free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 continuing the good juju? let's see what crazy solutions 0z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is the eastern part of Cuba flat or mountainous? Tolland, Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is the eastern part of Cuba flat or mountainous? Mountains, particularly along the southern coast, but.. .these are not higher than Jamaica's peaks and Sandy weathered those just fine so we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nice to have Japan on board now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is the eastern part of Cuba flat or mountainous? Way taller than Mount Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not sure if the cane models are useful..but 18z came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can you imagine the state of Kevin's mind if this thing didn't happen ? wow. abject terror - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 It is a good (or bad) thing that she's organizing while crossing Jamaica/Cuba. Had she peaked already, even with prime SSTs and peak season, this would be a storm that would probably lose part of it's organization within the core and never recover. Maybe the core will have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can you imagine the state of Kevin's mind if this thing didn't happen ? wow. abject terror - My fear is that a complete whiff will have people so hard up for something to track they'll be jumping on every d 10 threat from now until April with threads going to 1000 posts every time the models sniff a potential SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This thing is going to town: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It is a good (or bad) thing that she's organizing while crossing Jamaica/Cuba. Had she peaked already, even with prime SSTs and peak season, this would be a storm that would probably lose part of it's organization within the core and never recover. Maybe the core will have some staying power. I think Scott mentioned yesterday there is a lot of warm water/potential energy in the Cuban Archipelago to fuel Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think Scott mentioned yesterday there is a lot of warm water/potential energy in the Cuban Archipelago to fuel Sandy. Yes it is sitting in pure jet fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think Scott mentioned yesterday there is a lot of warm water/potential energy in the Cuban Archipelago to fuel Sandy. True, I am sure at some point mets and otw are/were all over that. there's so many posts I (and probably most) cannot read them all. Sandy looking rugged yet focused right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 He better not look at the 18z GEFS members. A big step away from what we all thought the GFS was doing earlier today. Can you imagine the state of Kevin's mind if this thing didn't happen ? wow. abject terror - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 He better not look at the 18z GEFS members. A big step away from what we all thought the GFS was doing earlier today. But mean still brings right into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 But mean still brings right into SNE yes it does the only thing we really fear is that the euro started a South trend with the delmarva hit on the 12z op, i don't wanna see that at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 But mean still brings right into SNE Not really. The GEFS are actually not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 He better not look at the 18z GEFS members. A big step away from what we all thought the GFS was doing earlier today. There are very few members now with a direct impact... many are way east with more of a secondary development that wraps in some of Sandy's moisture. The 18z GEFS members look worse than many of the prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not really. The GEFS are actually not good at all. I thought you said the GFS didn't make sense? Do more of the members look like they make sense to you in order to make the mean make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yes it does the only thing we really fear is that the euro started a trend with the delmarva hit on the 12z op, i don't wanna see that at 0z. The common concensus from many very, very good mets was that the Euro was too far Sw and the Euro ens mean was a better depiction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Euro from 10/21 still outdoes every run of every model since for the area. Todays run was bad but it was just Irene bad, not doomsday bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not really. The GEFS are actually not good at all. The good news , is that it's the gfs. And 18z. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 recon almost to the eye we should know soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought you said the GFS didn't make sense? Do more of the members look like they make sense to you in order to make the mean make sense? The op GFS I thought was funky and I tossed it. But the GEFS members are all over the place and took a major step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The members are still a little indecisive on what to do with Sandy as I think (and Ryan alluded to) they are seeing a weakness to help escape NE. This causes it to just miss the S/W allowing it to capture. I don't think the GFS is entirely correct in playing around with the blocking...so it looks suspicious to me. What Kevin is seeing as the "mean" is also a combo of low pressure developing along the inverted trough so it is important to not focus on the MSLP exact location. I mean you can see just from looking at the mean MSLP that we must have large spread. The contours have a lot of space around the lone isobar near the center. Something of interest to me, is the intensification of Sandy. Deep convection tends to want to drift towards weak spots in the upper level steering flow, so we need to watch for that. This is just one of many reasons why subtle things can effect the location hundreds of miles downstream in 5-6 days. Luckily, the blocking is progged to be so strong..that it is possible to have a margin of error...but that margin of error is not indefinite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The good news , is that it's the gfs. ? Maybe... but the GEFS have been steadily moving in the right direction even though the op was steadfast. The GEFS seems to have taken a giant leap backwards with what they have been doing. Could be a hiccup... not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is just one of many reasons why subtle things can effect the location hundreds of miles downstream in 5-6 days. Just 1mph of difference in forward speed is 120 miles over five days. Not preaching, but it's obviously crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Once again..it seems like we would be much better off if the GFS didn't exist. We have a general concensus with every other model and because so many worship it...it is given way too much credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sandy looks stronger than 85mph...let's see what recon finds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 OCT 2012 Time : 224500 UTC Lat : 18:30:33 N Lon : 76:22:38 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.4 / 956.8mb/ 99.6kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.