BrianLaverty Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi is completely out of control on twitter... ranting about the NHC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The fl wind was 117kt? 102kt earlier corresponded to an 80kt hurricane "conservatively". http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2012&storm=Sandy&product=URNT12&who=AF&mission=05&show=10-25-050530-20-955e-77(117)-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 How soon till euro. Just woke up in bizarre fashion right out of sleep. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012102500!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi is completely out of control on twitter... ranting about the NHC... what else is new. XD he always does that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro's got a capture.. waiting to see where it reels it in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 BAM.. Ocean City, MD Hit.. 953mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro has the storm over the Delmarva at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro maintains poker face....still all in for epic Northeast US event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 road trip yeah, to western PA... that's like 3' of snow, nearly 24 hrs of likely blizzard conditions on 0z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still very intriguing to see the Euro being so consistent capturing this and bring it back west south of SNE...continues to really hit the phase in time. Just still nervous that this is still in the 96-120 HR timeframe...if the Euro is still suggesting this once it hits the 72-HR timeframe I'd begin to think this scenario will be a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My previous idea of a track from blend or weighted average now gives this result (adjusted to include UK) For 40% Euro 20% GEM 20% UK 20% GFS ... The predicted track is from 150 east of Norfolk to JFK to SYR min pres 950 For 33% Euro 22% each of the rest ... The predicted track is from 150 east of Norfolk to ISP to sw CT to SYR min pres 950 All this demonstrates is that the more you trust the Euro, the closer to NYC the track shifts away from an unweighted consensus which is probably eastern Long Island to central CT to SYR. Looks like the greatest clarity at the moment is the inland snowstorm followed by the heavy rain in NJ-ePA. Other details have greater uncertainties but the range of impacts is tremendous. For southern New England, the range is from catastrophic to minor (excluding low-prob swerving out to sea variants). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 While there still is some spread there is actually a decent cluster of members which have a sharp recurve to the west slamming into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With some models now showing Sandy making landfall well to the south of New England, and possibily meaning less of an impact to New England, something keep in mind, esp for wind potential... The Dec 11-12 1992 event...one of the worst Nor'easters on record to impact NEUS/Mid Atlantic. The storm central pressure got to down 985 mb near the Delmarva and stalled. We had a 1035 mb high over Quebec and it was bad for wind BOS to DCA. Maps here: http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1211.php http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1212.php Now the ECMWF shows a similar depth high to the NE-NW. Its position is further N and it isn't as strongly nosed down close from the NE like in Dec 92, *but*, do some math here. What was the absolute pressure difference then?...50 mb. What is will be the absolute pressure difference coming up...being a bit conservative at 960 mb for Sandy, and the 1035 mb high the ECMWF shows...75 mb! The high to the N is not as pressing for the Sandy event, but a 25 mb greater difference I would think would make it at least as bad as Dec 92 for wind/storm surge in New England, given the track stays to the S of Long island. So a Delmarva landfall might not make much difference. Problem is impact is going to be high regardless so any minimizing statements (i.e. not the worst case scenario) might not be a good idea right now. You have to look at it from degrees of bad. Even if it is not the absolute worst case scenario for New England, the worst case scenario is so bad, that getting a little less than that is still really bad relatively speaking. So if only a million people are w/o power in in southern New England vs. 1.5 million...see what I mean? When that many people lose power, it is a disaster no matter what. The infamous Blizzard of 78 in New England had 70-73 mb difference between the high to the N and the storm center to the S of New England. Here is my summary of day 1 of the Dec 1992 event from my historical wx files. We got hit hard in SNE obviously as well. 12/11/1992 One of the fiercest "nor'easters" this century in was progress across the New York City area and the Mid Atlantic region. A 985 millibar low stalled over the Delmarva Peninsula. This combined with a 1035 millibar high pressure over Quebec set up an enormous easterly pressure gradient which resulted in winds exceeding hurricane force in many places and record high tides. Ambrose Light Station just southeast of New York City recorded sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 93 mph. Wildwood Crest, New Jersey reported gusts to 90 mph and New Holland, Pennsylvania measured 82 mph gusts. In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the high winds broke a church steeple which fell onto and closed the Ben Franklin Bridge to New Jersey. Some of the worst coastal flooding ever associated with a nor'easter occurred as tides were pushed 3 to 6 feet above normal, resulting in widespread damage and beach erosion. LaGuardia Airport was closed due to flooding. The East River flooded Manhattan's FDR Drive, stranding dozens of motorists. Flooding at a Con Edison station shut down New York City's entire subway system for more than 3 hours. Tremendous snowfalls occurred at inland locations as the storm was a very slow mover. Piney Dam, Maryland was buried under 42 inches of snow to set a new state snowfall record for a single storm. Ogletown, Pennsylvania measured 36 inches of snow and Mount Storm, West Virginia recorded 32 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro ens? I read they are close to 12z yesterday ?Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 With some models now showing Sandy making landfall well to the south of New England, and possibily meaning less of an impact to New England, something keep in mind, esp for wind potential... The Dec 11-12 1992 event...one of the worst Nor'easters on record to impact NEUS/Mid Atlantic. The storm central pressure got to down 985 mb near the Delmarva and stalled. We had a 1035 mb high over Quebec and it was bad for wind BOS to DCA. Maps here: http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1211.php http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us1212.php Now the ECMWF shows a similar depth high to the NE-NW. Its position is further N and it isn't as strongly nosed down close from the NE like in Dec 92, *but*, do some math here. What was the absolute pressure difference then?...50 mb. What is will be the absolute pressure difference coming up...being a bit conservative at 960 mb for Sandy, and the 1035 mb high the ECMWF shows...75 mb! The high to the N is not as pressing for the Sandy event, but a 25 mb greater difference I would think would make it at least as bad as Dec 92 for wind/storm surge in New England, given the track stays to the S of Long island. So a Delmarva landfall might not make much difference. Problem is impact is going to be high regardless so any minimizing statements (i.e. not the worst case scenario) might not be a good idea right now. You have to look at it from degrees of bad. Even if it is not the absolute worst case scenario for New England, the worst case scenario is so bad, that getting a little less than that is still really bad relatively speaking. So if only a million people are w/o power in in southern New England vs. 1.5 million...see what I mean? When that many people lose power, it is a disaster no matter what. The infamous Blizzard of 78 in New England had 70-73 mb difference between the high to the N and the storm center to the S of New England. Here is my summary of day 1 of the Dec 1992 event from my historical wx files. We got hit hard in SNE obviously as well. 12/11/1992 One of the fiercest "nor'easters" this century in was progress across the New York City area and the Mid Atlantic region. A 985 millibar low stalled over the Delmarva Peninsula. This combined with a 1035 millibar high pressure over Quebec set up an enormous easterly pressure gradient which resulted in winds exceeding hurricane force in many places and record high tides. Ambrose Light Station just southeast of New York City recorded sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 93 mph. Wildwood Crest, New Jersey reported gusts to 90 mph and New Holland, Pennsylvania measured 82 mph gusts. In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the high winds broke a church steeple which fell onto and closed the Ben Franklin Bridge to New Jersey. Some of the worst coastal flooding ever associated with a nor'easter occurred as tides were pushed 3 to 6 feet above normal, resulting in widespread damage and beach erosion. LaGuardia Airport was closed due to flooding. The East River flooded Manhattan's FDR Drive, stranding dozens of motorists. Flooding at a Con Edison station shut down New York City's entire subway system for more than 3 hours. Tremendous snowfalls occurred at inland locations as the storm was a very slow mover. Piney Dam, Maryland was buried under 42 inches of snow to set a new state snowfall record for a single storm. Ogletown, Pennsylvania measured 36 inches of snow and Mount Storm, West Virginia recorded 32 inches. Great post. Many posts I've been reading are minimizing the damage the wind is going to cause should it come in over Jersey..though the Euro still seems too far sw with LF..but regardless..fantastic post and one i hope folks don't take lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If you blend all models together..you get a LF somewhere near LI moving NW..GGEm and Ukie are perfect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The NAM continues to look just like the Euro which I think is beginning to speak volumes more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I've been observing the models for a few days and I noticed that New England looks to get slammed. One person on my Facebook timeline is saying that we are to get hit by a major hurricane, although my current thinking is that a Noreaster seems more likely. However, this could go out to sea...although that doesn't seem likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Great post. Many posts I've been reading are minimizing the damage the wind is going to cause should it come in over Jersey..though the Euro still seems too far sw with LF..but regardless..fantastic post and one i hope folks don't take lightly the euro's wind fields remain very impressive with the strong winds expanding outward from the center dramatically. in fact, by sun PM (ooz mon) - with the storm still SE of Hatteras - 50 knot winds off the deck (925 mb) are already to Montauk and ACK. by monday morning that's up to 60 knots, by afternoon 75 knots. the question is how the atmosphere wants to behave. if the storm makes that euro hook, it *may* be tough to mix down the good stuff away from the coast. hard to say right now. but his post is spot on and something we've all mentioned that the wind field is enormous thanks to ET transition and surface HP up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ec ens came SW some...look like a hook into NYC region perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ec ens came SW some...look like a hook into NYC region perhaps. Yeah...looks like EWR-LGA or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gfs going to phase it this run...congrats euro...thanks for reminding us ur still king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Gfs going to phase it this run...congrats euro...thanks for reminding us ur still king similar (slight shift west, but not a phase yet) track through 96. just misses the phase for the Mid At. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 speculating...but looks like 6z gfs will hook back into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 similar (slight shift west, but not a phase yet) track through 96. just misses the phase for the Mid At. Thanks...please post as the run goes on....on my way to work..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 speculating...but looks like 6z gfs will hook back into SNE to put it in perspective...the heavy rain band that was over Providence, Springfield, and up into Vermont is down across Eastern PA and NJ. it's coming closer to the Euro camp. edit: looks like the track extrap'd would bend it back into Maine, maybe near Bangor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Bangor (or near there) landfall at 144/147. Tuesday night/Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like SW Maine coast around 150h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Still miles away from the euro solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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