NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone else 18z GFS initialized sandy too weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Seriously? Cause no other guidance does what the GFS just did... Don't look at it like that, it means that we have solutions that range from Maine to Maryland. We don't have a consensus as to where this will head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Guys, storm cancel was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I thought I was copying and pasting. I again apologize. I guess you were. Sorry. I was just going by KevinMA's note for you to "stop posting FB links". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I guess it's gonna be one of those classic GFS situations where it all of sudden catches on sometime tomorrow probably. op GFS and Euro still worlds apart. GFS is south and east of its 12z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The good thing about these threads are the heavy hitters in here. Good to see other input from Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS still might try to break off a secondary low by the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Welcome! you need a red tag! Thanks for the welcome! I don't know how to use this very well yet... But I'm enjoying americanwx already! You guys are great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Guys, storm cancel was a joke. lol, Folks are taking what is said verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Recon heading to the storm. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 another day, another solution, to be a MET is rough business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Nice hit for the Flemish Cap on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 oh lawlsy...sub 990mb from cape cod to bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 4-6 FEET of snow in West Virginia and central Appalachians on the 18z DGEX. Every 6-hours another 1.5-2" QPF falls with SFC temps in the upper 20s... NW flow upslope into the central Appalachians with tropical moisture, lol. This is only like half the storm and over 4" QPF as snow in the West Virginia mountains... haha. I'm all in for this one lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I still wouldn't even put a great deal of stock into SLP solutions and tracks...still in the range where how models are handling the upper air pattern is much more important and will have more credence than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am not a Met so don't know the details of how the 18Z initialized but it does raise a red flag. I really thought it would take another large step towards the Euro but it went the other way. A fluke run, who knows? I really believe in trends. Very surprised to see it do what it did. No, not storm cancel but it gives me pause to start talking this storm up to family and friends till the GFS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The good thing about these threads are the heavy hitters in here. Good to see other input from Mets. Noticed that earlier today ... much appreciate the varied (knowledgeable) viewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Anyone else 18z GFS initialized sandy too weak? I did. It initialized Sandy at 991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just goes to show you that we need another good 36 hrs to figure this out 4D-VAR. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thanks for the welcome! I don't know how to use this very well yet... But I'm enjoying americanwx already! You guys are great! You have come to the promise land! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The good thing about these threads are the heavy hitters in here. Good to see other input from Mets. Thanks for the props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, 18z NOGAPS seems to follow the 12z EURO OP idea... but its a tad east of it... makes a hard left turn into S NJ at 96ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This WILL be one of the most fascinating storms of many of our lifetimes....not because I'm certain of the impacts to come, but more from the aspect of the incredible meteorology we will learn from the event.....Sure ET transitions happen all the time....over fish, but to have it happen so close to the US and near the gulf stream will be quite rare......good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Man, Sydney, NS gets slammed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I am not a Met so don't know the details of how the 18Z initialized but it does raise a red flag. I really thought it would take another large step towards the Euro but it went the other way. A fluke run, who knows? I really believe in trends. Very surprised to see it do what it did. No, not storm cancel but it gives me pause to start talking this storm up to family and friends till the GFS is on board. It reuses the data from previous runs... There is NO new data added to the model run. The 18z & 6z do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It reuses the data from previous runs... There is NO new data added to the model run. The 18z & 6z do this. Not true. It has a lot of new data. We cleared that up the other day. People need to stop thinking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Congrats Cape Breton??... That's a joke...lol. I don't think the GFS has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 You didn't use it last October? My brother and I wired in a transfer switch a few weeks ago so I can have furnace etc if needed. Got a 10000W Subaru ready to roll. I just got my old Coleman 5000W repaired so if needed I'll loan that out to neighbors... or sell on CL for huge profit. (j/k) No need in October. The 27" of fluffy powder presented no issues, plus no leaves were on the trees. Maybe even another 48-60 really. I'm guessing the 12z run on Saturday. Nice hit for the Flemish Cap on the 18z GFS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'll ask the silly question at this point, given what we know now, what are the potential impacts given are various scenarios? I would assume that with most trees losing/lost leaves, that would have to help some with tree damage from SW CT north??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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