andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Landfall in Nova Scotia, so even after it gets that far east, it still gets pulled back to not be a fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hearing the gem is following the GFS... Just a prelim, haven't seen to confirm. Nothing is out on the GEM yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I just wish there was cold air in place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00z gfs shows a capture...so thats good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00z gfs shows a capture...so thats good at this point. I wouldn't have expected it to latch onto a Euro solution and shift 1000 miles by hr 144 so it's good to see a rather marked improvement in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's possible that there may be a weakness there and with the storm still having tropical characteristics...once it sniffs that weakness...it tends to head towards it. Perhaps that's what is going on. I agree with this...I don't think the run should be thrown out because the storm moves east. If it were to play out like the GFS says it will (which it probably wont), the h5 trof over the central us is not nearly energetic enough to race south and east and phase with the system until it gets to a higher latitude. Sure the big NF anomaly/block effectively stops the storm from moving north and east...but in this specific GFS set up there is, like you said, a weakness there for the storm to slide east into near or just south of Bermuda's latitude..and it's almost pushed there by the mundane height falls in relation to the weak trof over the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I wouldn't have expected it to latch onto a Euro solution and shift 1000 miles by hr 144 so it's good to see a rather marked improvement in the pattern. The drastic shift from 18z just proves that the GFS, as well as the pattern, is really unstable. A few more tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I looked at the 0zGFS more closely, the circulation to Sandy's east connects to Sandy's circulation and pulls it east, but every new run of the GFS seems to be lessening this interaction bit by bit which is why its the eastern outlier while most of the other models don't seem to have much interaction between the low to the east and Sandy which keeps Sandy near or making landfall in the NEUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 To one of CTRains points in the closed thread...it makes a lot of difference to people whether NHC maintains Sandy as a named storm or declares it extratropical. Most homeomwners insurance policies have a much higher deductible for damage caused by a named tropical cyclone. If the storm is deemed extratropical/nor'easter, you can fight them if they try to impose the higher deductible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Someone hit the Weenie Panic Button! GEM is wayyy OTS with Sandy, Trough makes a Nor'Easter with a little bit of Sandy's energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00z GFS ensemble looks great...still a hit for LI/SNE. Probably a little further SW from the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Weenie Panic Button = Activated. Consolatory Nor'Easter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 To one of CTRains points in the closed thread...it makes a lot of difference to people whether NHC maintains Sandy as a named storm or declares it extratropical. Most homeomwners insurance policies have a much higher deductible for damage caused by a named tropical cyclone. If the storm is deemed extratropical/nor'easter, you can fight them if they try to impose the higher deductible. hmm interesting, i wonder if insurance companys planning on using the fine print to enforce higher deductible's for named winter storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's the same longitude it was at that time on the 12z GGEM as well, so nothing really new there, just what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Weenie Panic Button = Activated. Consolatory Nor'Easter: do you have a link to the modeled 850 temps at hr 168. ill take 969 mb noreaster, no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That Nor'easter is still infused with moisture from Sandy, so chances are it still has a substantially high precip display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Sandy is in a favorable spot for now, hence (RI). But she will undergo a few landfalls and hostile shear in Bahamas to keep her in check somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nice to see all our players visible on the NOAM projection now. It's that shortwave circled in white that is forecast to kick the trough negative and eventually capture Sandy. The question the modeling is battling is when (thanks to the impressive blocking this is looking less like an if) and where that takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hi Pacific s/w, nice to see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 euro running, sleep follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 965 mb in the Bahamas at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 For reference, here's last night's 00z at the same timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro south and west. Jesus. Extremely deep and slow with a crawl into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro looks crazy, media is going to start hyping doomsday scenarios again. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro south and west. Jesus. Extremely deep and slow with a crawl into NJ. Well, my concern is rising. But it really is on it's own right now (with the Nogaps). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well, my concern is rising. But it really is on it's own right now (with the Nogaps). We'll see. And the GFS ensemble mean to a certain extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did. Yes it did. I doubt anyone really thinks this is going into nyc at 930! 960 would be more realistic and still near record low for a non truly tropical storm in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yes it did. I doubt anyone really thinks this is going into nyc at 930! 960 would be more realistic and still near record low for a non truly tropical storm in the US. Thats pretty much blizzard of 93 territory I believe, that was 965mb or so as it came to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Didn't the Euro show insane pressures with Irene as well at this stage like 920s or 930s? My memory seems to indicate it did. You seem to keep bringing up the Irene scenario. Any particular reason why? (Not being hostile, I'd actually like to find out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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