OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think NHC needs to think about upping it's landfall forecast... if nothing else but for preparedness sake. A cat 1 landfall forecast carries more weight than a 60 knot tropical storm for some... no matter what else is said about a storm. Yeah, potential storm surge will be greater than a cat 1 for sure given it's landfall trajectory, min pressure, size, and history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 UKMET slingshots Sandy back into SNE... prob BOS area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is ridiculous. Two left exit regions and two right entrance regions pretty much collocated at Sandy's location. I drew the jet streak directions in green and labeled left exit with LEx and right entrance with REn. The jet east of Maine is an EASTERLY jet which makes that region a left exit region. Pretty incredible. I do not think a 940mb low is out of the cards, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah this thing definitely has a warm core look at 700mb. Wow. 700mb temps of +10c to +13c are just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One thing I worry about is the coastal flooding potential could be extremely serious. Say it's a cat 1 storm... we could be dealing with a full 36 hours of gusty winds prior to the arrival of a core of hurricane force winds. That would be absolutely devastating. Something we haven't seen with any other hurricane before. The approach angle... even if it's NNW... is quite worrisome for the most vulnerable city... New York. Not often that somewhere in the northeast nearly winds up in the northeast quadrant of a tropical system... I have not seen much mention but there would certainly be a tornado threat as well to a densely populated region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What link do you use to see GEM? E-Wall works well Also, http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We are getting a consensus it appears of a LI/ NYC landfall model wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is ridiculous. Two left exit regions and two right entrance regions pretty much collocated at Sandy's location. I drew the jet streak directions in green and labeled left exit with LEx and right entrance with REn. The jet east of Maine is an EASTERLY jet which makes that region a left exit region. Pretty incredible. I do not think a 940mb low is out of the cards, at all. Unfortunately, I agree. I was looking at that earlier. I've never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We are getting a consensus it appears of a LI/ NYC landfall model wise lets see the Euro, because right now its at MD/NJ not LI. Consensus does show a US hit for sure now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What kind of temps is Southern NE looking at after the storm passes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We are getting a consensus it appears of a LI/ NYC landfall model wise Well, you can throw out the GFS so that still leaves things up in the air right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS bring it into NYC and stall lol. Wicked gradient over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS is quite early but it seems to have great agreement. Hurricane here on Monday. Serious question... but is this similar to what the models would have looked like prior to the 1938 storm? Thankfully this storm is much weaker at this point of its life than '38.... but it really is the best analog to the synoptic setup and forecast extratropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Unfortunately, I agree. I was looking at that earlier. I've never seen anything like it. Yeah. This is not a typical scenario where you have to assume the model is too strong. With FOUR jet regions favorable for baroclinic deepening and potential fujiwara, this is truly a unique situation where past model convention does not apply. The other situations where models had too low of pressures did not have an environment remotely resembling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like you can narrow landfall down to Cape May to Chatham right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS is quite early but it seems to have great agreement. Hurricane here on Monday. Serious question... but is this similar to what the models would have looked like prior to the 1938 storm? Thankfully this storm is much weaker at this point of its life than '38.... but it really is the best analog to the synoptic setup and forecast extratropical transition. Wasn't 1938 a MUCH quicker mover along a MUCH straighter track? Not sure they're that comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wasn't 1938 a MUCH quicker mover along a MUCH straighter track? Not sure they're that comparable. That's assuming the GFS op is right. I could see a faster track and something that is more of a straighter track. Many GEFS members are quite fast (not 38 fast) but fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GEFS bring it into NYC and stall lol. Wicked gradient over head. How have the ensemble mean trends been with the blocking in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 How have the ensemble mean trends been with the blocking in the Atlantic? Stronger blocking has been the signal I've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like you can narrow landfall down to Cape May to Chatham right now. I think it is far more likely to landfall somewhere on planet Earth - just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the models are overdoing the amount of capture with this storm and tugging it west too much...that will be even worse. The storm would otherwise be faster and more of a NNW trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 E-Wall works well Also, http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html Or here: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the models are overdoing the amount of capture with this storm and tugging it west too much...that will be even worse. The storm would otherwise be faster and more of a NNW trajectory. Yup. And I think this is actually the more likely (an less anomalous) setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the SST's out there south of 70/40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What are the SST's out there south of 70/40? http://www.ospo.noaa...usatlant.cf.gif remember, celsius to F is roughly * 1.8 + 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yup. And I think this is actually the more likely (an less anomalous) setup. Climatology certainly would favor the slam over the low moving left (west) hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yup. And I think this is actually the more likely (an less anomalous) setup. What do you mean? You think a further north hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Stronger blocking has been the signal I've been seeing. Indeed but the Central Atlantic's low and western lobe will still bring the system some eastwardly movement on Sunday, the degree of which is very important of course. Should this occur and the phasing / backing west track process is overdone, the could lead to significant eastward alterations in the coming days ahead in the NWP. Lobed vortices, undercutting ridges and fujiwara playgrounds are major causes for last minute revisions in forecasts. That will be my stern warning of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What do you mean? You think a further north hit? Well we've talked a few times about a due west track being perhaps to much of a longitudinal pull. Chances are it may have too much westerly pull, but a more NW tug would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Indeed but the Central Atlantic's low and western lobe will still bring the system some eastwardly movement on Sunday, the degree of which is very important of course. Should this occur and the phasing / backing west track process is overdone, the could lead to significant eastward alterations in the coming days ahead in the NWP. Lobed vortices, undercutting ridges and fujiwara playgrounds are major causes for last minute revisions in forecasts. That will be my stern warning of the day. I agree with this. I think this is something that could still throw a monkey wrench in the forecast. I have noted that the entire evolution of that Rex block has trended toward what the Euro has been steadfast in showing with enough ridging west of the central Atl low to prevent Sandy from losing too much longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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