CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's almost worst case for LI sound too. LGA will be a new shipping port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Jesus. Stunning fujiwhara interaction between the ULL to the west that's cutting off and Sandy.Results in a severe hurricane strike for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 941mb at its lowest just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z GFS Cape Breton landfall 0Z GFS Halifax landfall 6Z GFS Maine landfall 12Z GFS? Maybe we'll get it down to BOS Actually looks a hair east of 06z at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Someone is going to face one of the most destructive storms in history. I can honestly say I've never seen anything like what's being modeled. The goalposts continue to narrow between the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Stalls over wrn LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 But it's probably not reality. It's really just the GFS trying to catch up to the more western models. Yup. Wow. Solid hurricane coming in from the SW. Time to run those worst case scenario SW approach SLOSH models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like Montauk point is about to get washed away......along with the rest of New England. This run from the GFS has to be a worst case scenario for Southern New England. A 940 mb Hurricane making landfall somewhere on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Stalls over wrn LI. I know it's early, but what's the time frame for that solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know it's early, but what's the time frame for that solution? GFS says Monday Night and Tuesday, but chance of it being a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anywhere from NJ to the Cape may be landfall destination for sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS says Monday Night and Tuesday, but chance of it being a little earlier. Yeah I still think an earlier and less extreme curve is far more likely. But we know that the GFS is saying to us now... this block is going to hold. It's coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's almost worst case for LI sound too. LGA will be a new shipping port. Or a new seaplane airport. No take off or landing from the runway out towards the LI sound for a a few days I think as it will be underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Most of us would be severely effected. I hope the airlines don't start canceling flights Sunday as I feel the need to be with my wife and daughter for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man this thing has some serious stall potential. GFS moves it about the length of LI over a 12-hour period from 126-138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Two wind Max. Howling NE winds WAAAY ahead of storm, then epic east winds as Sandy moves by. At least as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I still think an earlier and less extreme curve is far more likely. But we know that the GFS is saying to us now... this block is going to hold. It's coming this way. Yep, now a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS has over 50 knots sustained at the sfc on the Cape...with 90 knots not too far off the deck. That would be a hellecious storm surge for E MA. At any rate, I am doubting we see the storm come in from that direction at that latitude...still think something a bit closer to the Euro is more likely and also heading more NNW at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If we could just lock this. I still think Sunday nite and Monday is the timeframe though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is a good 18-24 hours slower than the 0Z EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS has over 50 knots sustained at the sfc on the Cape...with 90 knots not too far off the deck. That would be a hellecious storm surge for E MA. At any rate, I am doubting we see the storm come in from that direction at that latitude...still think something a bit closer to the Euro is more likely and also heading more NNW at landfall. Yeah I don't totally buy the massive slightshot west, something from a NW heading seems more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's not uncommon for the city to close the hurricane barrier during nor'easters - especially during periods of astronomical high tide. do you think the PVD hurricane barrier will get used? second time in 2 years possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep, now a matter of where. This run was a stepping stone toward the Euro. I think the euro targest NYC/west LI at 12z and if it does, things become quite a bit more likely for that particular area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I don't totally buy the massive slightshot west, something from a NW heading seems more realistic. Most of the scenarios are bad if it makes landfall between the Cape or NNJ...the morw NNW heading scenarios are obviously worse for the south coast like Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay while the W heading scenarios are worse for the E coast of MA. The NNW heading scenario into W LI while accelerating initially (before slowing down from capture) is probably the worst wind scenario for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This run was a stepping stone toward the Euro. I think the euro targest NYC/west LI at 12z and if it does, things become quite a bit more likely for that particular area. I would agree. With a windfield so massive, JFK or GON wouldn't almost matter as far as landfall goes. However, right near the center...the potential exists for very strong winds if it holds onto tropical characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Most of the scenarios are bad if it makes landfall between the Cape or NNJ...the morw NNW heading scenarios are obviously worse for the south coast like Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay while the W heading scenarios are worse for the E coast of MA. The NNW heading scenario into W LI while accelerating initially (before slowing down from capture) is probably the worst wind scenario for SNE. Yeah would not be good as a whole. The wind field is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm expecting a poorly forecast PRE as well. Just don't know where/when yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wonder what ballpark estimates for surge into western long island sound would be with that gfs track? 7-10 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would agree. With a windfield so massive, JFK or GON wouldn't almost matter as far as landfall goes. However, right near the center...the potential exists for very strong winds if it holds onto tropical characteristics. It looks totally warm core to me. Surprisingly, this storm may wind up being quite tropical... more so than a storm getting ripped apart by 50 knot southerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 W T F is this That GFS solution from 12z is terrifying if you live in the NY Bite water areas... Seriously, that is about as close to a doomy scenario as one can get without it being a Canary Island bifurcation tsunamis scenario. That stem-winding, house sucker low is moving WNW tugging in a perfect wind trajectory and storm surge, RIGHT OVER TOP THE ASTRO TIDES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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