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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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There is quite a bit of spread in both directions (east and west) on the 00z Euro ensemble mean. So definitely not a slam dunk. It's fair to say there are a number of members close to the op but there are also a number of members well east.

The depth and negative tilt of the trough on this mean is staggering....144 hours out? Oh my....

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I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture?

The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east.

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The GGEM develops a new respectable low on the inverted trough however.

Im too foggy right now after just waking up for work but the fact the euro has been so consistent signalling a big event is becoming concerning. Yes its ens mean is a little different but it seems skewed both ways and to see such deep anomalies and a trough on the mean is also to be noted. The GEFS spaghetti is also continuing to show many ideas of a retrograde or shift towards the coast.

I think as a whole the overnight trends were mixed. The ensembles still show many western members but there really hasn't been any shift west. If anything the Euro ensemble mean has trended a bit east before the late capture?

The UKMet looks west... but still a miss... GGEM way east.

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The GGEM develops a new respectable low on the inverted trough however.

Im too foggy right now after just waking up for work but the fact the euro has been so consistent signalling a big event is becoming concerning. Yes its ens mean is a little different but it seems skewed both ways and to see such deep anomalies and a trough on the mean is also to be noted. The GEFS spaghetti is also continuing to show many ideas of a retrograde or shift towards the coast.

Yeah no doubt that there is nor'easter potential on the inverted trough. I think that's a good bet if Sandy misses.

GFS ensembles show many hits with their members but there still is spread.

FWIW the Canadian ensembles show a big spread but most models are way out to sea.

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