Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What is even more disturbing..the 18z GFS has 949mb over Lancaster PA 18z Tue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z GFS BUFKIT showing over 60knts of momentum transfer Tuesday afternoon and KCHO. Powerhouse wind event possible over a large area with that insane SLP gradient and even lower level height gradient. Valid 21z Tuesday at KCHO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 18Z GFS ~942 mb low landfalling about 50 miles South of NYC from the SE- don't see that everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is going to be way worse than Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18Z GFS ~942 mb low landfalling about 50 miles South of NYC from the SE- don't see that everyday. Here is a zoomed in shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Graphical GFS trend over the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 RPM is the Rapid Precision Model from WSI. It's a 4km model based off the WRF-ARW. To my own surprise it has been fairly accurate 48 hrs out from landfall. It nailed Isaac's timing and landfall 48 hours out even catching the little jog and stall it had after landfall (all in the 48 hr fct). Tim Heller has a POP blog about it for tropical storm Beryl. The RPM always seems to have a windshield wiper effect with each run when systems are too far out to sea but really zones in on landfall and becomes more consistent run to run within 48 hours of landfall. Research has shown that the better the definition of the initial vortex the WRF-ARW has the more the error in hurricane track and intensity forecast decreases. I assume this is why the RPM seems so useless less than 48 hours out unless the storm is hugging a coast where more sampling of the air is taking place thus more data to better define the vortex. Having said that and from experience watching the RPM's performance with tropical systems I believe Sandy is too far OTS as of right now to put much faith the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Graphical GFS trend over the last 4 runs. Trending towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's coorect with the windspeeds and wrong on the central pressure. Hurricane IKe was like 990MB when it produced 65kt windspeeds in Pittsburgh!! Gotta love downsloping. If this storm stalls, I bet the strongest winds will be in the downslope areas east of the mountains. A little bit of rain cooled air can even aid with the sinking motion hence windspeeds in those areas. Better analog Hazel was up to 970MB when it produced the famous 100mph gust at Battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Trending towards the EURO Yup and more importantly (at least in my opinion) is that the Euro has been consistently on the southern edge of the track envelope. Although my gut tells me that the latest small shifts in the Euro will be corrected by a slight northward trend. If I had to put money on it, I would say a NJ "landfall" ... which would be bad news for many with the magnitude of the CAD and the lower level geopotential height gradient expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is going to be way worse than Irene. That all depends if its 10 miles North of NYC or 10 miles south of NYC. I'd hate to be a media forecaster if models are showing it right over the city 24hrs out. Error on the side of caution,. but you also have to practice dodging rocks, because they might try to stone you to death if you forecast a 20ft storm surge and there's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 00z RGEM looking ominous with 48h position 31N 75W under 556 dm upper low ... 12h trend is NNE to that point (3N 1E) ... eyeballing the likely path from 48h to 96h will predict GGEM takes monster low N then NNW to New Jersey landfall. Just a guess from previous runs and trends, 940 mbs will be on the 84h e ACY. RGEM of course is now done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS back east a tad at 90 hours...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS way east at 108 hr ..still south of ACK ..but coming west now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS back north, 950mb just SE of the eastern tip of LI at 114, moving NW. This would be bad for LI sound and southern New England coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS ensembles close to the Op. Ukie close to the GFS. Now we wait for the Euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro slinging trop storm winds on the fl coast before making the turn ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sanity about to be restored (or insanity) the Euro looks to be holding serve, the GFDL is only a hair farther north than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro holds serve, landfall around ches. bay as a strong storm. then heads west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is any model or ensemble member showing rapid acceleration? In the back of my mind is the suspicion that this is like a 5% risk, especially seeing that solutions are once again diverging rather than converging. Rapid acceleration without much intensification would be a fairly benign solution, but with a pressure drop below 955, another form of high impact with the bad timing aspect added. Please note before I get flamed again, 5% risk disclaimer. By rapid acceleration I would be implying Long Island landfall before mid-day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I am baffled as to why the 5 AM NHC cone did not adjust a bit north at landfall. The 0z GFS, GGEM and GEFS shifted east in a considerable way. Only the Euro held steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I am baffled as to why the 5 AM NHC cone did not adjust a bit north at landfall. The 0z GFS, GGEM and GEFS shifted east in a considerable way. Only the Euro held steady. What the euro ens do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 What the euro ens do? the mean shows the storm backing into NJ. not sure of the individual spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 I know Euro is historically the superior model, but I don't know why the GFS isn't give some more weight than it is(by NHC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The high and low tide measurements for NY Harbor and vicinity for Monday and Tuesday will be comparable, though slightly less than what was present for Irene. During Irene, I believe an annual maximum tide was present. I don't know if Monday afternoon's high tide or Tuesday's morning's high tide will be more impacting in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12Z Tracks & Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Are we looking at an even more southern solution now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The system of storms over eastern TX and southern AR are they part of the front or not? If not will that form into another southern low? Or effect the whole pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Are we looking at an even more southern solution now? The NHC has the track more to the south pretty much into Delaware. When the storm actually turns NW towards the east coast will be determined with the phasing with the upper level disturbance. Depending on when this happens should ultimately dictate the landfall area. A phase that occurs sooner will result in a southern landfall. It is very important to note that the size of this storm will cause the impacts to be felt far from the center so the exact landfall location should not be the primary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The system of storms over eastern TX and southern AR are they part of the front or not? If not will that form into another southern low? Or effect the whole pattern? Yes, that is the leading edge of the front. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_surface_analysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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