HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I agree with this. I think this is something that could still throw a monkey wrench in the forecast. I have noted that the entire evolution of that Rex block has trended toward what the Euro has been steadfast in showing with enough ridging west of the central Atl low to prevent Sandy from losing too much longitude. Yes. This is why ensemble mean trends in the Atlantic's situation including the Sunday lobe will be critical. The ECMWF was the least robust with the lobe's effects and something to pay attention to after the 12z run is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS is quite early but it seems to have great agreement. Hurricane here on Monday. Serious question... but is this similar to what the models would have looked like prior to the 1938 storm? Thankfully this storm is much weaker at this point of its life than '38.... but it really is the best analog to the synoptic setup and forecast extratropical transition. I would definitely not call '38 an analog, or any of the well known post-1950 New England canes. One key in all those storms was a transition to actually a very positive NAO as the "mean" position of the hurricane was around the Bahamas ... so there was plenty of ridging over the northwest Atlantic into Newfoundland. This sling shot storms northward. This case is very different ... which also manifests itself to a highly unique landfall approach from the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would definitely not call '38 an analog, or any of the well known post-1950 New England canes. One key in all those storms was a transition to actually a very positive NAO as the "mean" position of the hurricane was around the Bahamas ... so there was plenty of ridging over the northwest Atlantic into Newfoundland. This sling shot storms northward. This case is very different ... which also manifests itself to a highly unique landfall approach from the southeast I was more talking about the interaction with the digging low to the west and subsequent extratropical transition to warm seclusion... not the entire synoptic setup... because yeah it is much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So remember there are variables here. First, the track for the next 36 hrs or so. How far west will it go? Then the track and speed of the NE motion. At this point...how strong is the ridge to the west of the NATL and speed and strength of S/W approaching? Now, at this point...how fast does it turn NW? This is a product of strength and tropical nature of storm, ridging to the northeast of it...and strength of negatively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan will be e specially interested in this... CL&P has opened up an EOC (Emergency ops. center) in anticipation. It looks like they're trying to prepare for this much more than they did for the previous two biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11/12 of GEFS members now show a very significant weather event for at least one significant US citiy(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Unfortunately, I agree. I was looking at that earlier. I've never seen anything like it. This post frightens the bejeezus out of me. Realistically the region should be getting ready soon. Good luck presenting this to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm afraid those totals would be woefully underdone, with all else being equal.... Upslope enhancement X Berkshires, Greens, Taconics and Catskills will be huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 11/12 of GEFS members now show a very significant weather event for at least one significant US citiy(s). Looks like NJ in the crosshairs, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the chances that the actual results of this storm...especially away from the coast are not much more than a moderate noreaster here in SNE? With all the hype of TV and in the media about this being "The Perfect Storm II" and a once in a lifetime storm. Is there a chance that all of the weather fans are so caught up in the once in a lifetime evolution of the system rather than the once in a lifetime strength and consequences of it. The reality is is that we will be dealing with a tropical storm force storm wind field. the fact of the matter is that if the majority of the area gets gusts to 50 or 60 mph and a few inches of rain...they really will not care about it's hybrid nature, or that it was captured and approached us from a unique angle. I am hearing a lot of posts which generally are stating that we are about to witness a "once in a lifetime storm" but the models are not spitting out once in a lifetime, rainfalla mounts, winds, of flooding. Sure the evolution of this storm will make the history books as it seems as if something unique in terms of set up is on the table, but will the consequences match? just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I propose a new name for this as Sandy doesn't do it justice. No. The real name should be, Super Hybrid Long Island Denuder of 2012 .... a 2nd option might be the City Mower Storm of 2012, as it applies to NYC. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the FEMA war room today. I wonder what their plans are for stopping a 10-15' storm surge from breaching into Lower Manahattan - who was that Meteorologist that used to frequent Eastern that wrote some novel .... I think it was called "Category 6"? Fiction that discussed the possibility of a hyper storm that drilled a massive storm surge into the NY Bite area. The memory is vague. I never read it, but I did stay at a Hilton Inn last night an.... eh hm. I was watching some PBS show about natural disasters, and they actually brought up the scenario - some FEMA rep was talking head opining about how so many of these cities along the Mid Atlantic and New England coasts are build within 6 feet of water level in some cases, with very little storm surge protection. In 1938, Narr. Bay in RI had 26' storm surge waters piled up in it from a land fall that was over a 100 miles west. Here, we have a warm secluded Sith Lord of a raging bomb that is a "Hook Storm" scenario, which is when slams in from the SE or ESE. And it is doing it upon the Astrotides - I just find that coincidence of plausibilities staggering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JChace029 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the chances that the actual results of this storm...especially away from the coast are not much more than a moderate noreaster here in SNE? With all the hype of TV and in the media about this being "The Perfect Storm II" and a once in a lifetime storm. Is there a chance that all of the weather fans are so caught up in the once in a lifetime evolution of the system rather than the once in a lifetime strength and consequences of it. The reality is is that we will be dealing with a tropical storm force storm wind field. the fact of the matter is that if the majority of the area gets gusts to 50 or 60 mph and a few inches of rain...they really will not care about it's hybrid nature, or that it was captured and approached us from a unique angle. I am hearing a lot of posts which generally are stating that we are about to witness a "once in a lifetime storm" but the models are not spitting out once in a lifetime, rainfalla mounts, winds, of flooding. Sure the evolution of this storm will make the history books as it seems as if something unique in terms of set up is on the table, but will the consequences match? just wondering. The thing you are not understanding with that phrasing here Cyclone, is that this forum is made of weather "experts" and actual Meteorologists and that means they aren't always interested in the total impact of the storms affect on a residential area but how a storm forms. It's no different than a nuclear physicist being excited about the collision of atoms, but not about an atomic bomb. These people are there to see how weather acts, forms, reacts, and its statistics so a "Perfect Storm" or "Once in a Lifetime Storm" to them, doesn't mean catastrophic damage or flooding for peoples homes etc. The storm could never touch ground for a moment, and this is still a great event for them to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Upslope enhancement X Berkshires, Greens, Taconics and Catskills will be huge! Oh, yeah. You aren't kidding. This could be like a prolonged Irene, except with much stronger winds to boot. If Sandy comes in south of us, the enhancement on the east slopes will be tremendous with that type of easterly low-level jet and tropical moisture getting wrapped in. Picture a quasi-stationary firehose from the E and SE with unrelenting torrential rains and gusty winds. Worst case scenarios would be 10"+ of rain for MPM and MRG's area. Will Route 2 get washed out again? The potential is also there for downsloping to increase wind speeds on the west facing slopes of these mountain ranges as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 euro has 953mb at hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro gonna be west of 00z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I have seen some analogs to hazel and 1938 on here, but is there any true analog for what we are seeing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the chances that the actual results of this storm...especially away from the coast are not much more than a moderate noreaster here in SNE? With all the hype of TV and in the media about this being "The Perfect Storm II" and a once in a lifetime storm. Is there a chance that all of the weather fans are so caught up in the once in a lifetime evolution of the system rather than the once in a lifetime strength and consequences of it. The reality is is that we will be dealing with a tropical storm force storm wind field. the fact of the matter is that if the majority of the area gets gusts to 50 or 60 mph and a few inches of rain...they really will not care about it's hybrid nature, or that it was captured and approached us from a unique angle. I am hearing a lot of posts which generally are stating that we are about to witness a "once in a lifetime storm" but the models are not spitting out once in a lifetime, rainfalla mounts, winds, of flooding. Sure the evolution of this storm will make the history books as it seems as if something unique in terms of set up is on the table, but will the consequences match? just wondering. Widespread gusts to 50 or 60 with an isolated area of 70 or 80 would be pretty devastating in terms of downed trees. Storm surge on the coast could be really bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro gonna be west of 00z I think. Slower it seems as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 78 it's phasing. Nasty looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 down to 938mb at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Its right by HSE at 90 No east of there by 200nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Apparently just east of wallops island@96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro looks a touch east from 00z and slower through 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gibbs says euro is NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 102 OCMD landfall or really really close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gibbs says euro is NYC No it's more like DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are you all looking at some other model? It's 200 miles off hatteras at 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro will make landfall near Delaware Bay... a bit slower than 00z run. Phenomenal agreement though from 00z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 932mb at 96 wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like this goes waayy west no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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