powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Those windfields mean nothing. What types of winds are people thinking? We really going to get sustained tropical and hurricane force winds inland? Or more like tree top high wind warning 50mph gust type stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This question might belong in the general forum thread but since the most lively discussion is here I'll pose this here...that looks like an awfully big pool of mid level dry air over GOMEX to Sandy west and WSW...what happens when/if she takes a big gulp of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFs is solidly west through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll post the DGEX because it's technically a weather model... That looks like 4'+ for the east half of WVA, unless I'm misreading it badly. Would probably dump loads more even than that at a place like Dolly Sods at 4,000'+. Quadruple-bunner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Actually looks a hair east of 06z at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What types of winds are people thinking? We really going to get sustained tropical and hurricane force winds inland? Or more like tree top high wind warning 50mph gust type stuff? It depends on a few factors... 1.) Just how strong the storm is itself pressure-wise 2.) how fast the forward speed is when it comes ashore 3.) Where it comes ashore 4.) If it is intensifying almost up until landfall There's potential for some really high winds, even inland...but you need a lot of factors to line up. If it makes landfall in Cape May heading WNW, then the winds wont be that impressive in SNE on the whole...if it makes landfall heading NNW into NYC or W LI, then it will almost definitely produce winds considerably stronger than what was seen in Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Took a big jog east at 72-84 but downstream ridging is still stronger than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is stubborn lol Still east after initially hanging a bit closer toward Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Actually looks a hair east of 06z at hr 84. Yeah, does not look too different at this point from 06z. Maybe a hair slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This will have a good sling back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hr 96 is starting to get tugged NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A pretty good read for those who can speed read or have the time, LOL! http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-07222010-184349/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This will have a good sling back. Yeah sharper trough to the west and better downstream ridging through te run to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It begain its final NW turn earlier now is positioned NW of 6z @ 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah wow. I still think you have to go with the Euro and the ensemble members that are faster and farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS still well east but trending. Looks like its bending in from just outside the BM. On my phone so harder to see. Had dinner with Wintrymix last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What's interesting is that the models try to keep this thing over the Gulf Stream for about as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 8mb stronger than 6z and well west at 102 (949mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 down to 949mb at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like New England slam on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS by hour 96 is starting to tug her back northwest after Bermuda gets brushed by the Southeast side of Sandy. It seems right now that the GFS is the eastern extreme and the ECMWF is the western extreme. Honestly believe that something right in the middle is going to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This question might belong in the general forum thread but since the most lively discussion is here I'll pose this here...that looks like an awfully big pool of mid level dry air over GOMEX to Sandy west and WSW...what happens when/if she takes a big gulp of that? That dry air has been there for days, but I see your concern. Initial thought was that some of that dry air would get entrained into the LLC prohibiting strengthening. We all know how that worked out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is going to be a sick solution for E MA...a wall of water coming at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Heading to BID or LI from the SE..lol. Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 down to 942mb .. sheesh.. probably make landfall somewhere near BID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Heading to BID or LI from the SE..lol. Whoa. Yup. Wow. Solid hurricane coming in from the SW. Time to run those worst case scenario SW approach SLOSH models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 do you think the PVD hurricane barrier will get used? second time in 2 years possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 LI hit this go round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like Montauk point is about to get washed away......along with the rest of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 940 near MTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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