Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It looks totally warm core to me. Surprisingly, this storm may wind up being quite tropical... more so than a storm getting ripped apart by 50 knot southerly shear. It's warm secluded and deadly - unfortunately, that can't be underscored enough regarding this run I assume you are talking about the GFS operational ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wonder what ballpark estimates for surge into western long island sound would be with that gfs track? 7-10 feet? Probably verbatim its not nearly that bad for LI sound...still big, but the winds are more northerly initially and the storm almost goes right over LI from the ENE...if the GFS solution was like 100-150 miles south, it would probably be a lot worse. Worst spot for LI sound is a storm along the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Probably verbatim its not nearly that bad for LI sound...still big, but the winds are more northerly initially and the storm almost goes right over LI from the ENE...if the GFS solution was like 100-150 miles south, it would probably be a lot worse. Worst spot for LI sound is a storm along the NJ coast. Thanks, surge was 5 feet here with Irene plus astro on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It looks totally warm core to me. Surprisingly, this storm may wind up being quite tropical... more so than a storm getting ripped apart by 50 knot southerly shear. Which is so weird for late October to me. We are looking at an extremely strong projected warm-core storm for the northeast. I do not think, based on all models available, that this storm will be anywhere near cold-core/extratropical at landfall. Of course there will be baroclinic enhancement... but the construction of the storm from model depictions is very, very much warm-core. That is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Probably verbatim its not nearly that bad for LI sound...still big, but the winds are more northerly initially and the storm almost goes right over LI from the ENE...if the GFS solution was like 100-150 miles south, it would probably be a lot worse. Worst spot for LI sound is a storm along the NJ coast. Isn't that basically meeting the 0z OP ECM and 12z GFS halfway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Probably verbatim its not nearly that bad for LI sound...still big, but the winds are more northerly initially and the storm almost goes right over LI from the ENE...if the GFS solution was like 100-150 miles south, it would probably be a lot worse. Worst spot for LI sound is a storm along the NJ coast. Yes... 1893 had a tide level in Stamford that eclipsed the '92 noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Which is so weird for late October to me. We are looking at an extremely strong projected warm-core storm for the northeast. I do not think, based on all models available, that this storm will be anywhere near cold-core/extratropical at landfall. Of course there will be baroclinic enhancement... but the construction of the storm from model depictions is very, very much warm-core. That is concerning. Not just that, but I've always held "in order to get a strong tropical cyclone to have large impact north of the Mason/Dixon, it must be fast moving" to be a law of nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah this thing definitely has a warm core look at 700mb. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Which is so weird for late October to me. We are looking at an extremely strong projected warm-core storm for the northeast. I do not think, based on all models available, that this storm will be anywhere near cold-core/extratropical at landfall. Of course there will be baroclinic enhancement... but the construction of the storm from model depictions is very, very much warm-core. That is concerning. I think it's a bit of a feedback cycle. The jet/baroclinic support is so extreme we're actually able to strengthen the storm while keeping it warm core. It's an exceptionally unusual situation and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it's a bit of a feedback cycle. The jet/baroclinic support is so extreme we're actually able to strengthen the storm while keeping it warm core. It's an exceptionally unusual situation and track. Total 90 degree cross contour ageo flow at 300mb. Also look at the 500 temps akin to PV anomalies. Just dumbell around each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Total 90 degree cross contour ageo flow at 300mb. Also look at the 500 temps akin to PV anomalies. Just dumbell around each other. Fujiwhara occurs between PV anomalies with absolutely epic divergence upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Probably verbatim its not nearly that bad for LI sound...still big, but the winds are more northerly initially and the storm almost goes right over LI from the ENE...if the GFS solution was like 100-150 miles south, it would probably be a lot worse. Worst spot for LI sound is a storm along the NJ coast. Will, the storm motion between 120 and 132 hours is ESE --> WNW, not ENE, but perhaps that's a type-o. In any case, a storm surge being funneled up the Sound doesn't need a perfect wind trajectory. Remember folks, there are 2 types of storm surges: -- Those that are purely for piling storm wave energy onto the coast at a faster right than recedes -- Low pressure. Having a 948mb low approaching the Sound from the ESE is going to have a dome of risen oceanic depth, with storm waves riding over the top. It's this dome of ocean that gets funneled up the Sound and they got real real problems considering its Astro tide timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm starting to think that these pressures are NOT too low. Deep warm seclusion plus a PERFECT jet structure makes me think a 940mb low is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm expecting a poorly forecast PRE as well. Just don't know where/when yet. If LF around NYC/NNJ I think PRE or a pseudo PRE will be west of the stalling Cold fropa. Initially thinking here at work is like in an area bounded by BFD to ROC in the west to perhaps BGM-Oswego, NY in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Per GFS, at least this is not an insane rain maker like earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not just that, but I've always held "in order to get a strong tropical cyclone to have large impact north of the Mason/Dixon, it must be fast moving" to be a law of nature. Oh absolutely. I think it's a bit of a feedback cycle. The jet/baroclinic support is so extreme we're actually able to strengthen the storm while keeping it warm core. It's an exceptionally unusual situation and track. Yup... it's almost the perfect situation to be able to get something like this. You know usually we see something somewhat similar further down in the tropics when cold fronts come to recurve a system in the Gulf or Caribbean... I'm reminded of several times some people will say "oh, this is going to increase the shear over the system and it's going to have no chance to strengthen..." when in actuality... before the shear gets there... the flow actually helps to dramatically increase the outflow around the TC, which can lead to rapid intensification. Hurricane Charley is a good example of this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think NHC needs to think about upping it's landfall forecast... if nothing else but for preparedness sake. A cat 1 landfall forecast carries more weight than a 60 knot tropical storm for some... no matter what else is said about a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's so lopsided that heaviest rains are on back side deformation area with screaming W-NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I may be dreaming this up but it distinctly looks like for the past 2.5 hours Sandy has lost the east component as is moving due N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Per GFS, at least this is not an insane rain maker like earlier runs. I also thought it was going to have more rain, since it stalls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I may be dreaming this up but it distinctly looks like for the past 2.5 hours Sandy has lost the east component as is moving due N Sandy is probably going to wobble between NE/N/NW in a curvy fashion for the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I may be dreaming this up but it distinctly looks like for the past 2.5 hours Sandy has lost the east component as is moving due N i see it too on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Per GFS, at least this is not an insane rain maker like earlier runs. I'm afraid those totals would be woefully underdone, with all else being equal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is west through 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is west through 84 hours What link do you use to see GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is west through 84 hours Just south of Long Island & Brooklyn gets down to 938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Per GFS, at least this is not an insane rain maker like earlier runs. retro desktop! Windows XP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One thing I worry about is the coastal flooding potential could be extremely serious. Say it's a cat 1 storm... we could be dealing with a full 36 hours of gusty winds prior to the arrival of a core of hurricane force winds. That would be absolutely devastating. Something we haven't seen with any other hurricane before. The approach angle... even if it's NNW... is quite worrisome for the most vulnerable city... New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM just south of LI and right into NY harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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