CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Probably about 150NM west of 18z by hr 132 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Damn that is close at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 At this point we are just looking for a trend. 3 cycles of it, at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS looks to be going right after 132 ...oh well...closer and closer every run literally for the past 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 East Coast trough really goes negative at hr 138. It's doing everything it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 East Coast trough really goes negative at hr 138. It's doing everything it can. Inverted drop for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hr 144 has a much better West too with a sharper ridge aiding in digging the trough. Sandy is just a bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hr 144 has a much better West too ridge a sharper ridge aiding in digging the trough. Sandy is just a bit too far east. Just a hair too late... Sandy moving east from 108-120 hurt its chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just a hair too late... Sandy moving east from 108-120 hurt its chances I wouldn't expect it to move 500 miles in one run, but any improvement is ok 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Man, so close, yet so far away...although I'd tend to think the ensembles might take another jog west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just for fun, the NOGAPS landfalls on the Delmarva at hour 108 with a 960mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 heh, part of me actually wants the GFS to win. sick I know - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Turns into more of a nor'easter which is probably a good starting point for now as we've mentioned. We'll see what guidance does later. It was a step in the right direction anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Just for fun, the NOGAPS landfalls on the Delmarva at hour 108 with a 960mb low. 108??Saturday morning...isn't that like 1-2 days earlier then the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 0zGFS 156hr starts phasing with the trough, might show retrograde in later images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 108??Saturday morning...isn't that like 1-2 days earlier then the other models? Yep! That is after it somehow manages to ride the whole coast from Southern Florida to the Delmarva while only landfalling on the outerbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This run is schit - toss it. come on - you have 0 steering available to a NE drift, in fact, moving SW from that -NAO block, and the GFS just moves the TC ENE blithely between 130 and 150 hours headlong into opposing steering - like physics don't matter? I hope that's analyzed after the fact because something is wrong. That movement can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 This run is schit - toss it. come on - you have 0 steering available to a NE drift, in fact, moving SW from that -NAO block, and the GFS just moves the TC ENE between 130 and 150 hours like physics doesn't matter. I hope that's analyzed after the fact because something is wrong. That movement can't happen. It's possible that there may be a weakness there and with the storm still having tropical characteristics...once it sniffs that weakness...it tends to head towards it. Perhaps that's what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Turns into more of a nor'easter which is probably a good starting point for now as we've mentioned. We'll see what guidance does later. It was a step in the right direction anyways. Disagree - sorry. I think this is a tropical-hybrid impactor, buut I've been wrong before. This run is flat wrong in handing as is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 108??Saturday morning...isn't that like 1-2 days earlier then the other models? And it gets better too. It stalls it over the Delmarva after that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 hooking back in at 180....caught under the block. Probably shouldn't have made it that far east anyway with that gigantic block in the way. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's possible that there may be a weakness there and with the storm still having tropical characteristics...once it sniffs that weakness...it tends to head towards it. Perhaps that's what is going on. Latent heat input actually even fails that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 hooking back in at 180....caught under the block. Probably shouldn't have made it that far east anyway with that gigantic block in the way. Who knows. You do - ding ding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 hooking back in at 180....caught under the block. Probably shouldn't have made it that far east anyway with that gigantic block in the way. Who knows. Heading towards Nova Scotia and is bombing thanks to the energy being ingested from the second upper low/trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Consensus? Step in the direction to a higher potential major event. ECMWF (the constancy is undeniable) model run is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hearing the gem is following the GFS... Just a prelim, haven't seen to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Disagree - sorry. I think this is a tropical-hybrid impactor, buut I've been wrong before. This run is flat wrong in handing as is - I'm not saying the final outcome...just what seems reasonable at this point. I agree the impact could be much more, but a few more things need to work out before the alarms sound for a true Euro impact. Nothing wrong with saying a siggy storm is possible for the time being. Confidence will increase if the GEFS and EC continue with earlier solutions. That's usually a good way to play it...we obviously know what the high end is. I thought this run was good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS was right last time it showed an eastward drift with Debbie. However this time the storm is trapped below a block. I don't think a retrograding Ull is going to break down a ridge to the North of a TC like the GFS is showing. I guess it's possible because I'm an meteorological moron, but I will doubt it unless the Euro caves in i'm sticking with it. That ridge should hold unless it is shoved from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 In the old thread Superstorm93 said Coincidentally, indeedsnow posted the link right after my post. But here it is. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Man..if ERSL would only do this for extratropical cyclones too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Hearing the gem is following the GFS... Just a prelim, haven't seen to confirm. The b&w maps didn't even initialize yet on weatheroffice.ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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