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East Coast Threat/Sandy Part III


free_man

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It is a good (or bad) thing that she's organizing while crossing Jamaica/Cuba. Had she peaked already, even with prime SSTs and peak season, this would be a storm that would probably lose part of it's organization within the core and never recover. Maybe the core will have some staying power.

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Can you imagine the state of Kevin's mind if this thing didn't happen ?

wow. abject terror -

My fear is that a complete whiff will have people so hard up for something to track they'll be jumping on every d 10 threat from now until April with threads going to 1000 posts every time the models sniff a potential SECS.

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It is a good (or bad) thing that she's organizing while crossing Jamaica/Cuba. Had she peaked already, even with prime SSTs and peak season, this would be a storm that would probably lose part of it's organization within the core and never recover. Maybe the core will have some staying power.

I think Scott mentioned yesterday there is a lot of warm water/potential energy in the Cuban Archipelago to fuel Sandy.

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I think Scott mentioned yesterday there is a lot of warm water/potential energy in the Cuban Archipelago to fuel Sandy.

True, I am sure at some point mets and otw are/were all over that. there's so many posts I (and probably most) cannot read them all. :)

Sandy looking rugged yet focused right now.

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He better not look at the 18z GEFS members. A big step away from what we all thought the GFS was doing earlier today.

There are very few members now with a direct impact... many are way east with more of a secondary development that wraps in some of Sandy's moisture.

The 18z GEFS members look worse than many of the prior runs.

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The members are still a little indecisive on what to do with Sandy as I think (and Ryan alluded to) they are seeing a weakness to help escape NE. This causes it to just miss the S/W allowing it to capture. I don't think the GFS is entirely correct in playing around with the blocking...so it looks suspicious to me. What Kevin is seeing as the "mean" is also a combo of low pressure developing along the inverted trough so it is important to not focus on the MSLP exact location. I mean you can see just from looking at the mean MSLP that we must have large spread. The contours have a lot of space around the lone isobar near the center.

Something of interest to me, is the intensification of Sandy. Deep convection tends to want to drift towards weak spots in the upper level steering flow, so we need to watch for that.

This is just one of many reasons why subtle things can effect the location hundreds of miles downstream in 5-6 days. Luckily, the blocking is progged to be so strong..that it is possible to have a margin of error...but that margin of error is not indefinite.

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