Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's certainly west @ 60 on my quick plots. The other plots including 500mb vorticity are not past 30. Not sure if this is going to phase or not because of that. Don't need to do play by play of the GFS, people know where to find it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Surface features and rain looks quicker across the midwest @ 66. I'm judging the features at 500mb must be quicker this run. Moderate rain impacting the outer banks upstream from Sandy already at this point. Precip shield from Sandy literally just offshore from Eastern FL this run. Definitely deeper and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 very large wind field modeled on the globals. very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS position from 00z to 06z is identical at 78 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 very large wind field modeled on the globals. very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Don't need to do play by play of the GFS, people know where to find it... Most people aren't up and looking at it @ 530. I know i enjoy getting up and seeing analysis without having to find it for myself when I have to leave for my day. Suggestion taken though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 You know there is a big storm on the models when meteorologists start calling other meteorologists weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC FTW??? THE FACT THAT THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HAS JOINED THE CLUSTER BRINGING A STG STORM SYSTEM TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What time does 6z GFS come out at? Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC FTW??? THE FACT THAT THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HAS JOINED THE CLUSTER BRINGING A STG STORM SYSTEM TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. Where's that from? Digging trough to the west on 6z op GFS looks better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where's that from? Digging trough to the west on 6z op GFS looks better than 00z. Sure did. But sure looks through 102 its likely OTS, but I can't see any of the 500 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 lolol at the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Way ENE of 0z at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Way ENE of 0z at 126. Definitely faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looked great until about 105hr, then all of a sudden exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The euro or gfs is gonna fail miserably In The medium range of this system when all is said and done..:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture? The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east. Good summation Way ENE of 0z at 126. Big time whiff. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where's that from? Tolland Hurricane Prediction Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 06 GFS kind of looks like a running back. It seems to try and make these feints to the west a couple of times before discovering a hole to the right and then sprints for a touchdown (or in this case a miss). I figure Jay might enjoy the football analogy. Class this morning, Jay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I mean the GFS is sort of comical. It has a monster negative trough and that monster rex block downstream. While a lot of it looks better it's still able to forge an escape route as it moves the the big cut-off low in the N Atlantic to the east just in time and the ridge is never able to build back in behind it. Not surprisingly with the monster neg trough over SNE we're going to get a big rain event from it. op GFS looks suspicious to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 06 GFS kind of looks like a running back. It seems to try and make these feints to the west a couple of times before discovering a hole to the right and then sprints for a touchdown (or in this case a miss). I figure Jay might enjoy the football analogy. Class this morning, Jay? Yup! Went to bed really early. Woke up at 5am. Lots going of stuff going on here... Google 'Towson Football' and look for some recently published articles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 op GFS looks suspicious to me. Cue Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i don't think we could summarize why not to use the GFS any better than DT did. It's garbage..and useless..yet so many of you continue to use it xrisk.com WHEAT DOES THIS MEANS .. non weather geek talk here... To some degree this really doesn't change anything. This particular weather model known as the GFS or the American weather model has a well deserved and notorious reputation of being a simply awful weather model beyond 84 hours out with regard to big East Coast weather systems.... such as hurricanes and snowstorms. The last several runs of this particular weather model have consistently taken sandy out into the Atlantic Ocean affecting nobody. However with each new run of the GFS model... we see Sandy come a little further north and a little closer to the coast ....before it makes at sharp turn out into the Atlantic Ocean. Many of the TV and local weather people and weather web s information sites that you might be watching will probably continue to tell you that this is a non event for everybody up and down the East Coast whether you are in Virginia or New York City or Boston. They willl be saying that based upon this new run of the GFS. All that being said once we get within 72 hours of this event... Sometime on Friday for example I am certain that we will see a dramatic shift in the GFS weather model towards the coast and towards a solutions shown by other weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Where's that from? Digging trough to the west on 6z op GFS looks better than 00z. HPC morning disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I actually don't think GFS makes a whole lot of sense. I could see a more NBD or miss track but not what the GFS is doing. I have a hard time that rex block breaks down and Sandy can replace the N Atlantic low that's already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 i don't think we could summarize why not to use the GFS any better than DT did. It's garbage..and useless..yet so many of you continue to use it xrisk.com WHEAT DOES THIS MEANS .. non weather geek talk here... To some degree this really doesn't change anything. This particular weather model known as the GFS or the American weather model has a well deserved and notorious reputation of being a simply awful weather model beyond 84 hours out with regard to big East Coast weather systems.... such as hurricanes and snowstorms. The last several runs of this particular weather model have consistently taken sandy out into the Atlantic Ocean affecting nobody. However with each new run of the GFS model... we see Sandy come a little further north and a little closer to the coast ....before it makes at sharp turn out into the Atlantic Ocean. Many of the TV and local weather people and weather web s information sites that you might be watching will probably continue to tell you that this is a non event for everybody up and down the East Coast whether you are in Virginia or New York City or Boston. They willl be saying that based upon this new run of the GFS. All that being said once we get within 72 hours of this event... Sometime on Friday for example I am certain that we will see a dramatic shift in the GFS weather model towards the coast and towards a solutions shown by other weather models. Be that as it may--we need to recognize that every model is not on board--gem, e.g., now missing to the east. Still so much time to play out here as it's only Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yup! Went to bed really early. Woke up at 5am. Lots going of stuff going on here... Google 'Towson Football' and look for some recently published articles Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nice to see the Nogaps continue the crushing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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