Drz1111 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it would be beneficial to everyone when someone posts model ouput if the following information is also provided. 1) MB at landfall 2) Winds at landfall (MPH) sustained and gusts 3) Amount of Rainfall with an x amount of time around landfall. I think there are a lot of misconceptions on this board that because that low is at x millibars the winds must be at x mph or a Cat x Hurricane, etc. Thoughts? Tom Smykowski: It was a "Jump to Conclusions" mat. You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor... and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO. Michael Bolton: That's the worst idea I've ever heard in my life, Tom. Samir: Yes, this is horrible, this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Items 2 and 3 won't be anything more than educated guesses at this point. 3 especially. I rather have educated ones than some of the uneducated ones ive seen on here in the past day. Im sure the models output wind speeds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is this thread for posterity's sake in terms of posting the many AFD's, extended forecasts, etc. for ALL NWS offices, local and national? Because I have been surfing around many of the NWS local websites and ALOT of the discussions are WELL worth saving. eg from NWS BUF: HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES...ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE EAST COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY TURN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OR DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX STORM...WITH THE TRACK DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE LOCAL IMPACTS HERE IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING...RISK FOR STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN THE RISK FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STATEMENTS. How many times are you going to see heavy wet snow and hurricane in the same LOCAL hazardous outlook statement??? There are many more eye popping releases across the country....it'd be nice to have them all in one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I rather have educated ones than some of the uneducated ones ive seen on here in the past day. Im sure the models output wind speeds though. Determing wind gusts at any particular location from a model is next to impossible. Take for instance Hurricane Ernesto from 2006. Went well west into PA and became extratropical, but Somers Point NJ still had guts to 80mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is this thread for posterity's sake in terms of posting the many AFD's, extended forecasts, etc. for ALL NWS offices, local and national? Because I have been surfing around many of the NWS local websites and ALOT of the discussions are WELL worth saving. How many times are you going to see heavy wet snow and hurricane in the same LOCAL hazardous outlook statement??? Even LMK has had good AFDs on the storm despite how far away the OV is from the main impact area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I rather have educated ones than some of the uneducated ones ive seen on here in the past day. Im sure the models output wind speeds though. That may be the case in the sub forum threads. The main page model thread has been rather benign and clean to this point and we would like to keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I rather have educated ones than some of the uneducated ones ive seen on here in the past day. Im sure the models output wind speeds though. If you read as many red tag posts as possible on this board, your questions above will be answered. I've seen many venture very reasonable guesses with great thought behind them. I personally do not read guesses by 98% of the amateurs on here, and neither should you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is this thread for posterity's sake in terms of posting the many AFD's, extended forecasts, etc. for ALL NWS offices, local and national? Because I have been surfing around many of the NWS local websites and ALOT of the discussions are WELL worth saving. eg from NWS BUF: HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES...ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE EAST COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY TURN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OR DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX STORM...WITH THE TRACK DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE LOCAL IMPACTS HERE IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO COULD INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING...RISK FOR STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN THE RISK FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STATEMENTS. How many times are you going to see heavy wet snow and hurricane in the same LOCAL hazardous outlook statement??? There are many more eye popping releases across the country....it'd be nice to have them all in one thread. With LEK leading the way, I would post this from the Mount Holly briefing early today. Very sobering in several respects (wind, rain, flooding, coastal effects): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL 929 mb into NJ moving straight west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro at 48 hours... Hurricane force gusts or winds may be getting awfully close to the east coast of Florida. NHC may need to at least issue a Hurricane Watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That may be the case in the sub forum threads. The main page model thread has been rather benign and clean to this point and we would like to keep it that way. Agreed, and I apologize in advance if I offended anyone. I guess my concern is based indeed on some of the jobberish in the sub forums. As an old new poster here, I think its best to keep my head above the water in the more professional threads here, like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro, a tad south of previous at 72. Also, from the 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 lol 935 mb at 72 hours. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro just slower, still a landfall in the Delaware Bay area, about 956mb. Also, one east outlier still, the HWRF is way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro just slower, still a landfall in the Delaware Bay area, about 956mb. Also, one east outlier still, the HWRF is way OTS. What happens between 96 hours (931 MB) and where it makes landfall that weakens it? I can't see the in-between hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro, a tad south of previous at 72. Also, from the 12Z GFS: Mind a two or three line layman's explanation? I understand the differences between cold/warm core, but how that chart is plotted confuses me somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What happens between 96 hours (931 MB) and where it makes landfall that weakens it? I can't see the in-between hours. My maps from WSI must be lower res- I do not see pressures ever as low as 931. What source do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My maps from WSI must be lower res- I do not see pressures ever as low as 931. What source do you use? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What happens between 96 hours (931 MB) and where it makes landfall that weakens it? I can't see the in-between hours. 928mb Sern Delmarva peninsula (Chincoteague/Asateague islands) around 108h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any mets want to share what the RPM is doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My maps from WSI must be lower res- I do not see pressures ever as low as 931. What source do you use? In house models. 928mb Sern Delmarva peninsula (Chincoteague/Asateague islands) around 108h Ridiculous. Any mets want to share what the RPM is doing? RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Significant shift west in the GFS/EnKF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Any mets want to share what the RPM is doing? I'm not a met but I have access, and it looks pretty far east. More than the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The RPM is quite far east, but it is not a good model beyond about 24 hours. (this is a WSI version of the WRF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gfs west of 12z run through 102..hugging 70...2-2.25 degrees long west of 12z same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gfs west of 12z run through 102..hugging 70...2-2.25 degrees long west of 12z same time commence capture...wnw turn at 108...NJ likely here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 940ish into belmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gfs west of 12z run through 102..hugging 70...2-2.25 degrees long west of 12z same time The GFS' initialisation of Sandy 20 mb higher than actual intensity is really starting to annoy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 commence capture...wnw turn at 108...NJ likely here 942 ish into Toms River NJ. see if we get other right outliers to trend left here and narrow down cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The GFS' initialisation of Sandy 20 mb higher than actual intensity is really starting to annoy me. At least its not as bad as Dean/Felix in 07 I still just dont believe these min SLPs I am seeing. I am tending to fade the sub 960 at landfall, just because I have never seen anything like that before. Given the unprecedented coupling of the jet streaks, I guess it is possible, but I would rather lean the other way for now. Still, that is no reason to downplay the magnitude of what we are seeing. I swear the Euro had Irene as 920mb into DC at one point. Granted, the number of model solutions showing sub 955 is just disturbing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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