HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My previous idea of a track from blend or weighted average now gives this result (adjusted to include UK) For 40% Euro 20% GEM 20% UK 20% GFS ... The predicted track is from 150 east of Norfolk to JFK to SYR min pres 950 For 33% Euro 22% each of the rest ... The predicted track is from 150 east of Norfolk to ISP to sw CT to SYR min pres 950 All this demonstrates is that the more you trust the Euro, the closer to NYC the track shifts away from an unweighted consensus which is probably eastern Long Island to central CT to SYR. Looks like the greatest clarity at the moment is the inland snowstorm followed by the heavy rain in NJ-ePA. Other details have greater uncertainties but the range of impacts is tremendous. For southern New England, the range is from catastrophic to minor (excluding low-prob swerving out to sea variants). Nice post. I'm feeling more confident the NW corner of Ma. will be looking at decent wind and rain but nothing historic in terms of impact. Good luck to those S of here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still miles away from the euro solution... in final result, yes. On Sunday AM, it's really close to a phase in a time/distance perspective at 500 mb. A slightly sharper trough dig on the GFS pulls it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nice post. I'm feeling more confident the NW corner of Ma. will be looking at decent wind and rain but nothing historic in terms of impact. Good luck to those S of here though. Agree. Hopefully we can avoid the 5-10" of rain scenario. And hopefully we can speed it up so it can stop raining prior to trick or treating. Not too hopeful on that score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are we still thinking a Sunday night/Monday deal? Seems like Euro is still too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think that besides the fact that we are still a few days out in time, I think there are many questions regards strength of the system and impacts because of how unusual this situation. i.e. we hardly have anything to compare it too wrt land impacts. Found a reference to Irene (1999) where it happened. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999). If that case the pressure dropped to 952 mb following warm seclusion. Here is Phase Diagram from Irene 1999. May be a better example that Hazel as Hazel was already on land prior to any transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are we still thinking a Sunday night/Monday deal? Seems like Euro is still too slow I'd add 24 hours to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 <?> Why the ? Its phased further upstream then near mid atlantic...it was dam close...and a huge step closer to euro then 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06z GEFS into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS mean takes in NYC into state college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06z GEFS into NYC. So the gfs and its clones are back to yesterday morning solutions? lol. well at least we're back to am east coast hit somewhere from the mid atl into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If this goes into NYC will the effects here not be that bad? I would love a track over the cape into Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 <?> Gfs mean into nyc...awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 looking more and more likely like a mid-atlantic hit now...will spare new england the worst. that is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gfs mean into nyc...awesome My question mark was the referral to the king comment, the GFS did very well with tropical cyclones this summer and many would say better than the Euro. Seemed like a silly comment to post in a very serious thread, are you welcoming damage and destruction to your town, seems as though you are very excited for a direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 looking more and more likely like a mid-atlantic hit now...will spare new england the worst. that is good No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No Really...maybe I am wrong but it seems that the last 48 hours has had the euro starting to focus impacts consistently south of NYC and the GFS which was out to sea is know trending much further SW. The fact that some model still hit NE does not mean much when they are correcting and trending towards a solution much different then they were on. I feel like the model still showing a NE hit will shift and reach consensus on a mid-atlantic hit....NYC into Albany...semi-similar to Irene which spared eastern new england anything but moderate winds and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really...maybe I am wrong but it seems that the last 48 hours has had the euro starting to focus impacts consistently south of NYC and the GFS which was out to sea is know trending much further SW. The fact that some model still hit NE does not mean much when they are correcting and trending towards a solution much different then they were on. I feel like the model still showing a NE hit will shift and reach consensus on a mid-atlantic hit....NYC into Albany...semi-similar to Irene which spared eastern new england anything but moderate winds and light rain. Despite that many have said they expect a recurve further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really...maybe I am wrong but it seems that the last 48 hours has had the euro starting to focus impacts consistently south of NYC and the GFS which was out to sea is know trending much further SW. The fact that some model still hit NE does not mean much when they are correcting and trending towards a solution much different then they were on. I feel like the model still showing a NE hit will shift and reach consensus on a mid-atlantic hit....NYC into Albany...semi-similar to Irene which spared eastern new england anything but moderate winds and light rain. Really? I was in eastern New England during Irene and had enough rain to flood the basement and winds that knocked down a big oak tree onto my neighbor's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 looking more and more likely like a mid-atlantic hit now...will spare new england the worst. that is good Lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So the gfs and its clones are back to yesterday morning solutions? lol. well at least we're back to am east coast hit somewhere from the mid atl into the northeast. We had a nice disco about ridging near the west side of the NATL low last night and you can see that the ridging at hr 54 is stronger on the 06z GFS as compared to hr 60 if the GFS, and also compares with hr 60 on the EC. SO now there is pretty good evidence of a hit on the EC. Obviously whether its PWM or WAL is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Really...maybe I am wrong but it seems that the last 48 hours has had the euro starting to focus impacts consistently south of NYC and the GFS which was out to sea is know trending much further SW. The fact that some model still hit NE does not mean much when they are correcting and trending towards a solution much different then they were on. I feel like the model still showing a NE hit will shift and reach consensus on a mid-atlantic hit....NYC into Albany...semi-similar to Irene which spared eastern new england anything but moderate winds and light rain. Biggest wind guest I saw in NE was in Barrington,RI 80-90mph if my memory is correct. If thats moderate i don't want to see anything more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If this goes into NYC will the effects here not be that bad? I would love a track over the cape into Boston. No, because the windfield is huge, see vortex95 post earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Biggest wind guest I saw in NE was in Barrington,RI 80-90mph if my memory is correct. If thats moderate i don't want to see anything more than that. not trying to stir up any trouble here guys...just saying that of course with a storm like this we would have some strong winds (maybe even gusting to 70) but the "end world" scenario that many, not all, but many were excited for seems to be heading for the Jersey shore and that is not me trying to make people angry...it is just the most recent trends in the models. If the Euro is right...this would not be a doomsday scenario due to distance from landfall and orientation of coastline anywhere north of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Track into NYC is a worst case scenario here, water getting piled up into western long island sound would make Irene and 92 look like a cakewalk. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 not trying to stir up any trouble here guys...just saying that of course with a storm like this we would have some strong winds (maybe even gusting to 70) but the "end world" scenario that many, not all, but many were excited for seems to be heading for the Jersey shore and that is not me trying to make people angry...it is just the most recent trends in the models. If the Euro is right...this would not be a doomsday scenario due to distance from landfall and orientation of coastline anywhere north of long island. No it would not if the euro is right, but would still be pretty bad here on the coast from a very large expanded wind field. I don't think people should have their hearts set on a worst case scenario anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Why can't we figure out the timing on this? Is it Sunday nite or Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't forget a little wobble here and there and a small change in trajectory to NW..it means a lot down the road. Those crazy west solutions are still a little skeptical (like into Delmarva), but NJ to Maine still possible. Might even narrow down NJ to CC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't forget a little wobble here and there and a small change in trajectory to NW..it means a lot down the road. Those crazy west solutions are still a little skeptical (like into Delmarva), but NJ to Maine still possible. Might even narrow down NJ to CC? Ensemble members have been pretty bullish in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ensemble members have been pretty bullish in that area Don't forget now only any deviation in motion both now and as it turns NW will be key given the angle of the NE coastline....there is the chance that it remains very tropical in nature and sort of brushes off capture until a little later. This, too, will have a say. We have a while to go. We'll see if the 12z GFS backs up SW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Don't forget a little wobble here and there and a small change in trajectory to NW..it means a lot down the road. Those crazy west solutions are still a little skeptical (like into Delmarva), but NJ to Maine still possible. Might even narrow down NJ to CC? We have seen the Euro have a tendency to over-amplify coastal systems. At this point it's tough to go against the ensemble mean of the Globals with a landfall closer to the NYC/LI/SNE area. Looks like the Euro/GFS/GGEM are all in that general vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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