Minnesota Meso Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Same here! Been collecting weather data for 16 years and whenever a weather system/event is news worthy, I save the article(s). For this storm I have been saving model maps and projections. - See how it all comes out in the end! Working to much to be able to do that, with all that you have saved I hope you do a post storm analysis, I would be particularly interested on what the forecast models predicted from say 7 days out to land fall. I would of course expect the ECMWF to be the most consistent with the track, followed closely by (A Big GULP) the NOGAPS. It will be interesting to see what model intensity verifies, like I said I like the NOGAPS, most models have been way to strong with the central low pressure as it comes ashore for the last couple of years. Case in point...Irene Edit: of course will all know the floods from Irene, sure the impact was huge, but if I remember right, the low pressure turned out to be a lot higher than model output, even 24hrs in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12Z Tracks & Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This storm is why people go into meteorology, just once during my lifetime could I put out a forecast for a storm of this magnitude. Forecasters looking at all the models runs are starting to say it was worth the expense, even if I'm not on TV lol. By the way I am a weather junkie, I could have become a met if it weren't for the heavy math and calculus that were involved in it. Its true. I am still in school, and done with the calculus by the way! But anyway if it weren't for my obligations here I'd be on the next plane out there to watch it up close. Its just what people like us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Current SLP readings from Sandy are considerably lower than the vast majority of the models. The HWRF is the only one I've seen that's spot on and it has a 935mb landfall via gradual deepening. It does have a landfall that's quite far north, though. Looks like the global's 950mb landfall values are underdone, given the current SLP of 959mb. If they're off on the pressure, they'll be significantly off on the winds as well. Uncharted territory indeed. This is why I got into meteorology. Mother Nature's ability to throw curveballs never ceases to amaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12Z WSI RPM wacky- landfall 945 way south southern Delmarva, snow into far north GA, band of snow in the Piedmont of NC by Mon night/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Current SLP readings from Sandy are considerably lower than the vast majority of the models. The HWRF is the only one I've seen that's spot on and it has a 935mb landfall via gradual deepening. It does have a landfall that's quite far north, though. Looks like the global's 950mb landfall values are underdone, given the current SLP of 959mb. If they're off on the pressure, they'll be significantly off on the winds as well. Uncharted territory indeed. This is why I got into meteorology. Mother Nature's ability to throw curveballs never ceases to amaze. It's hard to compare minimum pressures to the output of global models due to the coarse resolution, but I totally agree this is uncharted territory. Incredible that we have a system with a minimum pressure in the 950s and most of the deepening is still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's hard to compare minimum pressures to the output of global models due to the coarse resolution, but I totally agree this is uncharted territory. Incredible that we have a system with a minimum pressure in the 950s and most of the deepening is still to come. This is very true. But even among the high-res models, this still holds. None of the SREF members are really that close (>10mb off) and I still can't find any high-res models (again besides the HWRF) that are close. Even the normally overzealous GFDL is significantly higher (granted we're not dealing with a pure TC anymore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 12Z 4KM NAM nest 951 landfall in the ACY area 21Z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS 948 central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS 948 central Jersey. 936 on high res maps. 900mb winds of close to 100kts over much of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apoca-GFS now heads into central NJ with full tropical characteristics intact, 582 dm thickness accompanies 956 mb center to coast. Notice how far west the high thicknesses are pushed back on this run into ne PA and central NY. This would imply mega-heavy rainfalls pushing back to west all through Monday night and Tuesday, 65-70 F saturated air mass on wicked east winds into Long Island Sound, n NJ. Guessing this will mean GEM will show another incredible coastal solution (the RGEM takes a wide swing to 48h). Not as likely from my experience to keep as high a thickness pattern to the bitter end, which could mean even more explosive end game towards landfall. Public safety implication here is that GFS signals major disaster potential NJ, se NY and CT, rainfall high impacts for PA. This solution pushes the snowstorm concept to the southern margins of the precip wraparound albeit very heavy potential there. Frankly these are looking like thousand-year return maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Perhaps someone can answer this: seeing as how I'm currently located on the backend of this system, should I be concerned about accumulating snowfall? I know they are predicting some for the mountains above say 2,500 ft., while I sit at just over 1,000 ft. Immediately I'm thinking this is just going to be a cold rain; what would it take to cool the surface enough to drop the snow level down to say, sea level? Just an extremely deep area of pressure to wrap in cold air from the North? I just don't really know what to prepare for at this time. It doesn't seem like most mets out here know, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC is reversing and will continue to issue warnings/watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC is reversing and will continue to issue warnings/watches Thank God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC is reversing and will continue to issue warnings/watches I am hearing so many conflicting things on this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I am hearing so many conflicting things on this... ya and I re-read the tweet that this was based on and it seems it is being misunderstood. Dr. Knabb (NHC director) saying NO NHC watches/warnings because of confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Okay nevermind - delete this if desired. Apparently theres confusion over the NHC Knabb tweet which was the point of my post. I've deleted it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 15Z RPM and 12Z GFDL almost identical, landfall near Cape May/DE bay, 945 and 949MB respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 15Z RPM and 12Z GFDL almost identical, landfall near Cape May/DE bay, 945 and 949MB respectively. I guess its Locked and Loaded and has the general Landfall location pretty much pin pointed. NHC will be issuing the watches i take it soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess its Locked and Loaded and has the general Landfall location pretty much pin pointed. NHC will be issuing the watches i take it soon? NHC will not be issuing warnings for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I guess its Locked and Loaded and has the general Landfall location pretty much pin pointed. NHC will be issuing the watches i take it soon? From latest NHC discussion: NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I know it is stupid banter between us weather people . But if you read the tweet and go back to what the guy who brought up to Dr Knabb said hats off to him and the NHc to sticking with the NHC warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 confused... NHC is the one that issues tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.....does this mean they won't be issued at all for the mid-atlantic area ? (if so, that's ridiculous) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 check out the wave forecast for buoy 44017 just south of the western tip of LI. http://polar.ncep.no...ti_1.44017.bull the column titled HST is significant wave height. it is showing 10.24 meters or 33.5 feet. Edit: you can find other buoy info here: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-US_eastcoast-hs- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If we have winds above 74 mph, wouldn't that then exceed a gale? What is this going to be a severe gale warning or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro back north a tad, just south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It looks like TPC has pushed their landfall way south....DE MD border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro back north a tad, just south of NYC Seems like about 80% odds now landfall will be somewhere in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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