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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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It's possible that there may be a weakness there and with the storm still having tropical characteristics...once it sniffs that weakness...it tends to head towards it. Perhaps that's what is going on.

I agree with this...I don't think the run should be thrown out because the storm moves east. If it were to play out like the GFS says it will (which it probably wont), the h5 trof over the central us is not nearly energetic enough to race south and east and phase with the system until it gets to a higher latitude. Sure the big NF anomaly/block effectively stops the storm from moving north and east...but in this specific GFS set up there is, like you said, a weakness there for the storm to slide east into near or just south of Bermuda's latitude..and it's almost pushed there by the mundane height falls in relation to the weak trof over the OV.

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I wouldn't have expected it to latch onto a Euro solution and shift 1000 miles by hr 144 so it's good to see a rather marked improvement in the pattern.

The drastic shift from 18z just proves that the GFS, as well as the pattern, is really unstable. A few more tweaks

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I looked at the 0zGFS more closely, the circulation to Sandy's east connects to Sandy's circulation and pulls it east, but every new run of the GFS seems to be lessening this interaction bit by bit which is why its the eastern outlier while most of the other models don't seem to have much interaction between the low to the east and Sandy which keeps Sandy near or making landfall in the NEUS

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To one of CTRains points in the closed thread...it makes a lot of difference to people whether NHC maintains Sandy as a named storm or declares it extratropical. Most homeomwners insurance policies have a much higher deductible for damage caused by a named tropical cyclone. If the storm is deemed extratropical/nor'easter, you can fight them if they try to impose the higher deductible.

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To one of CTRains points in the closed thread...it makes a lot of difference to people whether NHC maintains Sandy as a named storm or declares it extratropical. Most homeomwners insurance policies have a much higher deductible for damage caused by a named tropical cyclone. If the storm is deemed extratropical/nor'easter, you can fight them if they try to impose the higher deductible.

hmm interesting, i wonder if insurance companys planning on using the fine print to enforce higher deductible's for named winter storms as well.

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Nice to see all our players visible on the NOAM projection now. It's that shortwave circled in white that is forecast to kick the trough negative and eventually capture Sandy. The question the modeling is battling is when (thanks to the impressive blocking this is looking less like an if) and where that takes place.

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Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did.

You seem to keep bringing up the Irene scenario. Any particular reason why? (Not being hostile, I'd actually like to find out)

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