SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Even if it somehow was 110 mph off the Bahamas the thing would be a TS by the time it got to the NE given I'd be retired by the time it got here if the Euro forward speed is right. That's probably true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 IR has the beginnings of an eye poking out of the middle. I can't believe people are focusing on silly semantics a week away when we're seeing one of the only rapidly developing cyclones of the past few years amping up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that. I don't see anyone hyping this as a major hurricane. That would be completely foolish to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I can start naming if you want. Be careful with your absolutes. Name dropping isn't going to help your cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 that there is an eye folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Can you post a still? I'm on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 diurnal min and lookin' pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Every storm that intensifies does not mean RI. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Every storm that intensifies does not mean RI. FYI. The hurricane hunters will confirm whether this did or not not come the AM, but judging current appearance I would think it would be deepening at a rate faster than 24mb per day. Isn't that the threshold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The hurricane hunters will confirm whether this did or not not come the AM, but judging current appearance I would think it would be deepening at a rate faster than 24mb per day. Isn't that the threshold? Thats a bomb. RI is 42mb in 24 hours. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro ensembles coming out now. Through 96 hours the ensemble mean looks almost dead nuts with the 12z mean. A bit deeper (better consensus) and a touch west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ensemble mean gets the thing farther east this run than it did on the 12z run (certainly east of the 00z operational)... but the mean low gets flung back toward SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ensemble mean gets the thing farther east this run than it did on the 12z run (certainly east of the 00z operational)... but the mean low gets flung back toward SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There is quite a bit of spread in both directions (east and west) on the 00z Euro ensemble mean. So definitely not a slam dunk. It's fair to say there are a number of members close to the op but there are also a number of members well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 There is quite a bit of spread in both directions (east and west) on the 00z Euro ensemble mean. So definitely not a slam dunk. It's fair to say there are a number of members close to the op but there are also a number of members well east. The depth and negative tilt of the trough on this mean is staggering....144 hours out? Oh my.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The depth and negative tilt of the trough on this mean is staggering....144 hours out? Oh my.... Impressive. It will still take a miracle to get this thing west enough but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture? The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GGEM develops a new respectable low on the inverted trough however. Im too foggy right now after just waking up for work but the fact the euro has been so consistent signalling a big event is becoming concerning. Yes its ens mean is a little different but it seems skewed both ways and to see such deep anomalies and a trough on the mean is also to be noted. The GEFS spaghetti is also continuing to show many ideas of a retrograde or shift towards the coast. I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture? The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't know if this even means anything, but it seems like with every major east cost storm in the past, the Euro always catches on very early and latches on,,and maybe wavers a run or 2, but overall it remains consistent. If you think back to all the big ones we've had..that is one constant we have..The Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The NATL blocking has been consistent on modelling. You can see the perfectly timed retrogression when running animation of the anomalies in the NATL.....just enough to get it done.....hope it sticks around this winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GGEM develops a new respectable low on the inverted trough however. Im too foggy right now after just waking up for work but the fact the euro has been so consistent signalling a big event is becoming concerning. Yes its ens mean is a little different but it seems skewed both ways and to see such deep anomalies and a trough on the mean is also to be noted. The GEFS spaghetti is also continuing to show many ideas of a retrograde or shift towards the coast. Yeah no doubt that there is nor'easter potential on the inverted trough. I think that's a good bet if Sandy misses. GFS ensembles show many hits with their members but there still is spread. FWIW the Canadian ensembles show a big spread but most models are way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 OT, but was looking back at some Oct. hurricanes...sometime need to dig up the pattern which caused this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I went to bed at 8... overnight runs definitely didn't do much to inspire significant confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What time does 6z GFS come out at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 What time does 6z GFS come out at? now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 now Time to hop on the computer then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Through 48 quick plots.. no big differences yet. low very slightly more sw over bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's certainly west @ 60 on my quick plots. The other plots including 500mb vorticity are not past 30. Not sure if this is going to phase or not because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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