SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did. Irene was 942mb. but i think Isaac is a very good example of the euros faults. it likes strengthening systems almost nullifying topographical effects. also with Isaac it negated the shear and dry air intrusion. It's done phenomenal track wise though. it was the first one to switch it's track to the gulf, days before other models folded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Irene was 942mb. but i think Isaac is a very good example of the euros faults. it likes strengthening systems almost nullifying topographical effects. also with Isaac it negated the shear and dry air intrusion. It's done phenomenal track wise though. it was the first one to switch it's track to the gulf, days before other models folded. This is a different scenario than Isaac though, once you throw a phase into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This is a different scenario than Isaac though, once you throw a phase into the mix. it will still face topographical effects and increasing shear, and honestly statistically the euro has done better track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 it will still face topographical effects, and honestly statistically the euro has done better track wise. What topography is over the ocean? It phases while over water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 it will still face topographical effects, and honestly statistically the euro has done better track wise. I'm not disputing the track part. And yes, earlier on in the Caribbean, it probably will face some topographical influences. ~36 hrs should tell us what kind of system we have coming north of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, my concern is rising. But it really is on it's own right now (with the Nogaps). We'll see. It's hard to be confident about the superstorm scenario when the only model that agrees is the NOGAPS... which is hardly ever right about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well the op GFS is certainly on the right side of its ensembles The Euro seems a bit more believable with a more western track all along that moves more S to N with a late capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What topography is over the ocean? It phases while over water... are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself. When did we get on shear, you mentioned topography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's hard to be confident about the superstorm scenario when the only model that agrees is the NOGAPS... which is hardly ever right about anything. GFS ensembles also agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself. He is absolutely not saying this. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 When did we get on shear, you mentioned topography. ok lets talk about topography then... you don't think downsloping off of cuba will be bad for the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS ensembles also agree with it. And the 12z euro ensembles, CMC ensembles, and UKIE ensembles. (For the most part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ok lets talk about topography then... you don't think downsloping off of cuba will be bad for the low? I already mentioned that, read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And the 12z euro ensembles, CMC ensembles, and UKIE ensembles. (For the most part) Have you seen the 00z CMC or UK ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW 00z UK is closer to the coast.... still a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself. The storm will never be a more than a 75mph hurricane probably once its to the Bahamas, I think NHC and most of us would agree on that...everything after that will just be a really big sprawled out noreaster probably with 40-50 mph winds and gusts to 60-70 mph. Thats my guess right now as to what this is if the Euro/NOGAPS solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ok lets talk about topography then... you don't think downsloping off of cuba will be bad for the low? It will be over/near Cuba for at most 8-10 hours so I think it will be negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Rapid intensification now occurring? Convection now completely around the center it seems, with booming cloud tops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-avn-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Rapid intensification now occurring? Convection now completely around the center it seems, with booming cloud tops. http://www.ssd.noaa....h-avn-long.html Certainly looks to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Certainly looks to be the case. I don't want to jump the gun but we haven't actually seen a storm undergo RI in quite some time, I believe, maybe even all the way back to '07? It's been forever since a system has spun up like Sandy has tonight & the latest IR images are more and more impressive. Cat 2 into Jamaica would certainly be possible. The outflow along the Northern and Eastern sides of Sandy has improved very dramatically in the past few hours, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that. The storm will never be a more than a 75mph hurricane probably once its to the Bahamas, I think NHC and most of us would agree on that...everything after that will just be a really big sprawled out noreaster probably with 40-50 mph winds and gusts to 60-70 mph. Thats my guess right now as to what this is if the Euro/NOGAPS solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Have you seen the 00z CMC or UK ensembles? Sorry, the whole list was 12z...I have not seen the CMC or UK ensembles. Will edit my other post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sorry, the whole list was 12z...I have not seen the CMC or UK ensembles. Will edit my other post. That's ok... was just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 And the 12z euro ensembles, 12z CMC ensembles, and 12z UKIE ensembles. (For the most part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that. Even if it somehow was 110 mph off the Bahamas the thing would be a TS by the time it got to the NE given I'd be retired by the time it got here if the Euro forward speed is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What did the euro do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that. Nobody is hyping this to be like a major cane, because it is a different type of storm altogether once it heads further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I can start naming if you want. Be careful with your absolutes. Nobody is hyping this to be like a major cane, because it is a different type of storm altogether once it heads further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I don't want to jump the gun but we haven't actually seen a storm undergo RI in quite some time, I believe, maybe even all the way back to '07? It's been forever since a system has spun up like Sandy has tonight & the latest IR images are more and more impressive. Cat 2 into Jamaica would certainly be possible. The outflow along the Northern and Eastern sides of Sandy has improved very dramatically in the past few hours, as well. Just looked at the next overpasses for microwave satellites and we don't get a good one till 15z. Recon will be in by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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