Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS ensemble farther west, BOS area landfall of a hybrid system. GGEM stuck at 84, but it looks like it shifted west. EDIT: GGEM 950mb landfall eastern tip of LI, moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't know which thread is the banter thread and which one is for the pro fore casters and experienced amateurs, but I just found this out from Paul Douglas's blog.. All NWS stations will now be releasing weather balloons at 6hr interval's for the 1st time ever!!!! link to his blog...the info is about half way down. http://pauldouglasweather.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I don't know which thread is the banter thread and which one is for the pro fore casters and experienced amateurs, but I just found this out from Paul Douglas's blog.. All NWS stations will now be releasing weather balloons at 6hr interval's for the 1st time ever!!!! link to his blog...the info is about half way down. http://pauldouglaswe...r.blogspot.com/ Yeah I think some of us saw that! I think there needs to be some special balloons releases up in the Canadian Maritimes to get a better idea of the heights up that way. To determine whether there will an escape route open or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 EURO holds mouth of Chesapeake Bay in its sights, 200 miles west of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 just saw the canadian global run myself. running it in parallel to Long Island from east to west? damn, i'd like to know what it's smoking. if this storm did that, NYC might see an interesting flooding problem coming up Long Island Sound. would I even want to see the wave model on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yeah I think some of us saw that! I think there needs to be some special balloons releases up in the Canadian Maritimes to get a better idea of the heights up that way. To determine whether there will an escape route open or not. let me be Frank...I agree. I also think that Sandy could ruin several of the winter forecast that have been posted, looks like sea surface temps are going to crash along the eastern seaboard if Sandy doesn't go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro brings it in over the Del Varva (sp) area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergollotto Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro hits Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 UKMET 960 or so, somewhere near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 let me be Frank...I agree. I also think that Sandy could ruin several of the winter forecast that have been posted, looks like sea surface temps are going to crash along the eastern seaboard if Sandy doesn't go out to sea. Something to ponder. EURO shows snow in the high country of WVA - plenty of it too! Storm surge into the Delaware would be awful in this 0z EURO scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL 937 landfall near the Euro position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL 937 landfall near the Euro position 114 is so wrong... geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ok, at this point in time I have to go with the higher resolution ECMWF , it picks up the idea that Sandy will become non tropical as it approaches the eastern sea board IMO. It should allow to slip under the eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro hits Cape May GFDL does as well as like 937mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Frankenstorm -- I like it! ====================== PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND UNSETTLED. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z Tracks & Intensity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 at the NAM solution. Seems like since it's too weak and not capturing the storm well as a whole, it's creating pressure falls near it's strongest convective bands well away from the circulation center, allowing the low to follow the convection in a loop around the storm's actual center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's a large change from 48 hours ago as I recall. However, the spread at days 4 and 5 are very large. Do you know how they calculate the ellipses?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS just phases at 114 and looks to be headed towards SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 That's a large change from 48 hours ago as I recall. However, the spread at days 4 and 5 are very large. Do you know how they calculate the ellipses?? From the HFIP website: "Description of ellipse: The colored ellipses indicate the region that 90% of the ensemble member tracks occupy for a given valid time. This can be interpreted as the region the tropical cyclone will be in with 90% confidence based on that particular ensemble forecast. Tropical cyclone tracks from each individual ensemble member are shown in gray. The mean track position is plotted with the heavy black line. Colors correspond the valid forecast time, in days since initialization, with the colored number indicating the number of days. " A lot of good data on their website for those interested. http://www.hfip.org/products/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS 945 Long Island at 00Z Wed. Ruh Roh Scooby, we have Superstorm 12...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS 945 Long Island at 00Z Wed. Ruh Roh Scooby, we have Superstorm 12...... I'm just glad the GFS has finally joined reality with the rest of the models. Now where on the coast can we look for a landfall? I'd like to wait for the Euro, but anywhere between Cape May and Montauk looks at high risk at the moment. (I forgot we split the threads :\) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbbballkid37 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://docs.lib.noaa...082-08-0228.pdf Going back, Sandy looks eerily similar to Carol (1954). Yes, Carol was an August storm, but this [outdated, but somewhat relevant] article argues that Carol's track had more to do with the unusual long-wave pattern than the normal seasonal climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z GGEM direct hit NYC 114 hours 947mb. The Cyclone phase diagram from the 0Z run had the storm tropical until just about landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z GGEM direct hit NYC 114 hours 947mb. The Cyclone phase diagram from the 0Z run had the storm tropical until just about landfall. More like toms river then NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS ensembles also near NYC. Anxiously awaiting the Euro and GFDL/HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it would be beneficial to everyone when someone posts model ouput if the following information is also provided. 1) MB at landfall 2) Winds at landfall (MPH) sustained and gusts 3) Amount of Rainfall with an x amount of time around landfall. I think there are a lot of misconceptions on this board that because that low is at x millibars the winds must be at x mph or a Cat x Hurricane, etc. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS ensembles also near NYC. Anxiously awaiting the Euro and GFDL/HWRF Decent number of members are around Delmarva, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think it would be beneficial to everyone when someone posts model ouput if the following information is also provided. 1) MB at landfall 2) Winds at landfall (MPH) sustained and gusts 3) Amount of Rainfall with an x amount of time around landfall. I think there are a lot of misconceptions on this board that because that low is at x millibars the winds must be at x mph or a Cat x Hurricane, etc. Thoughts? Items 2 and 3 won't be anything more than educated guesses at this point. 3 especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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