Alfoman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I would not be surprised if recon found a cat 2 right now. A beautiful eye has emerged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The storm looks great on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I know based on the models NE is out of it in terms of a snow situation..but is there cold enough air anywhere to our west and south for something to get into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, 18z NOGAPS seems to follow the 12z EURO OP idea... but its a tad east of it... makes a hard left turn into S NJ at 96ish Does it then continue NW? That'll be a let-down for this New England thread. Especially for Kevin. Welcome, Joe--great to have someone from the NW corner of CT here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not true. It has a lot of new data. We cleared that up the other day. People need to stop thinking this. yeah this isn't 2004 anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not true. It has a lot of new data. We cleared that up the other day. People need to stop thinking this. Not having seen that conversation--is it a whole refresh of the data-set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone not prepping for disaster is foolish IMO The idea is to already be somewhat prepped for one and scenarios like this are less stressful. Generator:. check Wood Stove: check Extra propane: Check Extra gas: check Several weeks food and water: check Candles and all size batteries: check Chain saw: check First Aid supplies could use updating / stocking but otherwise I hope I've got a safety net in place for family and neighbors in case some serious shiz goes down. Oh' yeah, extra beer and alcohol: check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am not a Met so don't know the details of how the 18Z initialized but it does raise a red flag. I really thought it would take another large step towards the Euro but it went the other way. A fluke run, who knows? I really believe in trends. Very surprised to see it do what it did. No, not storm cancel but it gives me pause to start talking this storm up to family and friends till the GFS is on board. Put less stock in the operational models, and put more in the ensembles since there's an enourmous spread in where Sandy could go due to the potential for it to be captured by upstream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The idea is to already be somewhat prepped for one and scenarios like this are less stressful. Generator:. check Wood Stove: check Extra propane: Check Extra gas: check Several weeks food and water: check Candles and all size batteries: check Chain saw: check First Aid supplies could use updating / stocking but otherwise I hope I've got a safety net in place for family and neighbors in case some serious shiz goes down. Oh' yeah, extra beer and alcohol: check It's still early. At least personally I wouldn't do anything until Friday afternoon or so. If I had a boat in the water I'd probably try to get it out now but other than that I think it's still really early in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Does it then continue NW? That'll be a let-down for this New England thread. Especially for Kevin. Welcome, Joe--great to have someone from the NW corner of CT here. Yes it does... ends up in SW NY/NW PA area by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The off-hour runs are JUST as important as the 00z and 12z runs. Plenty of new data is ingested into these runs... we have less horses and bayonets... And also remember that special 6 hourly soundings have already begun to be launched, and will cover the entire CONUS tomorrow, making the 6z and 18z runs practically just as well informed in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Model trends are not going to be linear when we are 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hope Frankie in Sydney is geared up for ultra powerful Hurricane Sandy. He better get his rubber boots and Chinese food ready if the GFS Is right...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Not having seen that conversation--is it a whole refresh of the data-set? No, just what is newly available... Upper Air plots, for example, normally wouldn't be at 18Z and 06Z... however, when that data starts being sampled with the increased upper air coverage for Sandy, those will be different too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Even the model runs that have Sandy escaping to the east, still tap into moisture from the hurricane, and produce heavy rainfall (4-8") over New England next week. Significant flooding threat either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question Say this strengthens into a Cat 2 or something like that..Does it make it more difficult for the phase/capture? In other words..does a weaker cane make for an easier capture pull to west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Does it then continue NW? That'll be a let-down for this New England thread. Especially for Kevin. Welcome, Joe--great to have someone from the NW corner of CT here. wow...thanks Mike lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I honestly do not think the 18z GFS makes sense to me how Sandy just drifts into a block. Sorry, thats just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I honestly do not think the 18z GFS makes sense to me how Sandy just drifts into a block. Sorry, thats just my opinion. I agree. It looks like it tries to find a weakness in the ridge as the low in the N Atl slowly oozes east giving it a window. I think it's bogus. That Rex Block will be more stable and I think the GFS is trying to change its configuration too quickly. I've tossed the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question Say this strengthens into a Cat 2 or something like that..Does it make it more difficult for the phase/capture? In other words..does a weaker cane make for an easier capture pull to west? Based on satellite it's basically a cat 2 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question Say this strengthens into a Cat 2 or something like that..Does it make it more difficult for the phase/capture? In other words..does a weaker cane make for an easier capture pull to west? Others can chime in with anything else to add, but I'd argue that the size of the storm generally would play more of factor than CP reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Based on satellite it's basically a cat 2 right now Do you know the answer to my ? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I honestly do not think the 18z GFS makes sense to me how Sandy just drifts into a block. Sorry, thats just my opinion. Agreed. It's almost like it's going out of its way to find any small nuance to counter the blocking, but the large scale blocking is just too strong and too stable in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The off-hour runs are JUST as important as the 00z and 12z runs. Plenty of new data is ingested into these runs... we have less horses and bayonets... And also remember that special 6 hourly soundings have already begun to be launched, and will cover the entire CONUS tomorrow, making the 6z and 18z runs practically just as well informed in this situation. Owing to how the models are initialized (esp the GFS) my understanding is tha the effect of the new data is often often not immediately ingested or I should will immediately show upo in the next immediate run after the "extra" U/A's are ingested into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Others can chime in with anything else to add, but I'd argue that the size of the storm generally would play more of factor than CP reading. I agree with this. Size is probably more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Others can chime in with anything else to add, but I'd argue that the size of the storm generally would play more of factor than CP reading. Ok..so the larger areal space it covers means the harder a capture would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I was last in Cape Breton in 1984. I guess it might have changed a little since then. I have flown over on quite a few transatlantic flights and waved at various parts of NS and NL. Hope Frankie in Sydney is geared up for ultra powerful Hurricane Sandy. He better get his rubber boots and Chinese food ready if the GFS Is right...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Congrats Cape Breton??... That's a joke...lol. I don't think the GFS has a clue. If the GFS is right I will have to board up the cottage in PEI.. crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's still early. At least personally I wouldn't do anything until Friday afternoon or so. If I had a boat in the water I'd probably try to get it out now but other than that I think it's still really early in all of this. That's it. Not really worried but paying attention. I just have all that stuff anyway so whatever happens nbd unless a tree falls on my house and that's far more likely up here from summer severe than a landfalling 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GEFS mean is a little more amplified with digging/neg tilted trough compared to op run. Position of sfc low fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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