dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't forget a little wobble here and there and a small change in trajectory to NW..it means a lot down the road. Those crazy west solutions are still a little skeptical (like into Delmarva), but NJ to Maine still possible. Might even narrow down NJ to CC? Yeah. You guys had a good phasing/PV discussion in Sam's thread. SNE isn't out of the woods wrt possible LF yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't forget now only any deviation in motion both now and as it turns NW will be key given the angle of the NE coastline....there is the chance that it remains very tropical in nature and sort of brushes off capture until a little later. This, too, will have a say. We have a while to go. We'll see if the 12z GFS backs up SW again. Would staying tropical alot later be attributed to Sandy's strength being stronger then originally forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 this run of the euro has stronger winds on the north side, probably because it moves NW after landfall instead of N on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would staying tropical alot later be attributed to Sandy's strength being stronger then originally forecasted? Well maybe a little bit, but it would have to due with convection and latent heat release continuing to cause a warm core. Baroclinic enhancement means divergence aloft too. Divergence aloft means more air lifts...more lift means more latent heat release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Timing is questionable kev. Monday? Could be earlier if we have phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 She's almost done with Cuba. IR sattelite has her looking a little less impressive than it did last night. Moving over the widest part of the island did not help. The waters N of Cuba will be just slightly less favorable so will be interesting to see the RI over the course of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well maybe a little bit, but it would have to due with convection and latent heat release continuing to cause a warm core. Baroclinic enhancement means divergence aloft too. Divergence aloft means more air lifts...more lift means more latent heat release. I would thing with the projected track of sandy over the warmer SST that that would be quite possible as HPC kind of keeps it a hurricane until at least the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 She's almost done with Cuba. IR sattelite has her looking a little less impressive than it did last night. Moving over the widest part of the island did not help. The waters N of Cuba will be just slightly less favorable so will be interesting to see the RI over the course of the morning. Pressure is up 7mb from the last advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would thing with the projected track of sandy over the warmer SST that that would be quite possible as HPC kind of keeps it a hurricane until at least the Carolinas Yeah I mean look how it stays warm with the cyclone phase diagrams. I know they may look a little overwhelming, but it shows the storm holding onto tropical characteristics until the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would say the threat is very real, but the location and timing of everything is crucial to whether or not it hits ME or MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ^^ Pressures are obviously up a bit, but flight level winds are near 125 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pressure was supposed to rise, not a shock as it crossed land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I mean look how it stays warm with the cyclone phase diagrams. I know they may look a little overwhelming, but it shows the storm holding onto tropical characteristics until the last day or so. Yeah, I see that, But would that also delay capture as well hence its further north landfall by staying tropical longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pressure was supposed to rise, not a shock as it crossed land. Yeah cuba had an effect on it as well as most larger landmasses would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 over 200 people reading a thread just after 8 am...awesome it looks like convection is starting to go up again on the west side, I wonder if we see RI if it would have to happen within the next few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Timing is questionable kev. Monday? Could be earlier if we have phase. thanks for answering.When my wx related posts get deleted for no reason it gets frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Derecho...RI... These are the terms I have come to hate this year. What happened to good old fashioned strengthening. MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT SE QUAD 11:53:00Z MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 11:57:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah, I see that, But would that also delay capture as well hence its further north landfall by staying tropical longer? Well we had a disco last night saying that it is possible, but with such strong blocking...sometimes you just gotta think models are onto something and it very well could happen without it going too far northeast. When I do west pacific weather, I noticed models always tend to get phase happy and the result is a further east low. However, there wasn't blocking like this either. So, you sort of have to take that into account with a 4SD block. When we mean capture, it basically means the storm gets caught up in the upper level flow, yet remains its own entity. It's at this point where it begins to phase and become a super mid latitude cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Derecho....RI... These are the terms I have come to hate this year. What happened to good old fashioned strengthening. New "Buzzwords" every year on here, Wait until the winter storm season sets in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Derecho....RI... These are the terms I have come to hate this year. What happened to good old fashioned strengthening. just saying...if it was going to undergo rapid inten. I would think it would have to be soon. Regular strengthening though nasomuch. I think last night qualified as RI right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Rapid intensification 42mb in 48hrs. The environment is not conducive for it anymore. Gradual strengthening? Absolutely. RI is very rare, please don't generalize the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 just saying...if it was going to undergo rapid inten. I would think it would have to be soon. Regular strengthening though nasomuch. I think last night qualified as RI right? For a very short period....possibly....but officially, I believe we would have needed a longer timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Rapid intensification 42mb in 48hrs. The environment is not conducive for it anymore. Gradual strengthening? Absolutely. RI is very rare, please don't generalize the term. Agree....and after an actual "RI' does occur, the other "buzz acronym" that becomes over-used is "ERC"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Best opportunity for restrengthening is in the next 12-24 hours. Beyond that time SST's start to drop and I suspect shear will also act as a hindrance. Question is what effect will intensity in the short term has on the long term intensity/track? Not not on intensity. Baro forces would have more effect I would believe on the intensity of the hybrid low. Stronger storm may phase later though/slighty increase risk for an escape (not that anything is showing an escape now beyond a few individual model members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 this run of the euro has stronger winds on the north side, probably because it moves NW after landfall instead of N on 12z also at 120 hrs, the vorticity maps show an enhanced area rotating around the northern side of the center and onshore new england..there is a nice wind maxima coming ashore with that I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 not trying to stir up any trouble here guys...just saying that of course with a storm like this we would have some strong winds (maybe even gusting to 70) but the "end world" scenario that many, not all, but many were excited for seems to be heading for the Jersey shore and that is not me trying to make people angry...it is just the most recent trends in the models. If the Euro is right...this would not be a doomsday scenario due to distance from landfall and orientation of coastline anywhere north of long island. If you're focused solely on winds...then sure, I'd say consensus right now has the NJ coast taking the brunt of the winds. But given the expansive wind field expected SNE could still expect a prolonged period of gusty easterly winds...exact magnitude TBD but enough to potentially be disruptive. But let's not forget other impacts as well. Significant rainfall still a threat if this thing strikes the MA. And if anything, coastal flooding would be just as bad if not worse with this thing making landfall south of the region...as we will still have an easterly fetch piling water into LI sound for an extended period of time. I agree members of the board love to hit the doomsday scenarios a bit too hard sometimes...but on the other hand its still too early to be downplaying the impact as well. We got at least another 36 hours before we can start nailing down any specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMASShole1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Last night showed a weakening in the ridge over the Atlantic, and Sandy escaping east OTS. Is this weakening still there, or has the blocking become stronger to prevent an escape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If you're focused solely on winds...then sure, I'd say consensus right now has the NJ coast taking the brunt of the winds. But given the expansive wind field expected SNE could still expect a prolonged period of gusty easterly winds...exact magnitude TBD but enough to potentially be disruptive. But let's not forget other impacts as well. Significant rainfall still a threat if this thing strikes the MA. And if anything, coastal flooding would be just as bad if not worse with this thing making landfall south of the region...as we will still have an easterly fetch piling water into LI sound for an extended period of time. I agree members of the board love to hit the doomsday scenarios a bit too hard sometimes...but on the other hand its still too early to be downplaying the impact as well. We got at least another 36 hours before we can start nailing down any specifics. The key point is wether the storm remains Tropical (aka Warm Core), becomes Extra Tropical (Cold Core) or a hybrid (Warm Core but with extra tropical charaterictics). Since if it is a hybrid could intensify the baroclinic zone which in turn could intensify the storm more. The hybrid senario would be the worse of all since it would have large wind feild like you said and would have a large area of flooding rains all around with the main focus to the west of the circulation. It surely is an intense storm and like you said many places will feel this sucker. Impact forecasting wouldn't be until the last like 36hrs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The more I look at how the Euro "does it" and how the GFS sends it out to sea... it seems to me it has a lot more to do with downstream ridging than upstream shortwave/trough. I agree Ryan the GFS has like many NWPs biases and systematic errors. One systematic error is that it tends to be slow in developing "blocks" and conversely tends to weaken blocks too fast. The Euro kept showing a ridiculous phase despite often changing the orientation of the shortwave and trough because its insane blocking made a phase inevitable. It builds the really strong ridging in between Sandy and the North Atlantic low, but the GFS does not, which allows Sandy to find a weakness. The trough on the GFS was stronger this run but that won't make a difference if Sandy somehow finds a weakness. I do not see anything on the GFS in terms of U/A flow that will shunt it off to the ENE-NE OTS. To put it into further perspective -- the strength of that ridge between Sandy and the North Atlantic low is very important as well. With that ridge there, the TC has no escape route so it literally meanders around until the Central US trough captures it. The 12z Euro was far more anomalous with that ridge than last nights 00z run, so the system slowed down and was captured at a lower latitude. I agree but the cutting off of the the trough will be slower over time IMO and later thus capture later and further north Even if there is a slight weakness how guaranteed is it for Sandy to actually utilize that weakness and slip off to the NE? See my above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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