Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow CT folks .. Listen to Joe Furey on 1080 this morning. Really hitting things hard, very dire which for him to do Is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Henry M from Accuweather is siding with the GFS now and sending Sandy OTS,a new low takes over with impacts to the coast.??? If the GFS has been so unreliable and the Euro so consistent..why the GFS Henry..geez...I'm confused now..But hey I'm just another weather weenie,junkie.. Ahhh... henry m... easily one of the worst around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think there are a lot of hobbyists and mets that have forgotten we're still 120+ hours out. That's a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So Henry M is saying a NBD storm. That's gotta be a first. He makes a flurry into a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think there are a lot of hobbyists and mets that have forgotten we're still 120+ hours out. That's a very long time. yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think there are a lot of hobbyists and mets that have forgotten we're still 120+ hours out. That's a very long time. That's like an eternity. Lots can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's like an eternity. Lots can still happen. Yeah I don't really get it. There's a lot of hype coming from places that even typically are a bit more conservative. Even a "hit" from a storm that backs into SNE may not be any worse than a typical fall nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 06z Ensmbles slide it west just south of MVY into LI, but again...some models develop a separate baroclinic low which is still possible..although could be very strong. Just looking at the 06 mean now and you get that feel from the look of how Sandy starts to recurve only to be pulled back in by the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. Call me a weenie but I am beginning to fell a scenario like the Euro is becoming more plausible, just further up the coast than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think there are a lot of hobbyists and mets that have forgotten we're still 120+ hours out. That's a very long time. Other folks that keep posting what every media outlet is saying just should keep repeating the last part of your statement over and over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I don't really get it. There's a lot of hype coming from places that even typically are a bit more conservative. Even a "hit" from a storm that backs into SNE may not be any worse than a typical fall nor'easter. If it still has tropical characteristics, strong wins SW. But like Phil said, all depends on the core of the storm and any baroclinic enhancement. I think the threat is heightened for a strong storm, about all you can say at this point. Strong storm doesn't mean '38 redux either. If the 12z runs come and hit it harder...than more confidence of siggy impact, but really it will take until later tomorrow or Friday morning to truly sample all the players. People need to remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Other folks that keep posting what every media outlet is saying just should keep repeating the last part of your statement over and over Agreed. I don't think many put too much emphasis on long-term forecasts. Most time is spent on the 1-2 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I don't really get it. There's a lot of hype coming from places that even typically are a bit more conservative. Even a "hit" from a storm that backs into SNE may not be any worse than a typical fall nor'easter. this is a good point too. the really bad scenarios are out there, and possible of course if something like some of those crazy euro/ggem runs were to verify, but there are so many possibilities to envision that are less severe and would probably be more of a prolonged coastal flood threat or hvy rain situation. way too early to tell much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I don't really get it. There's a lot of hype coming from places that even typically are a bit more conservative. Even a "hit" from a storm that backs into SNE may not be any worse than a typical fall nor'easter. If it still has tropical characteristics, strong wins SW. But like Phil said, all depends on the core of the storm and any baroclinic enhancement. I think the threat is heightened for a strong storm, about all you can say at this point. Strong storm doesn't mean '38 redux either. If the 12z runs come and hit it harder...than more confidence of siggy impact, but really it will take until later tomorrow or Friday morning to truly sample all the players. People need to remember that. This^^^^ Man the hype is spreading like wildfire though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just looking at the 06 mean now and you get that feel from the look of how Sandy starts to recurve only to be pulled back in by the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. Call me a weenie but I am beginning to fell a scenario like the Euro is becoming more plausible, just further up the coast than the 00z run. Could be something that is east of the Cape still..or nor'easter that develops and stalls....a few scenarios here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I gotta say and agree with the fact its only Wednesday,and there will be many more model runs to go through..but its rather ominous to see a 933mb low ,EURO south of New England..the GFS is clearly the outlier here..the Euro has been consistent for the past several runs,so many varibles,so many things to watch here for something like the Euro to happen..I'm not a met,just a weather weenie of historic magnitude so don't shoot my thoughts down here..Hopefully this will be nailed down by Friday,so everyone including me can hit the panic button or just go back to reading 50 shades of insane weather models. Thanks Craig http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Henry M from Accuweather is siding with the GFS now and sending Sandy OTS,a new low takes over with impacts to the coast.??? If the GFS has been so unreliable and the Euro so consistent..why the GFS Henry..geez...I'm confused now..But hey I'm just another weather weenie,junkie.. FWIW, last night's GGEM is doing the same thing, taking Sandy OTS with a secondary development to the west that pushes into SNE. I don't know if we can discount that as a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Could be something that is east of the Cape still..or nor'easter that develops and stalls....a few scenarios here. Perfect storm ish type where the coast is lashed with winds and tides , inland is windy but NBD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 No way you match a 38' I think just because of the lack of forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 this is a good point too. the really bad scenarios are out there, and possible of course if something like some of those crazy euro/ggem runs were to verify, but there are so many possibilities to envision that are less severe and would probably be more of a prolonged coastal flood threat or hvy rain situation. way too early to tell much. This^^^^ Man the hype is spreading like wildfire though. Yes we know there's a storm 'o doom scenario out there but there is a whole continuum of solutions that range from a some heavier rain as tropical moisture gets involved with a low developing back here in NE to a hybrid that sits and spins east of the Cape. The direct hurricane hit is most unlikely... the vast majority of solutions that bring rain/wind would be far from historic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, last night's GGEM is doing the same thing, taking Sandy OTS with a secondary development to the west that pushes into SNE. I don't know if we can discount that as a possible outcome. I think that's actually a really reasonable soln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If it still has tropical characteristics, strong wins SW. But like Phil said, all depends on the core of the storm and any baroclinic enhancement. I think the threat is heightened for a strong storm, about all you can say at this point. Strong storm doesn't mean '38 redux either. If the 12z runs come and hit it harder...than more confidence of siggy impact, but really it will take until later tomorrow or Friday morning to truly sample all the players. People need to remember that. Sorry to bust in but I am really curious as to how different a tropical based nor'easter and one that forms off say SC can be. With respect to warm core and winds does it mean that the winds would be more gusty in a tropical based storm due to mixing down effects? Sorry if this is noobish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Some GEFS members are very fast, very west, and very south. Some Delmarva hits lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yes we know there's a storm 'o doom scenario out there but there is a whole continuum of solutions that range from a some heavier rain as tropical moisture gets involved with a low developing back here in NE to a hybrid that sits and spins east of the Cape. The direct hurricane hit is most unlikely... the vast majority of solutions that bring rain/wind would be far from historic IMO. That is looking more and more unlikely, Some other hybrid type of system is starting to look more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That is looking more and more unlikely, Some other hybrid type of system is starting to look more likely Huge wind field. Should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That is looking more and more unlikely, Some other hybrid type of system is starting to look more likely I'm not sure it's any less likely than it was 24 hours ago? I do think the op GFS kind of track is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the Euro direct hit is most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Could be something that is east of the Cape still..or nor'easter that develops and stalls....a few scenarios here. Yeah I can see that as well. Personally I just don't see how we don't see "some" sort of impact out of this mess. What that is remains to be seen. I thought the Op Euro was a bit over amplified and the Op GFS was an utter disaster. At about 108h you can see the GFS starting to phase Sandy with the trough but by about 120h Sandy is still moving off to the NE. It looks like the GFS breaks down the N Alt. Ridge on the southern edge, allowing Sandy to scoot offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think the Euro direct hit is most likely As is another CT Blizz time out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah I can see that as well. Personally I just don't see how we don't see "some" sort of impact out of this mess. What that is remains to be seen. I thought the Op Euro was a bit over amplified and the Op GFS was an utter disaster. At about 108h you can see the GFS starting to phase Sandy with the trough but by about 120h Sandy is still moving off to the NE. It looks like the GFS breaks down the N Alt. Ridge on the southern edge, allowing Sandy to scoot offshore. I agree. I think the odds of some impact definitely better than 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just looking at the 06 mean now and you get that feel from the look of how Sandy starts to recurve only to be pulled back in by the strong baroclinic zone along the coast. Call me a weenie but I am beginning to fell a scenario like the Euro is becoming more plausible, just further up the coast than the 00z run. weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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