turn is more likely. I think the ridge would have to give a little and let the storm go further north before whipping west into LI/SNE. The Euro has been great at long range set-ups but recent history points more towards the GFS as we get closer to landfall. GFS shows the LI/NYC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I was actually reading Bastardi's twitter feed. An interesting idea came up. What if this storm has some effects on election day (November 6th)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BTW, I was joking earlier to get kevin nervous. EC ensembles very close to 00z..maybe a hair south. Remember about 2 weeks ago when we were jokingly saying, "cant we get a nice blizzicane out of the Carribean disturbance to spice this boring weather up a bit?"... look what we done did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NAM 800-600mb frontogenesis as #Sandy approaches landfall ... becoming more hybrid. Amplify heavy rain E VA to S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We are still 100+ hours out or so from any potential landfall. Alot can and usually does with these systems. I'm not buying the drastic pull into lower Jersey. A gradual turn is more likely. I think the ridge would have to give a little and let the storm go further north before whipping west into LI/SNE. The Euro has been great at long range set-ups but recent history points more towards the GFS as we get closer to landfall. GFS shows the LI/NYC landfall. I was just thinking the same thing - yes the GFS was late to the party but maybe it's track in the end is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CNJ Thanks, Sent you a PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Belmar, NJ? Monmouth, which then I had to look up...lol 20 mins from where I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With any storm threatening up the coast I would rather have the storm be further West and South on the modeling at this stage in the game. Granted this scenario is probably unlike any other, so the evolution may play out differently. But it seems as though ever tropical/tropical based storm always tend to perform more East once they get up to these parts. Plus a general rule of thumb is being in the cross hairs now most likely means you won't be when it comes to game time... Positive spin of a true weenie, I'll admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SREFs are pretty far east of 09z FWIW (which is probably not much) The initial motion of Sandy needs to start turning NW to get these closer solutions more likely. The 12z Euro has it doing a mini left hook at 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remember about 2 weeks ago when we were jokingly saying, "cant we get a nice blizzicane out of the Carribean disturbance to spice this boring weather up a bit?"... look what we done did. Ha, amazing what two weeks can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GFS puts me right in the NE Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 20 mins from where I live Would be a big hit for our home town.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I was actually reading Bastardi's twitter feed. An interesting idea came up. What if this storm has some effects on election day (November 6th)? Well, I could imagine power outages in certain areas lasting a week. That would be fun with all the back and forth. Get the lawyers ready!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CMC ensembles mean so that makes the third ensemble mean which shows a NJ landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hmmm, DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NJ landfall south of BLM on NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ha, amazing what two weeks can do. I can not in my lifetime remember a long period of boring weather not ending with a bang. Just the way it is and that my friends is not pure textbook science but we have been saying this for weeks. Us old guys know a little ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 CMC ensembles mean That's old I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Canadian ensembles hits Cape then SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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