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Hurricane Sandy/Potential EC Event Discussion Part II


free_man

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This run is schit - toss it. come on - you have 0 steering available to a NE drift, in fact, moving SW from that -NAO block, and the GFS just moves the TC ENE blithely between 130 and 150 hours headlong into opposing steering - like physics don't matter?

I hope that's analyzed after the fact because something is wrong. That movement can't happen.

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This run is schit - toss it. come on - you have 0 steering available to a NE drift, in fact, moving SW from that -NAO block, and the GFS just moves the TC ENE between 130 and 150 hours like physics doesn't matter.

I hope that's analyzed after the fact because something is wrong. That movement can't happen.

It's possible that there may be a weakness there and with the storm still having tropical characteristics...once it sniffs that weakness...it tends to head towards it. Perhaps that's what is going on.

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Turns into more of a nor'easter which is probably a good starting point for now as we've mentioned. We'll see what guidance does later. It was a step in the right direction anyways.

Disagree - sorry. I think this is a tropical-hybrid impactor, buut I've been wrong before. This run is flat wrong in handing as is -

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hooking back in at 180....caught under the block. Probably shouldn't have made it that far east anyway with that gigantic block in the way. Who knows.

Heading towards Nova Scotia and is bombing thanks to the energy being ingested from the second upper low/trough.

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Disagree - sorry. I think this is a tropical-hybrid impactor, buut I've been wrong before. This run is flat wrong in handing as is -

I'm not saying the final outcome...just what seems reasonable at this point. I agree the impact could be much more, but a few more things need to work out before the alarms sound for a true Euro impact. Nothing wrong with saying a siggy storm is possible for the time being. Confidence will increase if the GEFS and EC continue with earlier solutions. That's usually a good way to play it...we obviously know what the high end is. I thought this run was good imo.

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GFS was right last time it showed an eastward drift with Debbie. However this time the storm is trapped below a block. I don't think a retrograding Ull is going to break down a ridge to the North of a TC like the GFS is showing. I guess it's possible because I'm an meteorological moron, but I will doubt it unless the Euro caves in i'm sticking with it. That ridge should hold unless it is shoved from the west.

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