CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That would be an ugly surge for LI sound and probably up to Narragansett/Buzzards Bay. This will probably have a pretty impressive wind field to the east as it gets "slung" NNW by the phasing PJ. Pretty much worst case scenario surge for the strength of storm. Huge wind field, slow motion, approach from the SW, but still with a tight inner core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC forecast way west. Landfall near NYC just after 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yes, NYC and LIS would be devastated by that surge. Not to mention the fact - astro high tides on Monday - Unusually large wind field (warm seclusion) - Unusually slow motion Worst case for a lot of people. The NHC track makes for a good compromise right now. Into NYC or just SW is a bad situation for a lot of areas that took a hit last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tip. That is a terrific post. As others have said here, there should be concern about public perception of this storm if the term "hurricane" is dropped. Local mets will really have to sound the alarm in the next 12 to 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought this was a Sunday-Monday for NYC.. not Tuesday like NHC map shows. This is actually faster than prior track forecasts...I would not be surprised if they sped it up further esp. w.r.t Sunday-Monday fcst posns, then deceleration due to capture. They have finally gone more left/west too (drastically) IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 In the future give some reasoning. Otherwise stuff like this will be removed. Fair enough...my bad. I know that the models have been showing a hit to that area, so I was just saying that is where I think/hope it goes. Andy's maps above - it looks like it takes that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This seems like it will do something where the whole ENE then WNW track back 1000 miles will be tempered and instead turns more N and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This seems like it will do something where the whole ENE then WNW track back 1000 miles will be tempered and instead turns more N and NW. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man the track into NYC or LI is just devastating for us. The core of the strongest winds out of the SE/ e veering to NE with gusts well above hurricane force up into NNE will be both breathtaking and dangerous. This still doesn't seem real, but we appear to heading into something none of us have ever experienced before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pretty much worst case scenario surge for the strength of storm. Huge wind field, slow motion, approach from the SW, but still with a tight inner core I would imagine that at least two if not three high tide cycles were affected. Each one potentially being higher than its predecessor. Not a good setup for Manhattan especially along the East River and west end of LI Sound from SW coast of CT to Westchester, Bronx and Queens, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pretty much worst case scenario surge for the strength of storm. Huge wind field, slow motion, approach from the SW, but still with a tight inner core We'll have to watch carefully on just when this gets captured fully...it will probably accelerate somewhat when it does, but also the windfield will expand outward and strengthen away from the center with a huge LLJ...could be the worst of both worlds with a rapidly expanding wind field but still holding onto the inner core which would make it terrible for LI sound and potentially NYC/NNJ...depending on where it came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Official forecast at that point is sustained at 60kts gusting to 75kts. It's just so eerie seeing it back NWward toward NJ/NYC like that, a la documentaries I watched as a kid about "worst case weather scenarios". Yeesh. (Those documentaries had a Cat 4/5 in mind, of course, but the track is still impressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We'll have to watch carefully on just when this gets captured fully...it will probably accelerate somewhat when it does, but also the windfield will expand outward and strengthen away from the center with a huge LLJ...could be the worst of both worlds with a rapidly expanding wind field but still holding onto the inner core which would make it terrible for LI sound and potentially NYC/NNJ...depending on where it came ashore. Is this system in a different camp as compared to Irene? It just seems with Irene we had a rapidly decaying system as it approached LI/Ct, whereby Sandy looks to remain relatively healthy with the added impact of the phase/transition to ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 AWT Si'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This seems like it will do something where the whole ENE then WNW track back 1000 miles will be tempered and instead turns more N and NW. I can't quite wrap my head around it. It seems like tiny intricacies in the early track -- next 48 hours -- have major ramifications for the ENE-to-WNW vs. much less dramatic directional changes in a N to NNW to NW type thing. I think the further east of the envelope it is early, the further north it will push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 December 1992 here. I think that was the "Great Shadow" storm here Albany only got 7" or so once the winds backed into the N and NW while higher terrain E-W stayed in strong East flow and got buried IIRC some areas in Catskills got around 2' of snow possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remember too it's a 5 day forecast with a large uncertainty. Any little jog which way and eventual turn NW means a lot as far as landfall is....but in truth...it may not mean a heck of a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I can't quite wrap my head around it. It seems like tiny intricacies in the early track -- next 48 hours -- have major ramifications for the ENE-to-WNW vs. much less dramatic directional changes in a N to NNW to NW type thing. I think the further east of the envelope it is early, the further north it will push. Likewise the closer and further west would be more in line with NJ, agreed with your logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We'll have to watch carefully on just when this gets captured fully...it will probably accelerate somewhat when it does, but also the windfield will expand outward and strengthen away from the center with a huge LLJ...could be the worst of both worlds with a rapidly expanding wind field but still holding onto the inner core which would make it terrible for LI sound and potentially NYC/NNJ...depending on where it came ashore. Is this system in a different camp as compared to Irene? It just seems with Irene we had a rapidly decaying system as it approached LI/Ct, whereby Sandy looks to remain relatively healthy with the added impact of the phase/transition to ET. Yes. The cyclone phase space diagrams show the obvious concern with a strengthening wind field and tight inner core remaining. This likely won't have an ugly appearance like Irene as it makes landfall. The warm seclusion scenario is always one of the most frightening. Thankfully this storm isn't any strong down south but this really has the potential to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weren't the ECMWF Ensembles further north with the landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weren't the ECMWF Ensembles further north with the landfall? No, basically into Sandy hook NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is this system in a different camp as compared to Irene? It just seems with Irene we had a rapidly decaying system as it approached LI/Ct, whereby Sandy looks to remain relatively healthy with the added impact of the phase/transition to ET. Yes, this system will have much more baroclinic assist than Irene had. Usually is the case with storms later in the season. Irene was pretty early...happening in August. 1938 was late September and of course Hazel was in October. Irene just sort of meandered up the coast with no real strong jet interacting with it...it slowly became extra-tropical but never got much of a boost relatively speaking, maybe a slight one. This storm is going to have some serious jet energy infused into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are northern New England ski areas looking at tremendous rainfall and flooding again? On the cusp of their season, that would be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Man the track into NYC or LI is just devastating for us. The core of the strongest winds out of the SE/ e veering to NE with gusts well above hurricane force up into NNE will be both breathtaking and dangerous. This still doesn't seem real, but we appear to heading into something none of us have ever experienced before. Does BDL gust over 50mph in this? I still won't believe hurricane force winds inland until I see that OB from an ASOS haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Weren't the ECMWF Ensembles further north with the landfall? just south of NYC i think NJ is a good landfall forecast at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yes, this system will have much more baroclinic assist than Irene had. Usually is the case with storms later in the season. Irene was pretty early...happening in August. 1938 was late September and of course Hazel was in October. Irene just sort of meandered up the coast with no real strong jet interacting with it...it slowly became extra-tropical but never got much of a boost relatively speaking, maybe a slight one. This storm is going to have some serious jet energy infused into it. And even some storms with the jet interaction get ripped to shreds and don't seem to be able to go warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No, basically into Sandy hook NJ. Oh ok - the link Matt Noyes posted on FB must have been yesterday's run... http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/10/wednesday-update-coastal-communities-make-early-preps-for-potential-sandy.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 just south of NYC i think NJ is a good landfall forecast at this time I'd probably say north actually... thinking that the models are a bit phase happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are northern New England ski areas looking at tremendous rainfall and flooding again? On the cusp of their season, that would be terrible. Depends on how far south it tracks...NYC and south we might be north of the heaviest rain...a track into Maine would be a problem. Strong east flow into the mountains will wring out every drop of available moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is this system in a different camp as compared to Irene? It just seems with Irene we had a rapidly decaying system as it approached LI/Ct, whereby Sandy looks to remain relatively healthy with the added impact of the phase/transition to ET. Absolutely. The baroclinic environment preceding Sandy was still quasi tropical if you will in late summer; Sandy is a different time of year and totally different environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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