airmarci Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Surge forecasts based on operational GFS. Anyone know of any similar products based on the ECMWF? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_CON/SURGE_CON_96_HR.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The high and low tide measurements for NY Harbor and vicinity for Monday and Tuesday will be comparable, though slightly less than what was present for Irene. During Irene, I believe an annual maximum tide was present. I don't know if Monday afternoon's high tide or Tuesday's morning's high tide will be more impacting in this case. Based on the surge height and that it's still steeply rising at the end of the NWS forecast period, I wouldn't be very confident that the Irene water level measurement isn't exceeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is NE on this run. Hits Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wave heights approaching 30 feet at buoy 41010 off the coast of Florida. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41010&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is much further NE. For a while, but at the end it whips it due west, landfall in southern Jersey.GFDL is Delaware Bay, Canadian and GFS near NYC. Things are tightening up just a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 For a while, but at the end it whips it due west, landfall in southern Jersey. GFDL is Delaware Bay, Canadian and GFS near NYC. Things are tightening up just a bit While all of the model waffling was going on in the days leading up to Isaac's landfall on the coast, I found the EC ENS mean to be the most consistent and ultimately accurate guidance in targeting an area somewhere from SE LA to near MOB. Seems like the EC ENS has been targeting NJ to NYC pretty consistently with Sandy, and op EC is now trending that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HWRF southern Jersey, Ukie has shifted south, also Jersey. NHC track is a tad too far south probably, Jersey now looks to be in the cross hairs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18Z Tracks & Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Some eye candy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question for those who may be more knowledgeable about this sort of thing: At what point are the hurricane models no longer viable forecast tools in terms of a system undergoing extratropical transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question for anyone who might be involved in creating hurricane track graphics: I love how the "cone of uncertainty" reflects well the increasing uncertainty of the track/location with time, graphically, as in the NHC track graphics. However, those graphics don't convey any degree of uncertainty in time, as the system evolves, i.e., there's a single point for 24, 48, 72 hours, etc., when we all know that those "points" are really where the hurricane will be at 24 +/- 2 hrs, 48 +/- 4 hrs, 72 +/- 8 hrs, etc. (just using made up numbers to reflect the concept). I would think the NHC could include those +/- uncertainty estimates in time for the time points on the graphics pretty easily and I think they would help readers grasp, better, that the forecast has growing uncertainties in both location and time, as a function of time. Anyone ever thought much about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question for anyone who might be involved in creating hurricane track graphics: I love how the "cone of uncertainty" reflects well the increasing uncertainty of the track/location with time, graphically, as in the NHC track graphics. However, those graphics don't convey any degree of uncertainty in time, as the system evolves, i.e., there's a single point for 24, 48, 72 hours, etc., when we all know that those "points" are really where the hurricane will be at 24 +/- 2 hrs, 48 +/- 4 hrs, 72 +/- 8 hrs, etc. (just using made up numbers to reflect the concept). I would think the NHC could include those +/- uncertainty estimates in time for the time points on the graphics pretty easily and I think they would help readers grasp, better, that the forecast has growing uncertainties in both location and time, as a function of time. Anyone ever thought much about this? The timing aspect actually is taken into account, but not displayed very well on the NHC graphics. Each forecast point actually has a circle around it representing possible errors, and the cone is constructed simply by connecting the circles. That's why you see a semicircle at the end of the cone. EDIT: The wunderground graphics actually display it well: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The timing aspect actually is taken into account, but not displayed very well on the NHC graphics. Each forecast point actually has a circle around it representing possible errors, and the cone is constructed simply by connecting the circles. That's why you see a semicircle at the end of the cone. EDIT: The wunderground graphics actually display it well: http://www.wundergro...01218_5day.html Hadn't seen those - that works nicely. NHC doesn't have those on the main pages I look at - just the semicircle at the end of the cone. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FL winds at 650 millibars are fairly low, but the estimated central pressure has fallen to around 966 millibars. That indicates even though the satellite presentation indicates a strongly sheared, disorganized system. URNT12 KWBC 262327 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 26/22:50:05Z B. 27 deg 21 min N 077 deg 11 min W C. NA D. 45 kt E. 356 deg 51 nm F. 090 deg 48 kt G. 358 deg 88 nm H. EXTRAP 966 mb I. 6 C / 3656 m J. 14 C / 3658 m K. 8 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / NA O. 1 / 2 nm P. NOAA2 1218A SANDY OB 12 SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000FT MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 22:59:18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z SHIPS goes back and forth between tropical/subtropical in it's classification 00 and 06 hours tropical 12, 18, and 24 hours subtropical 36, 48, and 60 hours tropical 72 hours subtropical 84 hours and onward extratropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z GFS cyclone phase diagram keeps it asymmetric warm core until after landfall http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102618/3.phase1.zoom.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM coming in and FWIW it looks so far a very lot like the Euro with both the storm and the short wave that comes into the SE and causes the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM coming in and FWIW it looks so far a very lot like the Euro with both the storm and the short wave that comes into the SE and causes the phasing. And i thought i was overly tired and seeing things and i have been mentioning to others that the NAM is really Looking Euro'ish and is much more defined and looks much more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM 953mb landfall barely south of NYC in NJ 01-2Z Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM 953mb landfall barely south of NYC in NJ 01-2Z Tues Looks like Toms River,NJ then to Harrisburg,Pa, 8 inches of rain into Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS same basic pressure and area- just south of NYC. Big change is the speed, looks like NHC is too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Check out warm 570 dm 1000-500 mb thickness over center. Speaking of speed, didn't Dr. Hart in 1938 paper say almost all models fed best gueeses IC on 1938 were slower than actual storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 RGEM looked about 10% stronger at 48h than trend on 18z RGEM, has 540 dm upper low and 966 mb surface low at 34N 70W. Pretty sure that GGEM will be past this point any minute now but I'm noting this for continuity. The NL-QC block had a 582 dm centre near Goose Bay. Slight trend of what nobody wants to see, intensification of block. RGEM also looked more vigorous than the 18z version in this next 24-48h, steady height falls and northeast motion (unlike 18z when the cyclone stalled in last 12h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 You won't see me saying this very often when it comes to NOGAPS. The ECMWF and NOGAPS have been very consistent with the track of this storm. However as far the center of low pressure for this system I tend to lean towards the NOGAP model. NOGAP seems to want to go to sub 960mb not sub 950 like the Euro suggests. That may be splitting hairs as either solution would be problematic from Delmarva to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro low 950s, over Wildwood than into DE Bay. The RPM similar, but deeper. The GFDL, 940, central Jersey. The snow on the RPM is mind boggling, 48 inches in 24-36 hours by 72 and still pouring down at that time. This one is for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro maintains consistency on Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro low 950s, over Wildwood than into DE Bay. The RPM similar, but deeper. The GFDL, 940, central Jersey. The snow on the RPM is mind boggling, 48 inches in 24-36 hours by 72 and still pouring down at that time. This one is for the ages. Reminds me of the 384 hour GFS in late January on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This storm is why people go into meteorology, just once during my lifetime could I put out a forecast for a storm of this magnitude. Forecasters looking at all the models runs are starting to say it was worth the expense, even if I'm not on TV lol. By the way I am a weather junkie, I could have become a met if it weren't for the heavy math and calculus that were involved in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This storm is why people go into meteorology, just once during my lifetime could I put out a forecast for a storm of this magnitude. Forecasters looking at all the models runs are starting to say it was worth the expense, even if I'm not on TV lol. By the way I am a weather junkie, I could have become a met if it weren't for the heavy math and calculus that were involved in it. Same here! Been collecting weather data for 16 years and whenever a weather system/event is news worthy, I save the article(s). For this storm I have been saving model maps and projections. - See how it all comes out in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 La La La Lock it up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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