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Hurricane Sandy - Model and Medium Range Discussion


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Holy crap

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
968mb (Surface) 270° (from the W) 74 knots (85 mph)
966mb 270° (from the W) 73 knots (84 mph)
962mb 265° (from the W) 85 knots (98 mph)
960mb 270° (from the W) 88 knots (101 mph)
932mb 275° (from the W) 90 knots (104 mph)
925mb 280° (from the W) 98 knots (113 mph)
917mb 275° (from the W) 97 knots (112 mph)
907mb 275° (from the W) 101 knots (116 mph)
859mb 275° (from the W) 100 knots (115 mph)
850mb 275° (from the W) 88 knots (101 mph)
820mb 270° (from the W) 73 knots (84 mph)
803mb 275° (from the W) 46 knots (53 mph)
697mb 260° (from the W) 29 knots (33 mph)

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That is a lot of snow. I see the local NWS is saying 1-2 feet so I am guessing this is somewhat overdone.

NWS is actually forecasting up to 3 feet, maybe more, in parts of the higher elevations of wv. Combine that with 60mph plus winds they are forecasting and the fact it will be a heavy wet snow, you can't help to believe damage will be severe.

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NWS is actually forecasting up to 3 feet, maybe more, in parts of the higher elevations of wv. Combine that with 60mph plus winds they are forecasting and the fact it will be a heavy wet snow, you can't help to believe damage will be severe.

I must have missed something then. Either way it looks to be quite a bit of wet snow, and maybe even briefly rain as the storm pushes inland. That much wet snow, with strong winds is as you say, troubling.

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BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL

HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W

ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

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Time: 15:03:00Z Coordinates: 37.6667N 71.9W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,596 meters (~ 8,517 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 939.4 mb (~ 27.74 inHg) D-value: - Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 295° at 8 knots (From the WNW at ~ 9.2 mph) Air Temp: 13.5°C (~ 56.3°F) Dew Pt: 12.4°C (~ 54.3°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr) (*) Denotes suspect data

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I must have missed something then. Either way it looks to be quite a bit of wet snow, and maybe even briefly rain as the storm pushes inland. That much wet snow, with strong winds is as you say, troubling.

With the amount of moisture in the snow - lot of compacting. I would imagine once it gets above a certain depth that you will see quite a bit of compacting. We had a storm back in the 1990s (southern IL) that produced about 8-10" of wet snow. It compacted after a few hours down to 5-6 inches. Not exactly sure how one figures that into the equation. We shall see.

I would be concerned about roof collapses. Lot of weight.

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