NJwinter23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah overall the Euro killed the GFS in that storm in the D4-5 lead time. Euro was the last model to lose it around D3 but then it got back on board the same run the GFS had the big change to a hit. Everyone thinks the GFS got it before the other models when it came back...but that is only because its graphics come out first. It was the same run where the Euro came back too...the 12z Dec 24th run. Actually this is not true as I remember it Will. the 12z euro on the 24th was out to sea still, which gave more fuel to the "bad data, ignore the 12z gfs" dismissal...00z came on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Inconsistency = GFS Consistency = EURO More Historically inaccurate = GFS Historically most accurate = EURO Only concern is GFS has newer data. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big changes on the GEFS from 12z to 18z. Only 1 or 2 direct hits, a few late captures, and a lot of misses with a secondary that pops up on the intverted trough wants the s/w digs and closes off. A discouraging trend if you wanted a NE impact for Sandy. It's the 18z...one run. To call it a "trend", I'd want to see 2-3 runs of the same thing. Also, it's the 18z run of the model that has been all over the place so far with this storm. Meteorologically, I want this thing to be something I've never seen before and might never see again. But as a scientist, I have to take a step back and weigh this out scientifically. Statistics rule (climatology), but that doesn't mean there can't be exceptions to the rules... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Actually this is not true as I remember it Will. the 12z euro on the 24th was out to sea still, which gave more fuel to the "bad data, ignore the 12z gfs" dismissal...00z came on board You know what, I think you are right. It got to bask in glory for 1 run. I now have memories of the 12z 24th Euro run giving E MA snow, but not a lot...and whiffing people to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big changes on the GEFS from 12z to 18z. Only 1 or 2 direct hits, a few late captures, and a lot of misses with a secondary that pops up on the intverted trough wants the s/w digs and closes off. A discouraging trend if you wanted a NE impact for Sandy. Not quite a good sign... the GFS mostly had misses until this point but the ensemble members were leaning towards a NE hit, although not this run. I'm not too concerned about this change as after all, we've seen in the past how much things can change within the 5-day range. If this trend towards Sandy escaping and a secondary popping up continues until at least Day 3 then I'd be more concerned about the Sandy NE landfall scenario, but until then there's still going to be changes as the models still don't have a lot of consistency between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big changes on the GEFS from 12z to 18z. Only 1 or 2 direct hits, a few late captures, and a lot of misses with a secondary that pops up on the intverted trough wants the s/w digs and closes off. A discouraging trend if you wanted a NE impact for Sandy. Sounds good to me along with a snow threat down the road. Power is good snow is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Probably a re-post but for those who don't know this site it's a good one with the ability to set many search parameters. Historical Hurricane tracks: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 recon almost back into sandy should be interesting what they find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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