N. OF PIKE Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 no mike it should be anomalous, i.e it is different (more west bend modeled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Is that supposed to read "analagous" and not "anomalous"? My thinking too. As luck would have it, we're traveling to Worcester for the kids' Fall break this weekend to see family and friends. Guess where I'll try to persuade everyone to go on Monday... Cape, anyone? Not much chance to see TCs now that we're in CO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Op wise No I meant operational and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Done for Irene too I think. Wasn't sure if they did all of CONUS or just parts for Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 What does this storm have to do with an election on November 6th? Umm... if there is major damage and power is out for a week+, it will most certainly affect the election. Really? I was going to say the opposite... starting yesterday I was amazed at how much New England media was talking about this storm 6 days out. That's good that local media is bringing it up... I'm just disappointed in the national media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Im not going to be in SW CT for this one, but man I kinda wish I was. March 2010 will be given a good run for its money. Hopefully CL&P is ready to go if the models verify verbatim It's CL&P...they won't be. I think I'm going to buy a generator tomorrow. Previous owners had a switch installed, so everything is all wired. Just need the generator. I find it kinda funny we had the October storm last year...then a year of boredom only to be broken by another huge October storm. Everything coming full circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'm surprised BOX is only going with chance POPs throughout the event at this point.... both BTV and GYX are on board with multiple periods of likely POPs with 60%<. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NHC @ 5pm WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The model agreement is scary and reminds me of the Superstorm of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's amazing how little the media is talking about this considering the threat the models show as well as the upcoming election... Take this article http://news.blogs.cn...nger/?hpt=hp_t3 for example: [/size][/font][/color] Its everywhere up here on local news, getting asked all day about it by staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 no mike it should be anomalous, i.e it is different (more west bend modeled) My thinking too. As luck would have it, we're traveling to Worcester for the kids' Fall break this weekend to see family and friends. Guess where I'll try to persuade everyone to go on Monday... Cape, anyone? Not much chance to see TCs now that we're in CO.... Since he's comparing to two other storm track, he should be saying analagous to. Which of course is anomalous to climatology. Meanwhile, you know Worcester has become the new vacation hot spot in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 No I meant operational and ensembles. GFS in Maine, Euro in VA, Ggem in CC thats what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's CL&P...they won't be. I think I'm going to buy a generator tomorrow. Previous owners had a switch installed, so everything is all wired. Just need the generator. I find it kinda funny we had the October storm last year...then a year of boredom only to be broken by another huge October storm. Everything coming full circle. Yeah exactly what im thinking. I was lucky last year that despite nearly a foot of snow we only lost power for a day. That being said, the state had their worst power outage event in history so hopefully we dont see a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Yeah exactly what im thinking. I was lucky last year that despite nearly a foot of snow we only lost power for a day. That being said, the state had their worst power outage event in history so hopefully we dont see a repeat. If this is historic as the models predict, of course it would be as bad as last year. Even with a lot of the upgrades they have done and tree cutting work, you can only plan so much for a event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If this is historic as the models predict, of course it would be as bad as last year. Even with a lot of the upgrades they have done and tree cutting work, you can only plan so much for a event like this. The one thing I would say is that this time around, theres not going to be as much weight on the trees. 12" of heavy snow can, as we say, absolutely destroy trees. We obviously wont see that this time, but the trade off is more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I forgot that my birthday is Sunday...would be crazy to get a damaging storm two years in a row right around my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Ensembles mean collection ECMWF: CMC: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z Ensembles mean collection Very pretty--thanks for posting those. Yeah that's a bit much... many, many lives lost? We don't live in the 1700s anymore and its not like Katrina and waiting for a depression below sea level to fill with water. Darwin will always take a few people with him in each storm, but many, many lives lost? From what? Starvation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 "...we never have and may never see agaion..." seems like I read this from you once every 6 months - haha ...Late August 2011 (hurricane/ tropical storm) ...Late last October (snow) There may be a severe event that I missed from this past spring where there was kevin hype. And the list goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I speak for myself when I say I hope the hurricane gusts miss my area. Trying to sell my house with trees all over my yard and damage to my home wouldn't be easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Few things I got word about... a friend with connections to emergency management that EMA's in New England are closely watching this storm right now. The best part is IF this storm verifies I am going to be working in the Weather Office for our 5:30 newscast on Tuesday which IF they verifiy is when this storm will affect us in Vermont. Looking in model land it kinda scares me how Euro, JMA and now the trend in the GFS is showing more of a retrograde storm thanks to the intense high and if it makes interaction with the mid lattitudes... This could be an interesting and long weekend for us! We might be doing extra soundings here at Lyndon State thanks to this release SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... **SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... -------------------------------------- THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Newb question: I know a lot of the north country is past peak and many trees are leafless - and freezes have put flora into dormancy. Do dormant forests impact the soil's ability to absorb water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I understand this guy Lundberg's concern, seems natural to suspect potential for a major disaster if the mega-low pressure verifies. However, being an optimist, I would say either (a) the storm comes in more realistic at 950 mbs and is not that catastrophic, or if it becomes obvious with 24-36h to go that a disaster is looming, modern communications, civil defense and emergency management all combine to save a lot of lives. Not much could be done to save property at that time scale.People have the right to be informed about risks and make their own decisions. A prudent person looking at all available evidence might want to move some valuable items, vehicles, boats etc, out of harm's way and take the small losses if over-cautious as insurance against the much larger losses if one waited too long. But that's each individual's decision. If this thing is still on track to hit the coast in the 940s by 24h to landfall then large numbers of people will be in harm's way and the emergency managers are going to be stressed to the limit to figure out who to move where. This is not like NO where the decision is relatively easy, you move everyone to either one safe place in the city or out of the track. Like in this case, where is out of the track? Who is at risk of being flooded or wind impacted strongly enough that moving is a better option than staying put. How many days will power be out afterwards? Those are the variables, I suppose, that would be on the minds of officials but any given individual can help out in advance by leaving the area voluntarily. If you're not working and can afford it, I would get the heck out of the northeast for two weeks starting maybe tomorrow or Friday. Why not? You've earned a holiday. Go see uncle Joe in Kokomo or sit on a beach in Barbados. That's the word I would be putting out, the more non-essential residents of the northeast who could voluntarily get out of Dodge before the weekend the easier the mandatory part becomes. If nothing else, this will stimulate the travel business. By the way, does anyone else find it ironic that this comes at the very end of a presidential term for a guy who said he would stop the rise of the oceans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 or Jeff in Maine I have one, Ice Storm 98 made me get one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 LOL Maybe I'll finally have need to use my generator. Or, maybe Jay will need one in Baltimore. You didn't use it last October? My brother and I wired in a transfer switch a few weeks ago so I can have furnace etc if needed. Got a 10000W Subaru ready to roll. I just got my old Coleman 5000W repaired so if needed I'll loan that out to neighbors... or sell on CL for huge profit. (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The 18z NAM actually appears to be a bit sharper with the trough than the 12z run...certainly more in line with the euro in that regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Newb question: I know a lot of the north country is past peak and many trees are leafless - and freezes have put flora into dormancy. Do dormant forests impact the soil's ability to absorb water? There's a lot more run-off in dormant forests... flooding would be more severe than if everything was in full bloom and sucking water up. I noticed that with our last rain event when we got about 2" in 12 hours... sharp rises on all the mountain streams/creeks and rivers, with almost all of the rain running off. Dormant root systems will mean the flood threat may be higher...similar in the spring prior to leaf out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Correct. I'm still trying to figure out how so many people are going to die from this storm. Low central pressure sucking your brains out? Florida gets hit with hurricanes all the time and there aren't many, many lives lost every time. Its going to be a strong storm, but its not a CAT 5. Its like Blizz all summer with the many deadly heat waves we had where folks were just dropping on the sidewalk. If we were to get major flooding issues I could perhaps see some deaths occurring from people trying to drive through floods or maybe a tree falling onto someones house or car but to use that type of language right now is not really necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Best of luck to you folks down there. From some of the posts I've read on here it sounds like some of you won't make it. Stay safe everyone. Could be quite the blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Did Sandy really strengthen over Jamaica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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