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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did.

Irene was 942mb. but i think Isaac is a very good example of the euros faults. it likes strengthening systems almost nullifying topographical effects. also with Isaac it negated the shear and dry air intrusion. It's done phenomenal track wise though. it was the first one to switch it's track to the gulf, days before other models folded.

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Irene was 942mb. but i think Isaac is a very good example of the euros faults. it likes strengthening systems almost nullifying topographical effects. also with Isaac it negated the shear and dry air intrusion. It's done phenomenal track wise though. it was the first one to switch it's track to the gulf, days before other models folded.

This is a different scenario than Isaac though, once you throw a phase into the mix.

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it will still face topographical effects, and honestly statistically the euro has done better track wise.

I'm not disputing the track part.

And yes, earlier on in the Caribbean, it probably will face some topographical influences. ~36 hrs should tell us what kind of system we have coming north of Cuba.

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What topography is over the ocean? It phases while over water...

are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself.

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are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself.

When did we get on shear, you mentioned topography.

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are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself.

He is absolutely not saying this. C'mon.

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are you saying shear will have no effects on a tropical cyclone? if there is one thing i learned from isaac is that the euro discounts shear alot. i know i was hyping this up a few days ago, but right now there is ALOT of shear to the north and the cyclone needs to reduce in radius if it wants to conserve itself.

The storm will never be a more than a 75mph hurricane probably once its to the Bahamas, I think NHC and most of us would agree on that...everything after that will just be a really big sprawled out noreaster probably with 40-50 mph winds and gusts to 60-70 mph. Thats my guess right now as to what this is if the Euro/NOGAPS solutions verify.

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Certainly looks to be the case.

I don't want to jump the gun but we haven't actually seen a storm undergo RI in quite some time, I believe, maybe even all the way back to '07? It's been forever since a system has spun up like Sandy has tonight & the latest IR images are more and more impressive. Cat 2 into Jamaica would certainly be possible.

The outflow along the Northern and Eastern sides of Sandy has improved very dramatically in the past few hours, as well.

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I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that.

The storm will never be a more than a 75mph hurricane probably once its to the Bahamas, I think NHC and most of us would agree on that...everything after that will just be a really big sprawled out noreaster probably with 40-50 mph winds and gusts to 60-70 mph. Thats my guess right now as to what this is if the Euro/NOGAPS solutions verify.

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I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that.

Even if it somehow was 110 mph off the Bahamas the thing would be a TS by the time it got to the NE given I'd be retired by the time it got here if the Euro forward speed is right.

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I agree. Just some are hyping this to be like a major cane..but i guess enhanced wind field can compensate for the lack of that.

Nobody is hyping this to be like a major cane, because it is a different type of storm altogether once it heads further north.

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I don't want to jump the gun but we haven't actually seen a storm undergo RI in quite some time, I believe, maybe even all the way back to '07? It's been forever since a system has spun up like Sandy has tonight & the latest IR images are more and more impressive. Cat 2 into Jamaica would certainly be possible.

The outflow along the Northern and Eastern sides of Sandy has improved very dramatically in the past few hours, as well.

Just looked at the next overpasses for microwave satellites and we don't get a good one till 15z. Recon will be in by then.

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