hurricaneman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well most of the Euro operational runs have been on the SW side of the ensemble envelope which is why when in doubt go with the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro also was farther SW and stronger with the block by NewFoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Since when is DE shaped like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh man...just saw 120 HR on ewall...can't believe how far west the Euro is cutting that...that's pretty insane and I would think that is overdone...when people said west I didn't think that far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Big snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro also was farther SW and stronger with the block by NewFoundland. ECMWF has been very consistent with major features that go into influencing the phasing. If anything, this run continues the trend of slowing down the Pacific process, amplifying the downstream ridge over the western US and giving more amplitude to the s/w that digs into the East. This trend is supported by the positive frictional torque over 50-60N and -dAAM/dT that propagated to this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy will remain warm core through landfall... even if it's near Boston. Every model shows a deeply warm core system... without even hints of that warm core structure weakening. I agree. The early capture on the Euro is more hybrid like. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well lets think this through....why is it phasing it quicker? Less interaction between ATL system and the storm? On the flip side, is it strengthening Sandy slower? A stronger Sandy would probably delay phasing a bit. Good let it stay well SW. Euro Ens will be interesting in a few hours. GFS came left, Euro went left. I was wrong the goalposts are still separated...but they're shifting left for sure. Good for less damage up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Good let it stay well SW. Euro Ens will be interesting in a few hours. GFS came left, Euro went left. I was wrong the goalposts are still separated...but they're shifting left for sure. Good for less damage up here. We'll be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Question: When looking at 850 mb winds, what percentage of the forecasted 850 mb wind speed can we realistically extrapolate down to the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BTW, I was joking earlier to get kevin nervous. EC ensembles very close to 00z..maybe a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Question: When looking at 850 mb winds, what percentage of the forecasted 850 mb wind speed can we realistically extrapolate down to the surface? I think it depends hugely on the environment and storm structure. I don't think there's a good hard and fast rule to apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HPC A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BTW, I was joking earlier to get kevin nervous. EC ensembles very close to 00z..maybe a hair south. remind me where 00z was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As far as H5 goes, the ridge south of Greenland trended stronger, but ridge out west a little flatter thanks to Aleutian ridging. So net-net...little difference. However, these nuances are critical to where Sandy goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BTW, I was joking earlier to get kevin nervous. EC ensembles very close to 00z..maybe a hair south. Is landfall on LI, or NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As far as H5 goes, the ridge south of Greenland trended stronger, but ridge out west a little flatter thanks to Aleutian ridging. So net-net...little difference. However, these nuances are critical to where Sandy goes. So euro mean ens is where? LOL at your work FB pic geeking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it depends hugely on the environment and storm structure. I don't think there's a good hard and fast rule to apply. Reason I ask is I was looking at both the ECMWF and GFS. Two very different model solutions, but both give SNE 48+ hours of 850 mb wind speeds of over 50 kts. Based on this, would it be a stretch to say that we are potentially in for 2 days of at least Tropical Storm force wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is landfall on LI, or NJ? Central NJ or so..give or take 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As far as H5 goes, the ridge south of Greenland trended stronger, but ridge out west a little flatter thanks to Aleutian ridging. So net-net...little difference. However, these nuances are critical to where Sandy goes. I am hoping the ensembles show NYC or north - isn't that where they have been? Could it be the Euro is too far south and GFS to far north and NYC is the middle point between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SREFs are pretty far east of 09z FWIW (which is probably not much) The initial motion of Sandy needs to start turning NW to get these closer solutions more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So euro mean ens is where? LOL at your work FB pic geeking out. Yeah...had to take a moment and add to the hype. Meteotrade with a dramatic look..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I am hoping the ensembles show NYC or north - isn't that where they have been? Could it be the Euro is too far south and GFS to far north and NYC is the middle point between the two? NYC very well may be a fair estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 SREFs are pretty far east of 09z FWIW (which is probably not much) The initial motion of Sandy needs to start turning NW to get these closer solutions more likely. Closer meaning what? The more West solutions shown by the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Central NJ or so..give or take 30 miles. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z ensembles NJ landfall looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah...had to take a moment and add to the hype. Meteotrade with a dramatic look..lol. Miss Mts winter work. I agree with Will, Sandy is going to be East of a Euro check point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is what the AmericanWx shows at 18z...looks like NYC or LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Closer meaning what? The more West solutions shown by the Euro? be careful what you hope for, just sayin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Miss Mts winter work. I agree with Will, Sandy is going to be East of a Euro check point. Your thoughts on S RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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