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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture?

The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east.

Good summation

Way ENE of 0z at 126.

Big time whiff. lol

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I mean the GFS is sort of comical. It has a monster negative trough and that monster rex block downstream.

While a lot of it looks better it's still able to forge an escape route as it moves the the big cut-off low in the N Atlantic to the east just in time and the ridge is never able to build back in behind it.

Not surprisingly with the monster neg trough over SNE we're going to get a big rain event from it.

op GFS looks suspicious to me.

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The 06 GFS kind of looks like a running back. It seems to try and make these feints to the west a couple of times before discovering a hole to the right and then sprints for a touchdown (or in this case a miss).

I figure Jay might enjoy the football analogy. Class this morning, Jay?

:lol:

Yup! Went to bed really early. Woke up at 5am.

Lots going of stuff going on here... Google 'Towson Football' and look for some recently published articles :facepalm:

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i don't think we could summarize why not to use the GFS any better than DT did. It's garbage..and useless..yet so many of you continue to use it

xrisk.com WHEAT DOES THIS MEANS .. non weather geek talk here...

To some degree this really doesn't change anything. This particular weather model known as the GFS or the American weather model has a well deserved and notorious reputation of being a simply awful weather model beyond 84 hours out with regard to big East Coast weather systems.... such as hurricanes and snowstorms. The last several runs of this particular weather model have consistently taken sandy out into the Atlantic Ocean affecting nobody. However with each new run of the GFS model... we see Sandy come a little further north and a little closer to the coast ....before it makes at sharp turn out into the Atlantic Ocean.

Many of the TV and local weather people and weather web s information sites that you might be watching will probably continue to tell you that this is a non event for everybody up and down the East Coast whether you are in Virginia or New York City or Boston. They willl be saying that based upon this new run of the GFS.

All that being said once we get within 72 hours of this event... Sometime on Friday for example I am certain that we will see a dramatic shift in the GFS weather model towards the coast and towards a solutions shown by other weather models.

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i don't think we could summarize why not to use the GFS any better than DT did. It's garbage..and useless..yet so many of you continue to use it

xrisk.com WHEAT DOES THIS MEANS .. non weather geek talk here...

To some degree this really doesn't change anything. This particular weather model known as the GFS or the American weather model has a well deserved and notorious reputation of being a simply awful weather model beyond 84 hours out with regard to big East Coast weather systems.... such as hurricanes and snowstorms. The last several runs of this particular weather model have consistently taken sandy out into the Atlantic Ocean affecting nobody. However with each new run of the GFS model... we see Sandy come a little further north and a little closer to the coast ....before it makes at sharp turn out into the Atlantic Ocean.

Many of the TV and local weather people and weather web s information sites that you might be watching will probably continue to tell you that this is a non event for everybody up and down the East Coast whether you are in Virginia or New York City or Boston. They willl be saying that based upon this new run of the GFS.

All that being said once we get within 72 hours of this event... Sometime on Friday for example I am certain that we will see a dramatic shift in the GFS weather model towards the coast and towards a solutions shown by other weather models.

Be that as it may--we need to recognize that every model is not on board--gem, e.g., now missing to the east. Still so much time to play out here as it's only Wednesday.

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