OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There's a certain hilarity to the block itself allowing such an anomalous solution to happen while at the same time, the rex low itself could dampen heights enough to the east of the storm allowing an escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Are you making a statement about the GFS, or just attempting to read into something you probably have no idea about? I was making a statement about the GFS, but really I was making a comment regarding some people's view on the GFS vs. Euro. Stuff like "Okay, let's wait for the REAL model to come out" makes an assumption that the GFS is a worthless model, which is incorrect. As for having no clue what I'm talking about, you'd be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 LOL at the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 No, it wouldn't. We need to understand the logic of the probability spectrum, and that continuity issues puts bad consistency closer to the less likely end of the spectrum - that is especially true when the runs with the better continuity fit better with larger scale parametrics. As far as the 950 mb stuff, some are guided by emotion and that biases their determinism - shame on them. I would agree with you on this. A widely varying solution from run-to-run should be held to less stock than something that has been consistent. BUT, the difference between OTS and inland solutions are really not that far apart and are all about the blocking pattern. Slight adjustments in this seemingly small factor have huge consequences (like the Euro being inland and the GFS being OTS). That was the point I was trying to make. Sorry for the animosity, none was intended, but rather to prompt discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know what you mean though. It has its biases, but I guess I look at it from a point where we have such a crazy pattern going on, that 5+ days out and another run closer to the actual event start time...if it doesn't have a huge glaring issue with the solution..I can't really toss it. I can have my own suspicions about it and maybe disagree. If I ever said toss it, which I did last night, that's in part sarcasm - I merely mean it's less likely a veracious solution. I really don't think these way out than sort of back in, then back in, followed by way out then parabolic slamming into CAR Maine is helping the GFS cause. I can see why any solution at any given time can happen, and take it before congress, but sometimes the simpler explanation makes more sense, and the Euro and (jesus christ I'm going to say this) the NOGAP-like solutions intuitively fit this puzzle. Buuuut, I've been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 LOL at the GEM. Finger of God? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well you could say the 00z GEFS were west of the 18z GEFS, but still seems like rather significant spread. It still has that elongated look to the isobars, but the mean MSLP does end up over Cape Cod and eastern MA at hr 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Finger of God? Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I would agree with you on this. A widely varying solution from run-to-run should be held to less stock than something that has been consistent. BUT, the difference between OTS and inland solutions are really not that far apart and are all about the blocking pattern. Slight adjustments in this seemingly small factor have huge consequences (like the Euro being inland and the GFS being OTS). That was the point I was trying to make. Sorry for the animosity, none was intended, but rather to prompt discussion. No animosity was registered - its all good. Spirited debate is what this should be. But again, to your point ... if smaller perturbations are sending the GFS to wildly varying solutions, perhaps the model isn't handling things, so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Pretty much. I haven't seen it - god I have to crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Heavy heavy ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 METAR MUCU 250450Z 12064G89KT 0100 +SHRA SCT020 OVC060 24/23 Q0974 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There's a certain hilarity to the block itself allowing such an anomalous solution to happen while at the same time, the rex low itself could dampen heights enough to the east of the storm allowing an escape. It's a Three Stooges synopsis - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Heavy heavy ouch looks like Ernie as it made its way onto the Yucatan. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 She's a 110 mph and a Category 2 - like I said, not surprised. This is a RI cycle. Cuba is probably going to stop this from going well beyond guidance - it's beyond now, but I mean "well" beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 if they don't make it a major at landfall now, it's probably a good candidate for post-season upgrade given the strengthening trend and the earlier recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 When you have been burnt about 100 times by the GFS you tend to get a bit skeptical about it. How many times during the winter did I allow myself to be sucked in by the GFS only to have it bow to the Euro. Yeah it could be right. LOL I was making a statement about the GFS, but really I was making a comment regarding some people's view on the GFS vs. Euro. Stuff like "Okay, let's wait for the REAL model to come out" makes an assumption that the GFS is a worthless model, which is incorrect. As for having no clue what I'm talking about, you'd be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 She's a 110 mph and a Category 2 - like I said, not surprised. This is a RI cycle. Cuba is probably going to stop this from going well beyond guidance - it's beyond now, but I mean "well" beyond. I'm very curious about her intensity at landfall ... based on last recon and satellite presentation, 125mph seems entirely possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like it has tightened and intensified on final approach, in the hour since they upgraded to 110.... It really has a lovely presentation now on the IR loop. She's a 110 mph and a Category 2 - like I said, not surprised. This is a RI cycle. Cuba is probably going to stop this from going well beyond guidance - it's beyond now, but I mean "well" beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like it has tightened and intensified on final approach, in the hour since they upgraded to 110.... It really has a lovely presentation now on the IR loop. Prayers go out for those living there - god speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 btw, there was some speculation earlier that Sandy had become annular - no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 officially major...115mph at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 officially major...115mph at landfall Almost. NHC corrected it to 110 mph at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Has anyone heard how the UKMET has been looking the past few days? It's average accuracy is supposed to be fairly close to the GFS, but I haven't heard much talk about the Ukie this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Has anyone heard how the UKMET has been looking the past few days? It's average accuracy is supposed to be fairly close to the GFS, but I haven't heard much talk about the Ukie this week. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=042&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 How soon till euro. Just woke up in bizarre fashion right out of sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Doesn't make sense to me given 117kt at a FL of 700mb and the satellite presentation. Would think major easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Doesn't make sense to me given 117kt at a FL of 700mb and the satellite presentation. Would think major easily Which is why I kinda thought that statement was legit when I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 The fl wind was 117kt? 102kt earlier corresponded to an 80kt hurricane "conservatively". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://meteocentre.c...fixhh=1〈=en Thanks for the UKMET link... looks like that would be a pretty bad case for Boston and Long Island Sound. I guess GFS is on its own barring a serious change in the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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