billgwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It looks like TPC has pushed their landfall way south....DE MD border? If NHC had an intermediate point between its 48-hr and 72-hr forecasts, you would see a southern NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Saw this in other thread....NHC will continue with TS and Hurricane watches and warnings : The NHC director just tweeted that they will continue tropical warnings up the coast even after the transition. I think Mount Holly needs to recognize. New Jerseyans won't bat an eye at a high wind warning, we get one after every cold front in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For anyone who wants to follow him, this is the Twitter feed for the NHC Director. https://twitter.com/NHCDirector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Saw this in other thread....NHC will continue with TS and Hurricane watches and warnings : I'm still hearing conflicting reports that confirm that they will not issue any products. Hopefully the media call that is going on now will clarify this policy. Personally, I think they should issue, but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm still hearing conflicting reports that confirm that they will not issue any products. Hopefully the media call that is going on now will clarify this policy. Personally, I think they should issue, but thats just me. I agree the NHC is making a semi-big mistake here handing it off if they truely are. People will just turn their backs on it and tune it out if they dont hear it clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18Z Tracks & Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm still hearing conflicting reports that confirm that they will not issue any products. Hopefully the media call that is going on now will clarify this policy. Personally, I think they should issue, but thats just me. If this is true, they need to get their acts in order. (not just NHC...whoever else is engaging the drama) No time for kindergarten stuff now. or at-least wait till after the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have noticed that the movement of Sandy is faster and somewhat farther west than what the operational GFS and ECMWF models have been indicating. This trend might indicate less of a full phase and a higher probability of steady filling over the next 24 to 36 hours (likely into the low 970s), followed by gradual deepening to about 955-960 mb at landfall. Such a trend would also indicate more of a threat to Cape May / N DE than to the New York area and thus reduce surge potential, perhaps by several feet, due to a much shallower-than-expected pressure and a faster movement--along with a more subtle WNW movement occurring after landfall rather than the due-W movement originally suggested, mainly due to the more westerly track at this time. I am already starting to suspect that this event may not be much worse than Irene in terms of surge and wind and that heavy precip output will be the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have noticed that the movement of Sandy is faster and somewhat farther west than what the operational GFS and ECMWF models have been indicating. This trend might indicate less of a full phase and a higher probability of steady filling over the next 24 to 36 hours (likely into the low 970s), followed by gradual deepening to about 955-960 mb at landfall. Such a trend would also indicate more of a threat to Cape May / N DE than to the New York area and thus reduce surge potential, perhaps by several feet, due to a much shallower-than-expected pressure and a faster movement--along with a more subtle WNW movement occurring after landfall rather than the due-W movement originally suggested, mainly due to the more westerly track at this time. I am already starting to suspect that this event may not be much worse than Irene in terms of surge and wind and that heavy QPF output will be the main threat. Farther west would probably indicate a bit more of a phase than less so. Also, and this is a general address to the board, QPF stands for quantitative precip forecast. So, when you say a system is going to produce a lot of QPF, you're saying it will produce a lot of quantitative precip forecast. There's no such thing as QPF in the atmosphere. Please call it precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Farther west would probably indicate a bit more of a phase than less so. Also, and this is a general address to the board, QPF stands for quantitative precip forecast. So, when you say a system is going to produce a lot of QPF, you're saying it will produce a lot of quantitative precip forecast. There's no such thing as QPF in the atmosphere. Please call it precip. Yes, I meant to say precipitation, but in this case I was alluding to the models’ QPF output, which does include precipitation. I will specify more clearly from now on and will amend my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I agree the NHC is making a semi-big mistake here handing it off if they truely are. People will just turn their backs on it and tune it out if they dont hear it clearly. I think regardless of the NHC involvement, the news is getting out there pretty clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18Z GFS - landfall north jersey@ 57 hours 948 mb a bit north of last run... near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18Z GFS - landfall north jersey@ 57 hours 948 mb a bit north of last run... near NYC Still initializing 12-13 mb too high with pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18Z GFS - landfall north jersey@ 57 hours 948 mb a bit north of last run... near NYC Its Toms River not near NYC at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBRIEN85 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I thought the 18z run of GFS was always "crap"; anyway I honestly dont know what to believe anymore as everything is so jacked up right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I understand the basic idea of what phasing is (and see it talked about with this storm a lot), but I am not sure what I should be looking for on the models. I mean I see the storm getting pulled into the trough on the 500mb maps for example. Is that what I am looking for? Additionally I know how you can have double or even a triple phaser, but again, what should I look for to see that on the maps? Thanks for whoever answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Phasing is the merging of two (or more) areas of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. In this case, look at the 500mb (H5) level: Here, Sandy (a cut-off low) has phased with the shortwave digging in the trough and has been enhanced with the interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Phasing is the merging of two (or more) areas of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere. In this case, look at the 500mb (H5) level: Here, Sandy (a cut-off low) has phased with the shortwave digging in the trough and has been enhanced with the interaction. Thanks for the response, very clear too! So would a triple phaser be the merger of the subtropical and polar jets with a storm system? At any rate the heights are incredibly low in that second image, what a storm! I wish I could be there to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks for the response, very clear too! So would a triple phaser be the merger of the subtropical and polar jets with a storm system? At any rate the heights are incredibly low in that second image, what a storm! I wish I could be there to see it. An example of a triple phaser was "Superstorm 1993," where a polar jet impulse, arctic jet impulse, and subtropical jet impulse phased together to create what was called the "Storm of the Century." Now we'll get back on topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 18Z GFDL has shifted north a bit, 947mb just south of NYC at about 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 But is it REALLY still a tropical hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So this map is basically tracking the transition from hurricane to ...eventually... extra tropical right? I am sorry to be asking so many questions but is there any significance to this beyond perhaps the more tropical it remains the stronger it probably will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 So this map is basically tracking the transition from hurricane to ...eventually... extra tropical right? I am sorry to be asking so many questions but is there any significance to this beyond perhaps the more tropical it remains the stronger it probably will be? It's Semi-Tropic now and weird when it hits land with a sub 960 MB low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 if this is in wrong place sorry for it......Question about NHC choosing to not issue tropical watch/warnings further north, however if you look at their 11pm update the forecast chart shows a 1% chance @48 hours and 12% chance @72 hours to dissapate, so is it or isn't it a "tropical" system can't have both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 if this is in wrong place sorry for it......Question about NHC choosing to not issue tropical watch/warnings further north, however if you look at their 11pm update the forecast chart shows a 1% chance @48 hours and 12% chance @72 hours to dissapate, so is it or isn't it a "tropical" system can't have both Are people really caring that much if it is tropical or not? It's a huge storm. That's about all that should matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i agree i could care less, however the mayor of nyc said today he isn't concerned because the surge isn't going to be bad since it isnt a "tropical" system just a strong norester and he may end up being right, i just think the general, (non readers here) would take it more seriously if stronger wording was used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 00z GFS is INSANE http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The 00z GFS is INSANE http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Definitely stronger than the earlier runs and absolutely worst place to landfall still. I think the operational showed 947mb at landfall, and its still initializing too high at least according to what I've heard. Makes you wonder what future model runs are going to show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Saw this in other thread....NHC will continue with TS and Hurricane watches and warnings : This is misinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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