CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looks like the GEFS will have a lot of spread at 18z. Maybe a bit more than they did at 12z. Some solutions are east (still could mean late hook like 12z op). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm going to go out on a limb and say the GFS will verify and the storm will take the classic path between Bermuda and the east coast and maybe hit eastern Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Also, isn't it true that usually when the GFS and the Euro are completely different... doesn't the GFS usually prevail? I guess the thought of having an Epic Storm... like Hazel was fun while it lasted. Now reality sets in. I was going to buy batteries and more gas... now I'm doing nothing. I live right on the central CT coast. Maybe some showers and gusts to 20. In my experience, definitely not... other way around (usually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's still early. At least personally I wouldn't do anything until Friday afternoon or so. If I had a boat in the water I'd probably try to get it out now but other than that I think it's still really early in all of this. I'd rather grab anything now or tomorrow while stores are relatively quiet as long as it's stuff that won't go to waste if the storm misses. Also stuff like checking generators and sump pumps to make sure they're operational. That's about the entirety of my preparation anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm going to go out on a limb and say the GFS will verify and the storm will take the classic path between Bermuda and the east coast and maybe hit eastern Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Also, isn't it true that usually when the GFS and the Euro are completely different... doesn't the GFS usually prevail? I guess the thought of having an Epic Storm... like Hazel was fun while it lasted. Now reality sets in. I was going to buy batteries and more gas... now I'm doing nothing. I live right on the central CT coast. Maybe some showers and gusts to 20. Also, isn't it true that usually when the GFS and the Euro are completely different... doesn't the GFS usually prevail? No, in fact, it's the EXACT opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Interesting factoid I read over at Accuweather and something to remind folks to remember how rare (and unlikely) it will be for all this to come together perfectly: No Oct/Nov/Dec storm that had ever reached Category 3 has made landfall north of Florida since 1900 - in fact, no storm in any month after 1900 has maintained at least cat 3 status anywhere close to the NE coast except for Esther in 1961. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/sandy-the-superstorm/622903 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Interesting factoid I read over at Accuweather and something to remind folks to remember how rare (and unlikely) it will be for all this to come together perfectly: No Oct/Nov/Dec storm that had ever reached Category 3 has made landfall north of Florida since 1900 - in fact, no storm in any month after 1900 has maintained at least cat 3 status anywhere close to the NE coast except for Esther in 1961. http://www.accuweath...perstorm/622903 What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS look like the OP in that it goes wide right and is pulled back via the inverted trough route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS look like the OP in that it goes wide right and is pulled back via the inverted trough route. Monster spread..half to our sw and some members to our NE..LEaving us in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ok..so the larger areal space it covers means the harder a capture would be? Yes...if given two identical synoptic setups a Katrina would be harder to "capture" than our current Tony.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 LakeEffectKing has said this might be a major cane before Cuba. Now that would be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Others can chime in with anything else to add, but I'd argue that the size of the storm generally would play more of factor than CP reading. Something I considered is that with PV anomalies, the stronger the hurricane is, the stronger the associated circulation with the PV anomaly that repels the PV anomaly in the trough to the west, making phasing more difficult. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What?? IDK don't shoot the messenger I was surprised to read it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Chris...1938 ring a bell? Oct, Nov, Dec was the qualifier. 38 was Sept 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 IDK don't shoot the messenger I was surprised to read it myself. Maybe they forgot a sentence or two to qualify it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It would not surprise me if Sandy is a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes a 2nd land fall. It clearly attended superior structure despite passing over land - interestingly, Jamaica boasts some 6 and 7 thousand foot peaks where Sandy passed over. It has a concentric ring structure and very clearly discerned eye now, and the water it will be passing over during the next 70 miles is deep with oceanic heat content. Shear is still not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Maybe they forgot a sentence or two to qualify it? Yeah, that's why I put the link up. Maybe Jesse was hittin' the good stuff before he blogged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 One thing I have been thinking about is the speed picking up with this system. Some mets have noted a concern of the models being too slow with movement. If the storm moves through too quickly, that could certainly effect the possibility of a phase. However, with the epic blocking there may be nowhere to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Oct, Nov, Dec was the qualifier. 38 was Sept 21st I meant for the second part of that "any month" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It would not surprise me if Sandy is a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes a 2nd land fall. It clearly attended superior structure despite passing over land - interestingly, Jamaica boasts some 6 and 7 thousand foot peaks where Sandy passed over. It has a concentric ring structure and very clearly discerned eye now, and the water it will be passing over during the next 70 miles is deep with oceanic heat content. Shear is still not an issue. Cuba has more landmass but obviously depends on which part of the island it passes over and at what speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Also, isn't it true that usually when the GFS and the Euro are completely different... doesn't the GFS usually prevail? No, in fact, it's the EXACT opposite! I don't have too many examples right now but the first ones I can think of are 12/13/10, 12/26/10 and 10/29/11. The ECM and GFS were different, the ECM was more consistent than the GFS, and the GFS ended up caving to the ECM. It's not like that in every situation but from what I've observed in many cases the ECM prevails more frequently than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Big changes on the GEFS from 12z to 18z. Only 1 or 2 direct hits, a few late captures, and a lot of misses with a secondary that pops up on the intverted trough wants the s/w digs and closes off. A discouraging trend if you wanted a NE impact for Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 One note on the Boxing Day model mayhem... I clearly remember the Euro showing it first, then the GFS showed it, then they both lost it. Then the GFS was the first to bring it back as it was the first to initialize with the newest RAOB data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well 0z are gonna be pretty important. (Captain obvious). I just can't weigh the ever chaotic gfs vs the mostly steadfast euro. Mostly when it comes the H5 evolution concerning the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just like tomorrows 12z and 00z will be important too..... Well 0z are gonna be pretty important. (Captain obvious). I just can't weigh the ever chaotic gfs vs the mostly steadfast euro. Mostly when it comes the H5 evolution concerning the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 One note on the Boxing Day model mayhem... I clearly remember the Euro showing it first, then the GFS showed it, then they both lost it. Then the GFS was the first to bring it back as it was the first to initialize with the newest RAOB data. Yeah overall the Euro killed the GFS in that storm in the D4-5 lead time. Euro was the last model to lose it around D3 but then it got back on board the same run the GFS had the big change to a hit. Everyone thinks the GFS got it before the other models when it came back...but that is only because its graphics come out first. It was the same run where the Euro came back too...the 12z Dec 24th run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The gfs has been all over with this storm the euro has been pretty much the same everyone should of expected this with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 You betcha, actually I think all guidance brought it back with that run. I know there was an issue of under estimating the strenghth of the main vort max in the northern stream. Yeah overall the Euro killed the GFS in that storm in the D4-5 lead time. Euro was the last model to lose it around D3 but then it got back on board the same run the GFS had the big change to a hit. Everyone thinks the GFS got it before the other models when it came back...but that is only because its graphics come out first. It was the same run where the Euro came back too...the 12z Dec 24th run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Interesting factoid I read over at Accuweather and something to remind folks to remember how rare (and unlikely) it will be for all this to come together perfectly: No Oct/Nov/Dec storm that had ever reached Category 3 has made landfall north of Florida since 1900 - in fact, no storm in any month after 1900 has maintained at least cat 3 status anywhere close to the NE coast except for Esther in 1961. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/sandy-the-superstorm/622903 What about Hazel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah overall the Euro killed the GFS in that storm in the D4-5 lead time. Euro was the last model to lose it around D3 but then it got back on board the same run the GFS had the big change to a hit. Everyone thinks the GFS got it before the other models when it came back...but that is only because its graphics come out first. It was the same run where the Euro came back too...the 12z Dec 24th run. continue good juju and start another thread for 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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