Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 And even some storms with the jet interaction get ripped to shreds and don't seem to be able to go warm seclusion. Will also be interesting to see how far west or close to the coast it tracks too. More east less continental dry air ingest into its circulation I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As has been discussed before and in Sam's thread...the intensity of Sandy will probably play a role. The more intense, the longer it will probably take to phase with the PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'd probably say north actually... thinking that the models are a bit phase happy. i think the block is going to counter that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know we're not supposed to look at the NAM right now and blah blah blah. But its got Sandy sitting in a pretty prime spot at 84 hours. If it was on its own I'd say toss it...but the fact that its not all that dissimilar from the EC gives it some credibility. And I know we're still a ways off at this point and no one wants to pull the trigger on sounding alarms too soon...but I really don't think its too soon to be playing up the coastal flooding threat. People on the shoreline need to begin taking preparations. It's the least track dependent and most serious threat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Likewise the closer and further west would be more in line with NJ, agreed with your logic. The Euro runs have had this chug NNW very shortly; I think if we see that, a Delmarva/NJ/western LI landfall becomes more buyable. If it sticks further east... the east end of the GFS ensemble tracks look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro runs have had this chug NNW very shortly; I think if we see that, a Delmarva/NJ/western LI landfall becomes more buyable. If it sticks further east... the east end of the GFS ensemble tracks look better. Well if you look at water vapor, you can see the ULL to the west that will probably cause a NW jog. Even the GFS has that. Then the question is how much will it veer n then ne afterwards, timing of capture, and how quickly it's pulled back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know we're not supposed to look at the NAM right now and blah blah blah. But its got Sandy sitting in a pretty prime spot at 84 hours. If it was on its own I'd say toss it...but the fact that its not all that dissimilar from the EC gives it some credibility. And I know we're still a ways off at this point and no one wants to pull the trigger on sounding alarms too soon...but I really don't think its too soon to be playing up the coastal flooding threat. People on the shoreline need to begin taking preparations. It's the least track dependent and most serious threat right now. Given the fact the storm has a fairly solid motion N now... I think a situation like the NAM won't verify. The NAM is always doing some funky stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for all the information contained in this thread. Millions of folks appear to be effected in some way or another. You have to worry about the post storm cold too. This is not August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yes-fantastic thread...alot of learning material in here-thank you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy is trying to pop an eye again on the visible satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Given the fact the storm has a fairly solid motion N now... I think a situation like the NAM won't verify. The NAM is always doing some funky stuff. To be honest I didn't look at the entire thing...only hour 84. I retract my defense of its credibility. That said, assuming there are no huge jumps east with the 12z suite...I still think its time to play up the coastal flooding threat for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Those windfields mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z Euro 500mb @111hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Those windfields mean nothing. Yeah they said in their discussion that most of their products wouldn't work for a storm like this. I get the feeling that (thank God) they will keep the storm a "storm" through landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If one has read the NHC's 11 am discussion, the last paragraph mentions that due to the expected structural changes that Sandy will undergo 72 + hours from now the "normal" tropical cyclone wind probabilities will UNDERESTIMATE the winds speeds, especially over areas WELL away from the actual TC/PT center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks for all the information contained in this thread. Millions of folks appear to be effected in some way or another. You have to worry about the post storm cold too. This is not August. Especially for those (especially the elderly) that lose power for a few days and do not have generators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah they said in their discussion that most of their products wouldn't work for a storm like this. I get the feeling that (thank God) they will keep the storm a "storm" through landfall. We're entering never before explored territory for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll post the DGEX because it's technically a weather model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah they said in their discussion that most of their products wouldn't work for a storm like this. I get the feeling that (thank God) they will keep the storm a "storm" through landfall. That would be by FAR the best thing to do, even if it's subtropical. As long as they have TS or Hurricane Warnings up, the public will not estimate the strength of the storm if they think it's just a coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Will the winds slowly ramp up Sunday/ Sunday night or will they increase very quickly from south to north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Will the winds slowly ramp up Sunday/ Sunday night or will they increase very quickly from south to north? Very slowly I think. It's going to be a slow process with a massive wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So is the track pretty much set or is it possible to see a LF further north than NJ? Reason I ask is because some have stated that the Euro could be over amplifying the storm. If it is less amplified would that potentially lead to a LF between NYC and Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'll post the DGEX because it's technically a weather model... Yeah that's why you chase this if you like snow...feet and feet and feet in West Virginia. This will be a record destroyer for snow in the mountains there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So is the track pretty much set or is it possible to see a LF further north than NJ? Reason I ask is because some have stated that the Euro could be over amplifying the storm. If it is less amplified would that potentially lead to a LF between NYC and Boston? Definitely not set by any stretch but that area is definitely shrinking in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So is the track pretty much set or is it possible to see a LF further north than NJ? Reason I ask is because some have stated that the Euro could be over amplifying the storm. If it is less amplified would that potentially lead to a LF between NYC and Boston? There's still plenty of uncertainty in the track. Could be anywhere from S NJ to perhaps Maine. The most likely at this point is probably between Cape Cod and central NJ...but still 4 days out, plenty can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Given the fact the storm has a fairly solid motion N now... I think a situation like the NAM won't verify. The NAM is always doing some funky stuff. What you're telling me the loop-de-loop it has Sandy doing over Miami is funky? However, at hour 54, it does have the s/w over Montana a bit stronger and a touch south and it's a bit stronger by hour 84 over the Ohio River Valley. That's I'm looking for when looking at the NAM (albeit with a ton of salt). That and to see how it's handling the block downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Very slowly I think. It's going to be a slow process with a massive wind field. Low level inversion keeping the strongest winds above 2000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Definitely not set by any stretch but that area is definitely shrinking in size. There's still plenty of uncertainty in the track. Could be anywhere from S NJ to perhaps Maine. The most likely at this point is probably between Cape Cod and central NJ...but still 4 days out, plenty can change. Cool - thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is definitely west at hour 72 with a stronger digging trough and stronger downstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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