HM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I do not see anything on the GFS in terms of U/A flow that will shunt it off to the ENE-NE OTS. Well, I would say there is some more interaction with the western vort of the Atlantic Low on the GFS but the positioning just before and during this period (Sunday) does seem too far to the east given the ridge placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Storm surge maps are up and running , just starting to show impacts. I fully expect these numbers to rival 92 numbers. Not good fellas, not good. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&map=0-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Storm surge maps are up and running , just starting to show impacts. I fully expect these numbers to rival 92 numbers. Not good fellas, not good. http://www.nws.noaa....ion=ne&map=0-96 Not sure i would want to be in your area for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure i would want to be in your area for this Yea, I would not want to have coastal property. My hope,sorry anyone, do not wish this on anyone, if its going to happen, way South or way North of me but that is the billion dollar, literally, question. Check out the predicted wave heights and the vast area of the East Coast they envelop, anyone with a south or East component of winds is looking at real problems, especially if more than one Full Moon tide cycle is involved. One saving grace is the new moon tide cycle was almost 2 feet higher, using Boston as a benchmark, so hopefully that is a mitigating factor. Honestly pretty damn nervous as a lot of folks are, lots of family and friends in SRI, plus there is work, a huge facility to manage. Watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 name='Typhoon Tip' timestamp='1351132485' post='1810928']There's a lot of scrambling by minds to figure out what we are actually seeing in the models. This is evidenced by the word choices in these recent discussions. As an example, that business about holding its own as it cross the geopotential gradient into the event horizon of the trough is speculative, but it's based on idea that there will be a ton of shear impacting Sandy if/when she does get captured. Likewise, could/should an intenser Sandy dump latent heat into the downstream ridge, which would feed back on steering it inward, while clad, is also speculation - it does seem just as plausible.[/b] Actually for a rapidly deepening baroclinic low the cutting across height lines/thickness holds true; I'm not sure though with a hybrid system. name='CT Rain' timestamp='1351134307' post='1811004']interesting THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.[/b] [ name='OSUmetstud' timestamp='1351134551' post='1811016]For science or operational reasons? Or maybe a mix of both?[/b] I think more for operational reasons. Don't know if anyone read the NOAA report on Irene. There is a copy of it on the Albany NWSFO page and maybe other NWSFO pages. One of the things that was cited was the NHC's discontinuing the advisories and declaring Irene PT inland over New England and this more or less left the CHC high and dry. So one of the reccomends of this report was BETTER coordination with CHC. Now this is speculation on my part BUT it would stand to reason that if Sandy transformed into a severe hybrid type storm and if it did impact the ECUS, I would think that the NHC would probably continue to keep advisories going on the system. Also from this same report many local EM and FEMA offices complained about HPCs discussions, etc and basically told HPC to stop sending discussions their way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Worst case scenario for SNE is probably a GGEM solution...though something slightly north of a Euro solution would be horrendous for the south coast into LI sound (if its not bad enough already on the actual Euro scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Last night showed a weakening in the ridge over the Atlantic, and Sandy escaping east OTS. Is this weakening still there, or has the blocking become stronger to prevent an escape? If you were looking at the Op 00z GFS, yes there was a weakening in the Atl Ridge, but it appears based on the 06z as well the other globals and their Ensm, that the Ridge will in fact be stronger than what the 00z GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We have seen the Euro have a tendency to over-amplify coastal systems. At this point it's tough to go against the ensemble mean of the Globals with a landfall closer to the NYC/LI/SNE area. Looks like the Euro/GFS/GGEM are all in that general vicinity. "Nice" to see last nights UK agree with with its height forecast and steering as well as its ensemble members, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Worst case scenario for SNE is probably a GGEM solution...though something slightly north of a Euro solution would be horrendous for the south coast into LI sound (if its not bad enough already on the actual Euro scenario) the euro track is just awful for nyc. i never thought i'd see this potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 "Nice" to see last nights UK agree with with its height forecast and steering as well as its ensemble members, too. Do you happen to have any of the 00z Ukie maps to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you happen to have any of the 00z Ukie maps to post? Ukie was another terrible solution for the east coast of SNE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_0z/ukloop.html Andy's maps would probably show it better. There's a definite 200 mile spread or so amongst guidance right now...maybe even 300 miles. OP GFS still thinks Nova Scotia to downeast ME is the spot...but its lost support from the Ukie now on that. Euro ensembles are pretty far SW near NYC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 "Scary" update from HPC.. ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Worst case scenario for SNE is probably a GGEM solution...though something slightly north of a Euro solution would be horrendous for the south coast into LI sound (if its not bad enough already on the actual Euro scenario) At what point do you feel its prudent to start pulling the trigger on this potential? Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 sandy is looking at us again eyewall showing up pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you happen to have any of the 00z Ukie maps to post? Alas, not on my computer at work but at home on my "Tandy" LOL I'll post them in a bit if I can logon from work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 "Scary" update from HPC.. ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. HPC just looked at the operational GFS and said...."well we've had a good run, but I think its time we went our separate ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ukie was another terrible solution for the east coast of SNE http://www.meteo.psu..._0z/ukloop.html Andy's maps would probably show it better. There's a definite 200 mile spread or so amongst guidance right now...maybe even 300 miles. OP GFS still thinks Nova Scotia to downeast ME is the spot...but its lost support from the Ukie now on that. Euro ensembles are pretty far SW near NYC too. Yeah, that's why I asked. The PSU Ukie maps suck beyond the 72h panels. Alas, not on my computer at work but at home on my "Tandy" LOL I'll post them in a bit if I can logon from work.. Not a big deal if you don't have them handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Rains for this area could be pretty impressive. Could be some local enhancement due to isentropic lift on the cold side of the boundary and the eventual stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 the euro track is just awful for nyc. i never thought i'd see this potential Yes, NYC and LIS would be devastated by that surge. Not to mention the fact - astro high tides on Monday - Unusually large wind field (warm seclusion) - Unusually slow motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know its very early but what would be the estimated wind impact in E MA if a Euro/GGEM solution was to take place? The reason I ask is that I lost power for 3-days with Irene and I thought that storm was very weak in my area. Way too early to really get a good handle on impacts but they could be significant. Having this later in the season will help since a lot of the trees have lost their leaves. Also, if you recall, when we had Irene last year, we had a pretty wet month overall in August so soil moisture levels were up making it easier to take down trees. This month has not had nearly the amount of rain we had preceding Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you happen to have any of the 00z Ukie maps to post? from top to bottom 72,96,120,144 dashed lines 500hPa heights, solid lines PMSL 2 millibar intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I say this goes either over the tip of LI or over CC... In the future give some reasoning. Otherwise stuff like this will be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think you are under estimating this snow potential. Think April Fools Blizzard with 20-40"+ of 32F cement on 60mph winds. December 1992 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like NHC brings it into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gang, I opened up a general Storm banter thread where you can discuss all things outside the realm of the models or storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It’s funny how NHC guidance weakens this thing, while all the other guidance strengthens "it". That's the question, what is this thing. Right now it is clearly a hurricane - but as it flirts with asymmetries and commits more and more characteristics as it alters in time, it really makes a mockery of this whole idea about rules/boundaries on weather phenomenon. What is also highly unusual is to see the wind field (modeled) expand so dramatically while the core pressure drills for oil. The cyclone cannot be purely be tropical for that to happen – that is not how the structure of hurricanes go. The reason for it is complex. Mid latitude cyclones (the Norwegian Model Lows) possess an order of magnitude or more power than a hurricane – that might be hard to accept but think about it. The cyclone involved with a mid latitude disturbance has multiple layers of atmospheric mechanics involved, including, jet streams. Hurricanes don’t like jet streams; they get sheared to pieces by them. The amount of energy in a planetary jet stream dwarfs the most powerful hurricane by a large margin. Whereas extratropical cyclones are powered along by the differentiation and balancing requirements of planetary jet streams. Do the math. That conceptually means that any hurricane that wonders ‘too close’ is either going to: a) Get destroyed b ) Cooperate on some weird, exotic, rare level, and become something else. Usually that just means getting annihilated anyway, but then the planetary disturbance cannibalizes the TC entrails in the form of ingesting its latent heat that it delivered to higher latitudes. c) But there is a third even rarer solution … What we have here is an option c) In this case, the hurricane starts to evolve some asymmetries as discussed, and that more than less ‘sets it up’ to handshake with a deep closing low – at that point in time, Sandy has a ‘head start’ so to speak, and the thermal dynamics and mechanics of Sandy are thus less inharmonious wrt the cold trough’s influences; a partially converted Sandy's low pressure anomaly is free to finish mutating into the baroclinic wave expression – which means it then gets all of it mechanical power from jet structures and frontal thermodynamics from that amorphous point in time going forward. It’s very rare, very exotic, but it is really a fantastic and fascinating thing to see; it’s the atmosphere taking human rules and boundaries to the shed, if it works. Just be thrilled the models are smart enough to see that – wow. The models take a storm of warm core characteristic and slowly mutate it into a cold core characteristic, crossing the boundary between the two ends of the spectrum in a continuous, uninterrupted motion. Smooth as poop through a goose. Yet at no point in that observation can you put your pointer down and say, 'there, there is where it crossed over'; rather, we just end up there. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought this was a Sunday-Monday for NYC.. not Tuesday like NHC map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC forecast way west. Landfall near NYC just after 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like NHC brings it into NYC. That would be an ugly surge for LI sound and probably up to Narragansett/Buzzards Bay. This will probably have a pretty impressive wind field to the east as it gets "slung" NNW by the phasing PJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought this was a Sunday-Monday for NYC.. not Tuesday like NHC map shows. The timing is very uncertain. I'd lean to earlier... so the NHC forecast could be a full 12 hours too slow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.