free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Maybe... but the GEFS have been steadily moving in the right direction even though the op was steadfast. The GEFS seems to have taken a giant leap backwards with what they have been doing. Could be a hiccup... not sure. Thanks man. I made a mistake there so edited my post. iirc the 18z runs are always more questionable (most?) - since it ingests data from earlier. also, the 12z op gfs and ens only began to shift west, so perhaps it was only beginning to latch onto a more reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 recon found 961 mb last pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 961.5 mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Question from last thread: From a PV perspective, two cyclone PV anomalies repel, such that a stronger PV anomaly (referring to the mid level circulation associated with the hurricane), would tend to be more difficult to phase with another cyclonic anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Major before Cuba? LEK ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW- 18z GFDL http://raleighwx.ame...HGHTPMSL126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is 961mb the lowest pressure of the season so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 925 mb are a dime a dozen nowadays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 FWIW- 18z GFDL http://raleighwx.ame...HGHTPMSL126.gif Wow..nice grab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man, watching the World Series and tracking what, at the very least will be a strong autumnal nor'easter, and could be significantly historic if the models aren't playing a prank...pretty sweet. Gotta love the fall...tons of potential for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/10/24/some-impact-from-sandy-appears-more-likely/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 00:15:00Z 18.600N 76.233W 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg) 2,883 meters (~ 9,459 feet) 968.7 mb (~ 28.61 inHg) - From 230° at 95 knots (From the SW at ~ 109.2 mph) 15.2°C (~ 59.4°F) 7.6°C (~ 45.7°F) 96 knots (~ 110.4 mph) 70 knots (~ 80.5 mph) 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr) 69.3 knots (~ 79.7 mph) Category One Hurricane 72.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow..nice grab On my phone but that looks like it is hitting the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan....rs-more-likely/ Ryan, nice discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan....rs-more-likely/ Nicely laid out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan, nice discussion. Thanks, Wes. I appreciate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Call me crazy...but that doughnut shape makes me think Sandy is going annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thoughts on Sandy: http://ryanhanrahan....rs-more-likely/ Good write up Ryan, very informative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can you imagine the state of Kevin's mind if this thing didn't happen ? wow. abject terror - He'd probably 5 ppd himself! The members are still a little indecisive on what to do with Sandy as I think (and Ryan alluded to) they are seeing a weakness to help escape NE. This causes it to just miss the S/W allowing it to capture. I don't think the GFS is entirely correct in playing around with the blocking...so it looks suspicious to me. What Kevin is seeing as the "mean" is also a combo of low pressure developing along the inverted trough so it is important to not focus on the MSLP exact location. I mean you can see just from looking at the mean MSLP that we must have large spread. The contours have a lot of space around the lone isobar near the center. Something of interest to me, is the intensification of Sandy. Deep convection tends to want to drift towards weak spots in the upper level steering flow, so we need to watch for that. This is just one of many reasons why subtle things can effect the location hundreds of miles downstream in 5-6 days. Luckily, the blocking is progged to be so strong..that it is possible to have a margin of error...but that margin of error is not indefinite. But same said release of latent heat being exhausted by the TC would tend to feed the ridge upstream of the TC, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 amazing sandy might be at cat3 at landfall in cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ryan, great blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm thinking cat 3 tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If Sandy is stronger would that cause her to potentially curve away to the NE OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought you said the GFS didn't make sense? Do more of the members look like they make sense to you in order to make the mean make sense? I saw your "NW CT" comment in the other grhead, Chris--you're in Storrs 2/3 of the year. Once again..it seems like we would be much better off if the GFS didn't exist. We have a general concensus with every other model and because so many worship it...it is given way too much credence We do? I think the 12z EC would differ on that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 North-West quad of Sandy is literally exploding. Frequent lightning being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 He'd probably 5 ppd himself! But same said release of latent heat being exhausted by the TC would tend to feed the ridge upstream of the TC, too That's true as well and this is going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm thinking cat 3 tonight lol SSTs support a cat 4 at least, or a 5? not weenie hyping, just for threshold purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 North-West quad of Sandy is literally exploding. Frequent lightning being reported. That's a good sign of RI. Probably will be a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Great write up Ryan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm thinking cat 3 tonight lol YUUUUUUUUP! (Storage Wars anyone?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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