dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gibbs says euro is NYC Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wallops island landfall. Meh here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It actually turns the thing about south of due west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 you can go to ecmwf.int to get full run... Not a ton of detail, but it's been out for 10 mins now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 108 almost a due west into de bay. Can't see till hi res maps come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wallops island landfall. Meh here. Pretty close to 00z. A devastating hit for southern NJ and the Delmarva and the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro is the furthest south of any guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 114 south of dc? or just about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow never thought that we would potentially miss out on it because it LF so far south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro still seems the furthest south compared to the other models, can it come further south or is that not possible, Sandy's moving fairly quickly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is extraordinary and would likely result in severe coastal flooding for a huge part of the NE... including the Sound and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It actually turns the thing about south of due west lol Tornado threat ala Beulah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yeah seems like its phasing to quick im guessing somewhere around nyc is the best bet as of now Euro is the furthest south of any guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 its like the sandy fishtails her way into MD/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No it's more like DE. NYC? DE? Meh, what's a few hundred miles between friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is extraordinary and would likely result in severe coastal flooding for a huge part of the NE... including the Sound and NYC. Due to strong east winds ahead of it I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Due to strong east winds ahead of it I assume? Yeah long fetch and then a long duration of southeasterlies too once storm moves inland. This thing will be a giant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Landfall SW of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 we may escape with a breezy showery day out of this run - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Let's see what the 12z Euro Ens do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Toss it Why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Maybe some lawn furniture blown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 we may escape with a breezy showery day out of this run - ha The overall trend is heading in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the models are overdoing the amount of capture with this storm and tugging it west too much...that will be even worse. The storm would otherwise be faster and more of a NNW trajectory. I almost have to believe that the models (especially the ECMWF) have to be overdoing the capture and westward tug. It almost seems unbelievable how far and fast the Euro swings this thing. I mean seriously how strong of a vortmax is required to pull a Hurricane do left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 And I thought we could start narrowing the landfall between Cape May and Cape Cod...Euro ever so stubborn with that monsterous phase job tugging it W or even WSW, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If Sandy remain warm core, and it should at least to HAT, then the Euro solution of early capture does not make sense to me. It would seem that the GEM and GFS would make more "meteorological" sense. But this wole setup is unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I almost have to believe that the models (especially the ECMWF) have to be overdoing the capture and westward tug. It almost seems unbelievable how far and fast the Euro swings this thing. I mean seriously how strong of a vortmax is required to pull a Hurricane do left? And I thought we could start narrowing the landfall between Cape May and Cape Cod...Euro ever so stubborn with that monsterous phase job tugging it W or even WSW, lol. I have a hard time believing a track like this. The Euro appears to be phasing too quickly... which it seems to try to do every once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 65-70 and chance of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If Sandy remain warm core, and it should at least to HAT, then the Euro solution of early capture does not make sense to me. It would seem that the GEM and GFS would make more "meteorological" sense. But this wole setup is unprecedented. Sandy will remain warm core through landfall... even if it's near Boston. Every model shows a deeply warm core system... without even hints of that warm core structure weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have a hard time believing a track like this. The Euro appears to be phasing too quickly... which it seems to try to do every once in a while. Well lets think this through....why is it phasing it quicker? Less interaction between ATL system and the storm? On the flip side, is it strengthening Sandy slower? A stronger Sandy would probably delay phasing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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